Poll Archives | Associated Press GfK Poll

Feb
22

AP-GfK Poll: Obama benefits from the economy’s slow climb, earning better grades from both parties

By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama is reaping political benefits from the country’s brighter economic mood. A new poll shows that Republicans and Democrats alike are increasingly saying the nation is heading in the right direction and most independents now approve the way he’s addressing the nation’s post-recession period.

But trouble could be ahead: Still-struggling Americans are fretting over rising gasoline prices. Just weeks before the summer travel season begins, the Associated Press-GfK survey finds pump prices rising in importance and most people unhappy with how Democratic president has handled the issue.

It’s seemingly no coincidence that Obama this week is promoting the expansion of domestic oil and gas exploration and the development of new forms of energy.

It’s his latest attempt to show that he, more than any of the Republican presidential contenders, knows that voters’ pocketbooks remain pinched even as the economy improves overall. And on that question of empathy, solid majorities continue to view him as someone who “understands the problems of ordinary Americans” and “cares about people like you,” the AP-GfK survey found.

There is evidence that the nation is becoming markedly more optimistic, and that Obama benefits from that attitude.

Thirty percent in the poll describe the economy as “good,” a 15-point increase since December and the highest level since the AP-GfK poll first asked the question in 2009. Roughly the same share say the economy got better in the past month, while 18 percent said it got worse, the most positive read in over a year.

Looking ahead, four in 10 said they expect the economy to get better in the next year and a third said they think the number of unemployed people in the U.S. will decrease, the highest share on either question since last spring. A quarter of those surveyed said they expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months, while 31 percent said it would stay the same, the poll found.

As optimism has risen, Obama has received a corresponding bump in his approval rating for handling the economy. Forty-eight percent now say they approve of how he’s handling it, up 9 points from December.

Still, for some it’s hard to sense an improvement — or give Obama credit for it — when any extra money is being gobbled up at the gasoline pump.

”I give him credit for trying to make improvements, but I don’t believe it’s had that much effect,” said Michael Lee Real of Indianola, Iowa, a city water authority worker who counts himself as a Republican-leaning independent. The cost of gasoline is “one of the big things,” says Real, 58. “It fluctuates so much, it makes it hard for me to budget my money.”

Overall, seven of 10 respondents called gas prices deeply important, up 6 points from December. Those who view gas prices as “extremely important” rose 9 points, to nearly 39 percent.

The average cost of a gallon has risen 30 cents in that time, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Views on the president’s handling of the issue are about the same as in December: Six in 10 respondents disapprove, including 36 percent who strongly feel that way, while 39 percent approve.

Presidents don’t have a great deal of control over oil or gas prices, which now are being influenced by higher U.S. demand and tensions over Iran’s nuclear program. But few factors generate as much interest and anxiety among Americans. The rise in prices, faced almost daily by voters, could undercut Obama’s argument that he’s strengthening the economy and making families more financially secure.

Though Obama’s approval rating on the economy has climbed, his negative rating on handling gas prices is stagnant. Just 39 percent approve of what he’s doing there, and 58 percent disapprove.

Republicans, locked in battle for the right to face Obama in the general election, expect gas prices to be a top issue by the time Americans set out on their summer vacations. The four vying for the GOP nomination already are warning of higher prices and are pushing for more drilling and relaxed regulations on domestic oil production. Some are talking dollars and cents: Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is dangling the prospect of $2.50-a-gallon gas if he’s elected; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is warning of $5-a-gallon gas if he’s not.

Generally, the public’s approval of Obama has risen with the economy’s climb from recession.

The unemployment rate dropped to 8.3 percent in January, the lowest level in nearly three years. The housing market is flashing signs of health ahead of the spring buying season, with mortgage rates still low, sales of previously occupied homes at their highest level since May 2010, and more first-time buyers making purchases.

The nation is far from a full recovery. Millions of Americans remain out of work. And Wall Street investors still worry over the details of Greece’s economic bailout plan.

According to the poll, Obama’s overall approval rating ticked upward slightly, from 44 percent in December to 49 percent now.

The 9-point approval increase for his handling of the economy comes from Democrats and independents, constituencies crucial to Obama’s re-election hopes. Among Democrats, his approval on the economy has shot from 67 percent to 83 percent. Among independents, 49 percent now approve, up from 38 percent in December.

Obama also gained support among women during a period in which his administration seemed to stumble over whether religious employers should be forced to pay for contraception. In overall approval, Obama rebounded from 43 percent among women in December to 53 percent now, according to the survey.

And half of all adults now say Obama deserves to be re-elected, a 7-point rise from December that reverses a downward trend that had been in place since May.

More than eight in 10 Democrats say he should be elected to a second term, and half of all independents feel the same way, the survey found.

The AP-GfK poll was conducted Feb. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and had a margin of error of 4.1 percent.

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AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

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Online:

www.ap-GfKpoll.com

How the poll on President Obama and the economy was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Feb
22

AP-GfK Poll: GOP voters split between Romney, Santorum; Obama tops all 4 Republicans

By LAURIE KELLMAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — A surging Rick Santorum is running even with Mitt Romney atop the Republican presidential field, but neither candidate is faring well against President Barack Obama eight months before Americans vote, a new survey shows.

Obama tops 50 percent support when matched against each of the four GOP candidates and holds a significant lead over each of them, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. Republicans, meanwhile, are divided on whether they’d rather see Romney or Santorum capture the nomination, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul lagging behind. It’s a troubling sign for the better-funded Romney as the GOP race heads toward crucial votes in his home state of Michigan, in Arizona and in an array of states on Super Tuesday, March 6.

”I’d pick Santorum, because it seems Romney may be waffling on a few issues and I’m not sure I trust him,” said Thomas Stehlin, 66, of St. Clair Shores, Mich. He thinks the Detroit-born son of a Michigan governor is facing a strong challenge from Santorum in his home state because of his tangled answers on the auto industry bailout.

Also, he says, there’s this: Romney, the self-described can-do turnaround artist of the corporate world and the troubled Salt Lake City Olympics, with his millions of dollars, has been unable to vanquish his political opponents.

”That may be the reason right there,” said Stehlin, a retired government worker and a Republican. “He spends lots of money and he doesn’t get anywhere.”

Nationally, Republicans are evenly split between Romney and Santorum. The poll found 33 percent would most like to see Santorum get the nomination, while 32 percent prefer Romney. Gingrich and Paul each had 15 percent support.

Romney’s fall from presumed front-runner to struggling establishment favorite has given his opponents an opening as he tries to expand his support. His Republican rivals have stepped in claiming to be a more consistent conservative and viable opponent against Obama, and each of the last three AP-GfK polls has found a different contender battling Romney for the top spot. But Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator and abortion foe, has hit his stride at a key moment in the nomination contest.

Santorum’s spike comes as satisfaction with the field of candidates remains tepid and interest in the contest is cools. About 6 in 10 Republicans in the poll say they are satisfied with the people running for the nomination, stagnant since December and below the 66 percent that felt that way in October. Only 23 percent are strongly satisfied with the field and 4 in 10 said they are dissatisfied with the candidates running, the poll found. And deep interest in the race is slipping: Just 40 percent of Republicans say they have a great deal of interest in following the contest, compared with 48 percent in December.

”It seems like in the last month or so everything’s just chilled out,” said James Jackson of Fort Worth, Texas, a 40-year-old independent who leans Republican. “I just haven’t been following it lately.”

Santorum remains Romney’s biggest threat. He won GOP contests in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado, stunning the GOP establishment that Romney has methodically courted since his first bid for the GOP nomination in 2008. The poll suggested more people are getting to know and like Santorum, with 44 percent of all adults saying they have a favorable impression of him, compared with 25 percent in December. The share with negative views has grown as well, with 42 percent having an unfavorable opinion of Santorum.

Among Republicans in that time period, Santorum has shot from 37 percent to 70 percent favorable.

There’s evidence that Santorum’s comments about social issues may not have hurt him so far among women.

The former Pennsylvania senator has been unapologetic in his opposition to abortion and his concerns about working moms, women in combat and contraception — some of the many examples he cites while making the case that he would draw a clearer contrast than Romney against Obama.

For all that, there’s little evident gender gap between Romney and Santorum, the AP-GfK poll showed. Santorum, who made some of the comments while the poll was being conducted Feb. 16-20, runs even with Romney among both Republican men and women. And Republican women may be rallying to his defense: Seventy-five percent of GOP women have a favorable impression of Santorum, compared with 66 percent of Republican men, the poll found.

The enduring split between Romney and whichever Republican opponent is up at any moment reflects a familiar dispute in the broader GOP over whether to focus on social issues or financial matters in presidential races. According to exit and entrance polls conducted so far this cycle, Romney has carried voters who called the economy their top issue in 4 out of 5 states, while Santorum has drawn broader support among those calling abortion their top concern. Abortion has lagged well behind the economy as a priority for voters through the Nevada caucuses, but the recent focus on social issues in the campaign could increase its importance.

Among conservative Republicans, Santorum holds a decisive edge, with 41 percent preferring him and 27 percent supporting Romney. But ask moderate and liberal Republicans the same question and the results flip: Forty percent favor Romney while 20 percent prefer Santorum.

Similarly, tea party Republicans also favor Santorum over Romney, 44 percent to 23 percent. Non-tea partyers tilt toward Romney, with 38 percent preferring him and 25 percent supporting Santorum.

Santorum enjoys an edge among Republicans age 45 and up, those paying the closest attention to the GOP race and born-again and evangelical voters.

Looking ahead to the general election, Obama holds an 8-point lead over Romney, 9 points over Santorum and 10 points over Gingrich or Paul, the survey found.

Notably, the survey showed the president dominating among independents, a group central to Obama’s 2008 victory, whose support for him had faltered in recent months. According to the poll, 6 in 10 independents would choose Obama over any of the Republicans.

There was good news for Republicans, too: Any of the four Republican candidates would likely top Obama among those age 65 and over, as well as among whites without college degrees.

For their part, Democrats were watching with some glee.

”It’s been a great show,” said Karen Clark, 38, a radio personality from Raleigh, N.C., who’s voting for Obama.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Feb. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

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Associated Press writers Dennis Junius and Stacy Anderson contributed to this report.

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Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 elections and Republican candidates was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including 450 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Jan
05

AP-Petside.com Poll: 7 in 10 pet owners: Shelters should kill only animals too sick or aggressive for adoption

By SUE MANNING, Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Seven in 10 pet owners say they believe animal shelters should be allowed to euthanize animals only when they are too sick to be treated or too aggressive to be adopted.

Only a quarter of the people who took part in a recent AP-Petside.com poll said animal shelters should sometimes be allowed to put animals down as a population control measure.

Gisela Aguila, 51, of Miramar, Fla., believes shelter animals should only be euthanized when there is no chance they’ll be adopted — for example, if they are extremely ill or aggressive. “I don’t think shelters should be euthanizing animals to control the population,” she said.

She’d like to see an end to shelters destroying animals when they run out of room, saying, “We are way too civilized of a society to allow this.”

But Leslie Surprenant, 53, of Saugerties, N.Y., believes shelters should be allowed to control populations. She says no-kill shelters that only accept animals with good prospects for adoption or that turn away animals once the shelter reaches capacity do not solve the problem.

“That doesn’t truly mean no-kill shelters. It means there are more animals out on the streets being hit by cars and starving and living in Dumpsters,” said Surprenant, who has two dogs and a cat. “It does not mean the general population is lower; it just means that they’ve opted not to kill.”

Surprenant believes spaying and neutering is the way to go. In fact, higher rates of spaying and neutering in recent decades have cut the number of abandoned puppies and kittens, which in turn has cut euthanasia rates. Before 1970, about 20 million animals were euthanized each year in this country. In 2011, fewer than 4 million abandoned animals were euthanized.

Younger pet owners are most likely to favor no-kill policies, with 79 percent of those under 30 saying shelters should only euthanize animals that are untreatable or too aggressive, compared with 67 percent of those age 50 or over saying that.

The poll results are encouraging to leaders of the nation’s no-kill movement, who’d like to see the U.S. become a “no-kill nation” with homes for every adoptable pet, and euthanasia reserved only for extremely ill or aggressive animals.

Any plan will take teamwork between shelters with government contracts that must accept every animal and the no-kill shelters that often only take animals they can help, said Ed Sayres, president and CEO of the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals.

Rich Avanzino, president of Alameda-based Maddie’s Fund, pioneered no-kill in San Francisco in the early ’90s through a pact between the open-admission city shelter and the local Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals.

“We are just a breath away from doing what is right for the animals,” Avanzino said.

He believes the country can achieve no-kill status by 2015, partly due to corporate giving to animal causes, which totaled about $30 million in 2010 and is expected to reach $70 million by 2015. That money can help with spaying, neutering and outreach, he said.

Public attitudes are also changing, with more people saying it’s unacceptable for pets to languish or die in an animal shelter, Avanzino said.

Avanzino pioneered the no-kill concept in San Francisco. Sayres succeeded him and nurtured it, then went to New York and implemented it there in a much bigger way. The model is the same, but instead of two partner agencies like in San Francisco, New York has 155, Sayres said.

About 44,000 animals enter New York City shelters each year. Since Sayres has been there, the euthanasia rate has dropped from 74 percent to 27 percent.

The ASPCA has also teamed up with 11 communities from Tampa, Fla., to Spokane, Wash., in no-kill efforts, Sayres said.

He believes he will see a no-kill nation, at least for dogs, in his lifetime. Cats may take a little longer because of the large feral population, he said.

The euthanasia issue attracted some attention this week when it was reported that a stray cat being held at a West Valley City, Utah, animal shelter survived two trips to the shelter’s gas chamber. The shelter has stopped trying to kill the cat, named Andrea, and she has been adopted. Shelter officials are investigating why the gassing failed.

Best Friends Animal Society operates the country’s largest no-kill sanctuary for abandoned and abused animals. The Kanab, Utah, preserve is home to 1,700 dogs, cats, birds, rabbits, horses and wildlife undergoing rehabilitation, said Best Friends director Gregory Castle.

More than 800 grass-roots rescue organizations belong to Best Friends’ No More Homeless Pets Network and are working to make their communities no-kill, Castle said. Attendance at an annual conference for network members has grown from 250 in 2001 to 1,300 last year.

The sanctuary’s newest venture is a groundbreaking effort involving what Castle believes is the largest public-private partnership ever forged in the no-kill movement.

Best Friends is going to operate a shelter for the Department of Animal Services in Los Angeles as an adoption and spay and neuter center, he said. All animals will come from six open-admission Los Angeles city shelters.

The coalition’s initial goal is 3,000 adoptions and 6,000 sterilization procedures, Castle said.

Differences in the varying no-kill campaigns are mostly a matter of nuance, Castle said, and how you define sick and aggressive.

Nathan Winograd, director of the Oakland-based No Kill Advocacy Center, believes 95 percent of all animals entering shelters can be adopted or treated. And even though the other 5 percent might be hopelessly injured, ill or vicious, he said they should not all be doomed.

Some, if not most of them, can be cared for in hospice centers or sanctuaries, he said. As for pit bulls and other dogs with aggressive reputations, he said shelters need to do a better job of trying to find them homes.

The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

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AP Global Director of Polling Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

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Online: http://www.petside.com/no-kill-shelters

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on no-kill shelters was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17, 2011. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all pet owners in the U.S. were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Dec
29

AP-GfK Poll: Americans look back at 2011 with a shudder, greet 2012 with open arms

By JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are hopeful for what 2012 will bring for their families and the country, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll, though most say 2011 was a year they would rather forget.

Nearly seven in 10 say the year gone by was a bad one, more than double those who consider it a success, according to the poll. But 62 percent are optimistic about what 2012 will bring for the nation, and more, 78 percent, are hopeful about the year their family will have in 2012.

Jeff Wolfe, 33, of Farmington, W.Va., said 2011 treated him well because he was able to find steady work as a lineman. But for the rest of the nation, things were “pretty rough,” with so many Americans looking for jobs, he noted.

“For the first time since 2009, I worked all year,” he said. Wolfe said he lost work in 2008 and again in 2010. But in 2011, the father of two school-age children said he was able to catch up on bills, buy his wife a new car and renovate his home.

Overall, the poll found 68 percent of Americans described 2011 as a bad year, compared with 29 percent who felt it was a good one.

A partisan divide, much like the one that ruled Washington this year, seems the only split in public opinion on 2011. Democrats were most likely to view 2011 positively (40 percent called it good), while independents and Republicans were less effusive. Beyond that, the poll found general agreement that 2011 is best left in the past.

Mary Burke, 57, of Ridgeland, S.C., felt economic pain in 2011. She saw prices rise for all of her expenses, from her light bill to groceries. “Paying $5 for a jar of mayonnaise is outrageous,” she said.

Food and gas prices surged in 2011, but the most recent Consumer Price Index shows inflation leveling off. November statistics from the government showed a year-over-year inflation rate of 3.4 percent, the smallest such rise since April.

The AP-GfK poll found consumers are sensing the change. Just 18 percent of adults expect consumer prices to rise at a faster pace in the coming year, the lowest share to say so since the poll first asked the question in March. Most (51 percent) expect prices to rise at the same rate or more slowly.

And as the nation’s economic fortunes overall appear to be tilting slightly positive, the public’s expectations for the economy in the coming year are at their highest point since spring. According to the poll, 37 percent expect economic improvement in the next 12 months, compared with 24 percent who think the economy will slide downhill. That’s the first time since May that significantly more people said things will get better than get worse.

On a personal level, 36 percent think their household’s financial situation will improve over the next 12 months, while 11 percent think it will worsen. Americans’ financial ebbs and flows affect their personal outlook for 2012. Those whose households have faced a job loss in the past six months or who describe their current financial situation as poor are less optimistic about what 2012 holds for them and their families than others, though that does not carry over to their forecast for the nation in 2012.

Optimism about the nation’s path varies with views of the economy’s direction. Those who say things have looked better in the past month are generally optimistic (79 percent), while just half of those who say things are getting worse feel positive about what 2012 holds for the country. And about 6 in 10 of those who distrust the two major political parties to handle the economy or job creation are pessimistic about how 2012 will turn out for the nation.

Burke said she is angered by politicians in Washington who she believes fail to look out for the interests of the American people.

“They don’t care about me and you,” she said. “They only care how they are going to line their pockets.” As for the economy and nation improving in 2012, she said, “I pray and hope.”

The partisan divide in impressions of 2011 persists in the outlook for 2012, with Democrats more optimistic than either Republicans or independents. But expectations for next year’s presidential contest appear not to be a factor. Most partisans on both sides foresee victory for their side in the November 2012 presidential election: Three-quarters of Democrats say they think President Barack Obama will win re-election; three-quarters of Republicans say he will not.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

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Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK poll on the public’s outlook on 2012 was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline telephone and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Dec
23

AP-GfK Poll: Why do kids have faith in Santa? Because parents do; 8 in 10 grown-ups believed as tots

By CONNIE CASS, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Why do kids believe a chubby guy in a flying sleigh can deliver joy across America? Because their parents do. A whopping 84 percent of grown-ups were once children who trusted in Santa’s magic, and lots cling to it still.

Things are changing fast these days, with toddlers wishing for iPads, grade schoolers emailing their Christmas lists and moms wrestling over bargain toys at midnight sales. Despite all the pressures on the rituals of the season, an AP-GfK poll confirms that families are sticking by old St. Nick.

“It’s important for kids to have something to believe in,” says great-grandmother Wanda Smith of Norman, Okla.

And so they do. Year after year, Santa Claus survives the scoffers and the Scrooges and the 6-year-old playground skeptics. He endures belittling commercials that portray him shopping at Target or taking directions from an iPhone. He shrugs off scolds who say his bagful of toys overshadows the reason for the season.

Two-thirds of parents with kids under 18 say Santa’s an important part of their celebrations this year. Moms, especially, have a soft spot for the man in red _ 71 percent of them say he’s important, and that’s a big jump from 58 percent just five years ago.

His overall popularity is up slightly from an AP-AOL poll in 2006, before the recession hit. In these bleaker times of homes lost to foreclosure and parents sweating out their next paychecks, the poll shows Santa riding high with families both wealthy and poor.

Maybe that’s because the big guy’s always known how to stretch a dollar to make a kid smile.

Smith, whose childhood gifts were mostly handmade by her mother _ things like cookies and knit scarves _ remembers that every year Santa Claus managed to put one present under the tree for her to share with her two brothers (four more siblings came later).

“One year it was a bicycle, one year we had a sled. One year we got a puppy _ his name was Jack and he was a border collie,” recalls Smith, now 70.

“We didn’t have a lot,” she said, “but we didn’t know it. Our mother and daddy made it a wonderful time for us.”

In multicultural America, Father Christmas isn’t just for Christians any more. Three-fourths of non-Christian adults say they believed in Santa when they were children. And half feel he’s important to their holiday celebrations now.

Developmental psychologist Cyndy Scheibe, who’s been interviewing kids about Santa since 1986, said lots of Jewish children told her that Santa Claus was real, even though he didn’t stop at their houses on Christmas Eve.

And many non-Christian parents embrace Santa because they see Christmas serving as a secular as well as religious holiday in the U.S., she said.

“Santa Claus is more than someone who just comes and gives you a present, it’s this whole spirit of giving and magic that you get to be a part of and celebrate,” said Scheibe, an associate professor at Ithaca College in New York.

That’s what keeps Santa going over the decades and across cultures, she said. “That, and there’s almost nothing as much fun as getting to see your kid’s face so completely excited.”

Scheibe knows firsthand. She used to climb a ladder to the roof every Christmas, her daughter watching, to leave a key tied to a big red bow, because they didn’t have a fireplace.

It’s not all snowflakes and mistletoe in Santaland, however. Even among Christians, there’s tension about how big a role, if any, a jolly old elf deserves in the celebration of Christ’s birth.

Almost half of Americans polled said Santa detracts from the religious significance of Christmas more than he enhances it.

When she was growing up, Naomi Stenberg’s fundamentalist Baptist parents didn’t want her mixed up with Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny or Halloween trick-or-treating.

“I didn’t understand why everybody else got to believe in Santa, and me and my brother didn’t,” says Stenberg, 32, now a stay-at-home mom in Baxter, Minn. “I felt left out.”

Her own three children have gotten the full Kris Kringle experience, but sometimes she feels ill-equipped to handle the tough queries from her youngest, 6-year-old Rylen.

“She’s been asking questions like how does Santa fit through the chimney,” she said. “I don’t know how to answer things like that.”

Matt Hoyt vividly remembers seeing Santa’s black boots peeking out from behind his bedroom curtains when he was a boy. He froze. “I was just trying to pretend to be asleep,” Hoyt said, “so I’d get my presents.”

Only much later did he realize those were probably the black shoes of his dad, hanging his new “Star Wars” drapes. Now Hoyt, a 35-year-old computer engineer from Houston, is awaiting the birth of his first child in April, and wondering how long that child will believe.

In the poll, the median age when adults said they outgrew Santa was 8. Hoyt suspects his child’s generation will turn away even earlier. After all, “They’ve got Google at their fingertips.”

But Santa needn’t worry. They’ll come back someday … when they’re parents.

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AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

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AP-GfK Poll: Hark! The herald angels sing all year long: Poll finds most believe in ethereal spirits

Angels play a major role in the Christmas story, but a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows they are a year-round presence for most, with 77 percent of adults saying they believe in their existence.

The poll shows belief in angels is primarily tied to religion, with 88 percent of Christians, 95 percent of evangelical Christians and 94 percent of those who attend weekly religious services of any sort saying they believe in such ethereal beings.

But belief in angels is fairly widespread even among the less religious. A majority of non-Christians think angels exist, as do more than 4 in 10 of those who never attend religious services.

The finding mirrors a 2006 AP-AOL poll, which found 81 percent believed in angels.

How the poll on Santa Claus and angels was conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Santa Claus and angels was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Dec
16

AP-GfK Poll: Majority says Obama deserves to be voted out of office

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and KEN THOMAS, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Entering 2012, President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects are essentially a 50-50 proposition, with a majority saying the president deserves to be voted out of office despite concerns about the Republican alternatives, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

Obama’s overall poll numbers suggest he could be in jeopardy of losing re-election even as the public’s outlook on the economy appears to be improving, the AP-GfK poll found. For the first time since spring, more said the economy got better in the past month than said it got worse. The president’s approval rating on unemployment shifted upward — from 40 percent in October to 45 percent in the latest poll — as the jobless rate fell to 8.6 percent last month, its lowest level since March 2009.

But Obama’s approval rating on his handling of the economy overall remains stagnant: 39 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove.

Heading into his re-election campaign, the president faces a conflicted public that does not support his steering of the economy, the most dominant issue for Americans, or his reforms to health care, one of his signature accomplishments, yet are grappling with whether to replace him with Republican contenders Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich.

The poll found an even divide on whether Americans expect Obama to be re-elected next year.

For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 percent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 percent said he deserves another term. The numbers mark a reversal since last May, when 53 percent said Obama should be re-elected while 43 percent said he didn’t deserve four more years.

Obama’s overall job approval stands at a new low: 44 percent approve while 54 percent disapprove. The president’s standing among independents is worse: 38 percent approve while 59 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, the president holds steady with an approval rating of 78 percent while only 12 percent of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing.

“I think he’s doing the best he can. The problem is the Congress won’t help at all,” said Rosario Navarro, a Democrat and a 44-year-old truck driver from Fresno, Calif., who voted for Obama in 2008 and intends to support him again.

Robin Dein, a 54-year-old homemaker from Villanova, Pa., who is an independent, said she supported Republican John McCain in 2008 and has not been impressed with Obama’s economic policies. She intends to support Romney if he wins the GOP nomination.

“(Obama) spent the first part of his presidency blaming Bush for everything, not that he was innocent, and now his way of solving anything is by spending more money,” she said.

Despite the soft level of support, many are uncertain whether a Republican president would be a better choice. Asked whom they would support next November, 47 percent of adults favored Obama compared with 46 percent for Romney, a former Massachusetts governor. Against Gingrich, the president holds a solid advantage, receiving 51 percent compared with 42 percent for the former House speaker.

The potential matchups paint a better picture for the president among independents. Obama receives 45 percent of non-aligned adults compared with 41 percent for Romney. Against Gingrich, Obama holds a wide lead among independents, with 54 percent supporting the president and 31 percent backing the former Georgia congressman.

Another piece of good news for Obama: people generally like him personally. Obama’s personal favorability rating held steady at 53 percent, with 46 percent viewing him unfavorably. About three-quarters called him likeable.

The economy remains a source of pessimism, though the poll suggests the first positive movement in public opinion on the economy in months. One in five said the economy improved in the last month, double the share saying so in October. Still most expect it to stay the same or get worse.

“I suppose you could make some sort of argument that it’s getting better, but I’m not sure I even see that,” said independent voter John Bailey, a 61-year-old education consultant from East Jordan, Mich. “I think it’s bad and it’s gotten worse under (Obama’s) policies. At best, it’s going to stay bad.”

Despite the high rate of joblessness, the poll found some optimism on the economy. Although 80 percent described the economy as “poor,” respondents describing it “very poor” fell from 43 percent in October to 34 percent in the latest poll, the lowest since May. Twenty percent said the economy got better in the past month while 37 percent said they expected the economy to improve next year.

Yet plenty of warning signs remain for Obama. Only 26 percent said the United States is headed in the right direction while 70 percent said the country was moving in the wrong direction.

The president won a substantial number of women voters in 2008 yet there does not appear to be a significant tilt toward Obama among women now. The poll found 44 percent of women say Obama deserves a second term, down from 51 percent in October, while 43 percent of men say the president should be re-elected.

About two-thirds of white voters without college degrees say Obama should be a one-term president, while 33 percent of those voters say he should get another four years. Among white voters with a college degree, 57 percent said Obama should be voted out of office.

The poll found unpopularity for last year’s health care reform bill, one of Obama’s major accomplishments. About half of the respondents oppose the health care law and support for it dipped to 29 percent from 36 percent in June. Just 15 percent said the federal government should have the power to require all Americans to buy health insurance.

Even among Democrats, the health care law has tepid support. Fifty percent of Democrats supported the health care law, compared with 59 percent of Democrats last June. Only about a quarter of independents back the law.

The president has taken a more populist tone in his handling of the economy, arguing that the wealthy should pay more in taxes to help pay for the extension of a payroll tax cut that would provide about $1,000 in tax cuts to a family earning about $50,000 a year. Among those with annual household incomes of $50,000 or less, Obama’s approval rating on unemployment climbed to 53 percent, from 43 percent in October.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted December 8-12 2011 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

___

Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Dec
15

AP-GfK Poll: Most Americans want payroll tax extension, remain furious with Congress, politics

By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Most Americans want Congress to vote to continue the payroll tax reduction, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll that comes as Democrats and Republicans wrestle over whether to extend the cut through 2012.

It’s the latest instance in which lawmakers on Capitol Hill have allowed partisan sniping to hold up a measure to put in place a policy that most Americans support, like ending the Bush tax cuts, cap and trade, and a surcharge on millionaires.

The dragged-out debate over whether to extend an expiring payroll tax reduction is one of many developments that have kept voters furious with their leaders all year. On the brink of the 2012 presidential and congressional elections, virtually all Americans are disappointed and frustrated with the political scene and nearly 6 in 10 say they are angry, the AP-GfK survey showed.

“It seems like there are parties that only want to get their agenda done,” said liquor store owner James Jacobsen, 47, of East Hartford, Conn. “They’re catering to special interests and not Americans. They are not representing the individual American.”

Nearly 6 in 10 respondents say they want Congress to pass the extension, according to the poll. Letting the payroll tax break expire would cost a family making $50,000 about $1,000.

Yet, Republicans and Democrats are rejecting each other’s proposals and trying to make law from what’s left, a tactic they’ve used all year on debates over the budget and the nation’s debt. The stalemates have caused a decline in confidence so severe that 15 percent of all adults and 32 percent of political independents say they don’t trust either party to manage the federal budget deficit.

Retired postal worker Larry Collier wishes Congress would get on with what help it can give — an assurance to 160 million American workers that their payroll tax cut will be extended through 2012.

What really galls him is the inequality: The same Congress hesitating to keep taxes low for working Americans also is hesitating to raise them on the wealthy. Congress this year ignored President Barack Obama’s proposal to let expire tax cuts on the richest Americans and impose additional taxes on those who make more than $1 million, though polls showed most people supported those policies.

“Those millionaires wouldn’t even miss that money,” Collier, of Pace, Fla., said, noting that he voted for George W. Bush and is now a Democrat.

Economic discontent has spilled over into the political sphere all year and could influence the 2012 presidential and congressional elections. Occupy Wall Street and other protests against inequality have grabbed some attention from politicians, with Democrats the most supportive. Last week, a group of demonstrators camped out on the National Mall, crashed stately holiday parties and marched on Capitol Hill, demanding that Congress extend the payroll tax and insurance for the long-term unemployed.

On the payroll tax deduction, 58 percent of respondents said they want Congress to extend the break, while 35 percent want it to expire.

Democrats and independents are the strongest supporters of continuing the tax cut, while Republicans were evenly divided. But the difference is more partisan than ideological: Conservatives supported an extension, 54 percent to the 42 percent who prefer to let the reduction expire.

Those with annual incomes below $50,000 more strongly support the extension compared with higher-income respondents, and seniors were more likely than younger adults to back the extension.

On Wednesday, there was little sign Congress was listening.

Democrats who control the Senate rejected a GOP-ruled House plan to extend the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits, but only with cuts to spending and sped-up approval of an oil pipeline. The Senate is crafting its own proposal in response.

If an agreement is not reached by the end of the year, payroll taxes will jump on Jan. 1 from this year’s 4.2 percent back to their normal level of 6.2 percent.

Americans are virtually out of patience, the polling shows. And their distrust crosses party lines.

“I really don’t feel that they are having the best interests of us as a people,” said Rogersville, Tenn., resident Andrea Stafford, 38, a single mother of two who has been unemployed since the summer.

“And when I say people,” she added, “I don’t mean millionaires and government officials. I’m talking about the normal person who gets up and fixes their children’s lunch and has to take off work when their child is sick because we don’t have nannies.”

The AP-GfK poll found congressional approval near its all-time low and nearly all Americans disappointed with politics. Eighty-four percent of the respondents disapproved of the way Congress is doing its job, with at least 8 in 10 Republicans, Democrats and independents feeling that way.

As for how to balance the federal budget, more now favor cutting government services as the best means to bring federal spending into balance. Sixty percent think lawmakers should focus on budget cuts over tax increases. That figure had been as low as 53 percent in August, during the showdown over raising the country’s debt limit.

The biggest shift on that question has come from independents. In the August poll, 37 percent said lawmakers should focus on increasing taxes and 42 percent said cutting services. Now, that divide stands at 28 percent for raising taxes and 59 percent for cutting services.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

___

AP Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta, writer Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Congress and the payroll tax was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org

Dec
14

Obama marking end of Iraq war

By ERICA WERNER
Associated Press

FORT BRAGG, N.C. (AP) — President Barack Obama saluted returning troops returning from Iraq Wednesday, declaring that the nearly nine-year conflict is ending honorably, “not with a final battle, but with a final march toward home.”

Marking the conclusion of the war at this military base that’s seen more than 200 deaths over nearly nine years of fighting in Iraq, Obama never tried to declare victory. It was a war that he opposed from the start, inherited as president and is now bringing to a close, leaving behind an Iraq still struggling.

But he sought to declare a noble end to a fight that has cost nearly 4,500 American lives and left about 32,000 wounded.

“The war in Iraq will soon belong to history, and your service belongs to the ages,” he said, applauding their “extraordinary achievement.”

All U.S. troops are to be out of Iraq Dec. 31, though Obama has pledged the U.S. will continue civilian assistance for Iraq as it faces an uncertain future in a volatile region of the world. Even as majorities in the U.S. public favor ending the war, some Republicans have criticized Obama’s withdrawal, arguing he’s leaving behind an unstable Iraq that could hurt U.S. interests and fall subject to influence from neighboring Iran.

Obama, appearing with first lady Michelle Obama, highlighted the human side of the war, reflecting on the bravery and sacrifices of U.S. forces now on their way back home. He recalled the start of the war, a time when he was only an Illinois state senator and many of the warriors before him were in grade school.

“We knew this day would come. We have known it for some time now,” he said. “But still, there is something profound about the end of a war that has lasted so long.”

Obama, who became president in part because of his opposition to the Iraq war, said the war faced twists and turns amid one constant: the patriotism and commitment of U.S. troops.

“It is harder to end a war, than to begin one,” he said.

Still, he made only passing mention of the enormous soul-searching the war caused in America, saying it “was a source of great controversy here at home, with patriots on both sides of the debate.” He did not mention that he had opposed it.

He noted the early battles that defeated and deposed Saddam Hussein and what he called “the grind of insurgency” — roadside bombs, snipers and suicide attacks.

“Your will proved stronger than the terror of those who tried to break it,” he said.

Upon his arrival in Fort Bragg Wednesday, Obama met with five enlisted service members who had recently returned from combat. He also met with the family of a soldier killed overseas.

Obama has on several occasions addressed his reasons for ending the war, casting it as a promise kept after he ran for president as an anti-war candidate and speaking of the need to refocus U.S. attention on rebuilding the troubled economy at home.

Obama’s approval rating on handling the situation in Iraq has been above 50 percent since last fall, and in a new Associated Press-GfK poll, has ticked up four points since October to 55 percent. Among independents, his approval rating tops 50 percent for the first time since this spring.

With the economy foremost on people’s minds, fewer now consider the war a top issue. Fifty-one percent said it was extremely or very important to them personally, down from 58 percent in October, placing it behind 13 of 14 issues tested in the poll.

It’s the president’s first visit to Fort Bragg, which is home to Army Special Operations, the 18th Airborne Corps and the 82nd Airborne, among others. Special Forces troops from Fort Bragg were among the first soldiers in Iraq during the 2003 invasion and its paratroopers helped lead the 2007 troop increase.

North Carolina, which Obama narrowly won in 2008, also is an important state for the 2012 presidential election and will host the Democratic convention.

To underscore the political significance, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, one of the leading GOP presidential contenders, addressed an open letter to Obama and sent it to the Fayetteville (N.C.) Observer decrying the unemployment rate for veterans.

Unemployment for veterans who served after Sept. 11, 2001, was 11.1 percent in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Romney called such a statistic a “disgrace.”

“In the face of such economic hardship, fine words welcoming veterans home are insufficient,” he wrote. “It is time for a fundamental change of direction. If you won’t or can’t lead our country out of the economic morass you’ve deepened, then I would suggest that it’s time for you to go.”

In his speech, Obama said that Iraq “is not a perfect place.”

But he added that “we are leaving behind a sovereign, stable, and self-reliant Iraq, with a representative government that was elected by its people. We are building a new partnership between our nations.”

Brig Gen Norman Ham, commander of the 440th Airlift Wing, said in an interview that the end of the Iraq war “means a lot of things.”

“For me personally, I served my country and I’m proud of what we’ve done, what we’ve accomplished,” Ham said. “We set out on a mission and we accomplished that mission.”

Ham reflected on the mixed outcome in Iraq.

“The world isn’t a perfect place. We try to help where we can and do the best we can,” Ham said. “We have limited resources to go everywhere and do everything for everyone, but we do the very best we can and that’s what we’ve done in Iraq — the very best we can.”

___

Associated Press writer Martha Waggoner in Raleigh, N.C., and AP Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

Dec
14

AP-GfK Poll: Romney’s outsider argument falls flat with Republicans, while Gingrich rises

By CHARLES BABINGTON and NANCY BENAC, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Mitt Romney says his business background makes him a better presidential candidate than Newt Gingrich, who has spent decades in Washington. But the argument is not moving Republicans his way, underscoring Romney’s challenge in finding a way to stem Gingrich’s rise three weeks before the Iowa caucus, a new Associated Press-GfK poll finds.

Republicans are evenly divided on whether a Washington insider or outsider is best-suited to be president. That’s a problem for Romney, who cites his private-sector experience as the biggest difference between the two front-runners for the GOP nomination.

The poll also found a significant drop in satisfaction with the overall field of Republicans vying to challenge President Barack Obama next year. In October, 66 percent of Republican adults were satisfied with the field, and 29 percent unsatisfied. Now, 56 percent are satisfied and 40 percent unsatisfied.

Except for four years as Massachusetts governor, Romney, 64, has spent his career in business and management. He ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 1994 and for president in 2008.

Gingrich, 68, spent 20 years in the U.S. House, including four as speaker. Since 1998, he has had a lucrative, Washington-based career as a consultant, speaker and author.

Both men have earned millions of dollars over the years.

The AP-GfK nationwide poll of Republicans found Gingrich with an edge over Romney as the candidate they’d like to see win the nomination. However, it falls just within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Voter preferences in early voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina do not necessarily match those in national polls. The Iowa caucus is Jan. 3. The New Hampshire primary is one week later.

For months, Romney has hovered at or near the top of Republican polls, while various rivals have risen and fallen. Gingrich’s rise is at least as dramatic as the recent plummets of businessman Herman Cain and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

An October AP-GfK poll of Republicans found Gingrich well behind the leading candidates, with 7 percent. Romney had 30 percent. The new poll finds Gingrich preferred by 33 percent of Republicans and Romney by 27 percent. All other candidates are in single digits.

Jonathan Luers, a software engineer from Chicago, is among those Republicans less than thrilled about the field.

”I guess I’m a little disappointed that it’s been so fluid,” said Luers, 52. “I was kind of hoping there would’ve been a more clear choice, without the quick knockdowns and everything.” He said he’s leaning toward Gingrich.

Romney has built his campaign largely on the argument that his business background makes him better suited for the presidency than anyone else, especially in terms of creating jobs. In a debate Saturday in Iowa, Romney struggled at first to name areas in which he and Gingrich disagree.

After citing Gingrich’s support for a mining colony on the moon and changes to child labor laws, Romney said: “The real difference, I believe, is our backgrounds. I spent my life in the private sector. I understand how the economy works.”

Among Republicans who say they prefer a non-Washington candidate, Romney has a modest edge over Gingrich. Gingrich has a larger advantage among those who say they prefer Washington experience in a nominee.

Among all people surveyed in the AP-GfK poll, including Democrats and independents, Romney fares better than Gingrich in head-to-head matchups with Obama. Obama and Romney are statistically even. But Obama leads Gingrich 51 percent to 42 percent.

That may give Romney some ammunition with Republicans whose top priority is ousting Obama. Otherwise, Republicans appear to see Romney and Gingrich as similar in many important ways. The two men polled about evenly on the questions of who would be a strong leader, has the right experience, understands ordinary people’s problems and can bring needed change.

Romney holds a clear edge on who is most likable. Gingrich leads on the question of who “has firm policy positions.” Romney is often asked about his changed positions on abortion, gay rights, gun control and immigration. Gingrich, however, also has shifted views on some key issues over the years.

The poll found sharp drops in popularity for Perry and Cain over the past two months. Cain has suspended his campaign.

Dmitry Kan, a Republican who owns an advertising firm in Acton, Mass., is not enthusiastic about the field.

”There is not much choice,” he said. “It looks like it’s going to be either Romney or Gingrich.”

Kan, who is 24 and emigrated from the former Soviet Union in 1992, said he is leaning toward Gingrich but might change his mind. He said he respects Romney’s business background, but “seeing how it works these days, I think Gingrich’s ability of political prowess might work better.”

Kan said Gingrich “did some difficult stuff back in the 1990s, back in the Clinton administration. Hopefully he will be able to somehow break through the gridlock.”

Catherine Sebree, 41, a homemaker from The Woodlands, Texas, likes Romney.

”I appreciate the values that he stands for,” she said. “I believe that he is the person that will put family first and will help to strengthen our nation and hopefully help out with the budget deficit.”

Sebree embraces Romney’s non-Washington background. “I think that the people that are experienced in Washington have screwed up enough that it’s time to try some different methods,” she said.

The poll included interviews with 460 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. The margin of error for these results is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

___

AP Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 election and candidates was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Dec. 8-12. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including 460 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Nov
29

AP-Petside.com Poll: 8 in 10 pet owners visited vet in last year

By SUE MANNING, Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Eight in 10 pet owners have taken their animals to the vet in the past year, with an overall average expenditure of $505, according to a new AP-Petside.com poll.

Sixty percent of those who took their pets to the vet spent $300 or less, but the average expenditure was boosted higher by the one in eight pet owners (13 percent) who spent $1,000 or more.

About one in six pet owners say their pet faced a serious illness during the year, and those pet owners spent an average of $1,092 on vet care. One percent say they took their pets to the vet and spent no money.

Thomas Klamm, 76, of Boone, Iowa, says he and his wife Beverly spent $3,000 on their two Chihuahuas, sisters Kati and Keli, and he would have spent more if necessary, even though his annual income is under $50,000.

The biggest bills resulted from a spinal condition Kati had, but Klamm says he has a lot of confidence in the vets and senior students at Iowa State University’s Veterinary Teaching Hospital in nearby Ames, where the little dogs have been going since they were pups.

According to the poll, most pet owners have faith in the treatment vets recommend. Overall, 52 percent say vets do not often recommend excessive treatment, 26 percent say that happens moderately often, 17 percent extremely or very often.

Those whose pets had been seriously ill in the past year were no more likely than others to say that vets suggest treatments that go beyond what is reasonable and necessary.

Among those who did not take their pets to the vet last year, 52 percent say they only take their pets to the vet “when they’re really sick” and a third say they can’t afford it at all.

Luis Calderon, 56, of El Monte, Calif., couldn’t afford to take Buddy, his 3-year-old German shepherd, to the vet last year. Buddy was given to Calderon when the dog was 6 months old. “We have become best friends,” he says.

Calderon, a self-employed handyman, has a wife and two kids and says work is scarce. If Buddy needed a vet, Calderon says he would have to go through public services or use credit. “We would have to get him help.”

How much would be too much? It would depend on what was wrong and what the vet said, Calderon says. “At that point I would have to consider whether to keep him or let him go, put him to sleep,” he says.

He hates the idea of putting limits on Buddy’s health. “But we have to survive. At this point, my mortgage is No. 1. This month is really close to the edge,” Calderon adds.

Fifty-eight percent of those who did not take their pets to a vet in the past year said they “have a type of pet that doesn’t need much veterinary care.” Among them, 52 percent have dogs, 52 percent cats, 10 percent fish, and 5 percent birds.

Not surprisingly, higher-income pet owners (household incomes over $50,000) were more apt to take their pets to the vet than those with incomes below $50,000 — 90 percent versus 74 percent. Forty percent of those with household incomes below $50,000 who didn’t take their pets to the vet say they can’t really afford to do so.

Art Jones, 62, of Alameda, Calif., says two of his family’s cats died in the last year. He estimates he spent $600 on vet bills — half of that to euthanize one of the cats. The other cat died at home.

”But we are not so wealthy we can spend thousands on a house pet. That’s unfortunate, but that’s the truth,” Jones says.

He says he has family friends whose dog is getting cancer treatment and the cost is nearing $10,000. “To me, that’s insane,” Jones says.

Over the past few years, Jim Salsman, 51, of Las Vegas, paid for several $500 trips to the vet for his neighbors’ cat, Mau, after the declawed feline got in fights with other animals. Last year, the neighbors left and gave the cat to Salsman. He ended up paying another $400 in vet bills, but says he didn’t mind because his neighbors were in foreclosure and struggling, and the cat became an important member of the family.

”He means everything to us,” Salsman said.

According to the poll, dog owners were a bit more likely to take their pets to the vet than cat owners — 85 percent of dog owners compared with 79 percent of cat owners. But dog owners spent a bit less — an average of $537 — than cat owners, who spent an average of $558.

___

AP Global Director of Polling Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online: http://www.petside.com/vetcost2011

How the poll of pet owners on veterinary care was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on veterinary care was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.6 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all pet owners in the U.S. were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Nov
23

AP-GfK poll surprise: Italians want more migrants

FRANCES D’EMILIO,Associated Press
ROME (AP) — Two-thirds of Italians consider legal immigration “good” for their country and many would welcome more migrants, an AP-GfK poll has found — surprising results given persistent sentiment in Italy linking foreigners to crime and other social ills.

Many Italians — most prominently allies of former Premier Silvio Berlusconi — have blamed the relatively new phenomenon of immigration for problems ranging from unemployment to drug trafficking, and from burglaries to violent crime.

But in the poll conducted last week, 67 percent of 1,025 Italian adults surveyed across the country said legal immigration is a good thing. And 59 percent said they want to see even more immigrants admitted legally toItaly.

The findings highlight Italians’ split view of immigration: While many have a knee-jerk hostile reaction to immigrants because of security fears, many also realize they are needed to do the jobs Italians won’t do, to pay into Italy’s overburdened pension system and to care for the country’s aging population.

“There is a schizophrenic attitude, which acknowledges the necessity of immigrant labor but doesn’t accompany this with a true openness to the human and social implications of migration,” said Ferruccio Pastore, director of the International and European Research Forum on Immigration think tank.

On Tuesday, Italian President Giorgio Napolitano urged Parliament to grant automatic citizenship to Italian-born children of foreigners, days after stressing that the weight of Italy’s debt would be even more difficult to sustain were it not for the contribution of immigrants to Italy’s economy.

A chorus of protest rose up from right-wing politicians, with some leaders of the anti-immigrant Northern League vowing to “throw up barricades” around Parliament if the citizenship measure comes up for a vote.

Among those polled, people most in favor of increasing the number of new immigrant workers and people who consider legal immigration a very good thing came mainly from Italy’s industrious north. Those in southern Italy, which suffers from high unemployment and has borne the burden of receiving thousands of illegal boat people, were less enthusiastic.

Demographer Antonio Golini suggested that opinions on immigration tend to be colored by personal experience: Someone whose elderly parents are lovingly cared for by an Eastern European woman sees immigration as a boon; someone whose Egyptian pizza maker quit his job on a busy Saturday night is less enthusiastic.

Still, the idea that immigrant workers are an integral part of Italian life is taking root, said Golini, professor emeritus at Rome’s Sapienza University and a frequent collaborator with Italy’s national statistics bureau.

“When they see that caretakers for the elderly are mainly immigrants, that factory workers, construction workers, are immigrants, they begin to feel the benefit of immigrants, so they are favorable to them,” he said.

For centuries, Italy was a largely homogenized, predominantly Roman Catholic society. Two decades ago, foreign workers began arriving, introducing new ethnic groups and faiths to the nation. Each year, Italy’s interior ministry sets the number of new residence permits to be issued, nationality by nationality. Immigrants now account for 6 percent of the population.

Italians depend on the immigrants for low-paying or backbreaking jobs they themselves shun, like bricklaying, crop-picking and flipping pizza dough in front of hot ovens.

But opposition primarily from Berlusconi’s allies in the Northern League has led to more restrictive laws, including one that went into effect this year requiring immigrants to take a proficiency test in the Italian language before receiving permanent residency permits.

While the AP-GfK poll suggests Italians are accepting of such legal migrants, it also makes clear they have little tolerance for illegal ones. Illegal immigration was described by 54 percent of those surveyed as an “extremely serious” or “very serious” problem, with 25 percent describing it as “somewhat serious.”

Far more respondents said they are deeply worried about unemployment, corruption, the national debt and organized crime.

Husband-and-wife shopkeepers Giovanni Esposito and Gilda Di Carli reflected the ambivalence of Italians toward immigrants.

Esposito, 77, works in a butcher stall in the bustling Piazza Vittorio covered market, in a blue-collar neighborhood that is home to many migrants. He followed the profession of his father, grandfather and great-grandfather, but said Italian youths are too soft for the work, which requires rising at 4 a.m. and not hanging up one’s apron until afternoon.

He said that’s why Italy need immigrants.

“We need them because our own young people don’t want to do this work,” Esposito said.

But he was adamant about illegal migrants: “They should be sent back. If there is no work for us, there is no work for them.”

Di Carli, 72, arranged produce in her store a few blocks away.

“There are good ones and bad ones, like Italians,” she said. Asked whether the numbers of immigrants should be increased, she was emphatic. “Increased? No. Then there will be more of them than there are of us.”

The AP-GfK poll of 1,025 Italian adults across the country was conducted Nov. 16-20 using landlines and cell phones by GfK Eurisko Italy under direction of the global GfK Group. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

___

AP Poll is at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Maria Grazia Murru and Paolo Santalucia contributed to this story.

How the AP-GfK Poll on Italy was conducted
The Associated Press

It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,025 adults. Interviews were conducted with 720 respondents on landline telephones and 305 on cellular phones.

The landline sample was randomly created from listed sample of known telephone numbers. For cell phones, digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed cellphone numbers. Interviews were conducted in Italian and the sample included all regions of Italy.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflected the population’s makeup by factors such as region, town size, type of phone, education, profession, age among men and age among women.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Topline available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Nov
22

AP-GfK Poll: Cutting debt a top prioirty for Italians, few want to raise retirement age or ease labor law

By NICOLE WINFIELD, Associated Press

ROME (AP) — An AP-GfK poll shows that 93 percent of Italians consider cutting the country’s huge public debt a top priority but few are willing to make personal sacrifices to do so.

The poll released Tuesday shows only about a quarter of Italians favor reforming labor laws to make it easier to fire workers or approve of raising the retirement age to 67. Those reforms are considered critical to curbing Italy’s public spending and boosting its economic growth.

The poll shows that most Italians retain a favorable view of the European Union and 76 percent think Italy should stay in the 17-nation eurozone.

Last week’s poll came during the first days of economist Mario Monti’s new government, brought in to tame Italy’s 1.9 trillion-euro ($2.6 trillion) debt. Market turmoil and loss of confidence in Italy’s ability to repay its debts forced Premier Silvio Berlusconi to resign Nov. 12, ending his 17-year domination of Italian politics.

Italy’s economy is hampered by high payroll costs, low productivity, fat government payrolls, excessive taxes, choking bureaucracy, and an educational system that produces one of the lowest levels of college graduates among rich countries.

Yet as the third-largest economy in the eurozone, Italy is considered too big for Europe to bail out like it did Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

Monti got high marks from Italians surveyed after he was tapped to lead the country, garnering a 67 percent favorability rating. Only 10 percent had a negative view and 16 percent were neutral.

Monti has pledged to reform the pension system, re-impose a tax on homes annulled by Berlusconi’s government, fight tax evasion, streamline civil court proceedings, get more women and youths into the work force and cut political costs.

But critically, only 32 percent of Italians are strongly confident that his government of bankers, academics and corporate executives can fix the country’s economic ills. Forty-two percent say they’re “moderately confident” and 22 percent say they have little or no confidence he can turn Italy’s finances around.

”Let’s say there’s hope,” said Fortunato Porcheddu, 63, as he strolled in a working class neighborhood of Rome.

While there is some hopefulness about the future of the economy — 55 percent anticipate a better situation five years from now — the longer-term picture is gloomier: Only 35 percent of Italians think children born today will be better off 20 years from now, while 43 percent anticipate a harder life for the next generation.

The survey found that overall, corruption ranked high as a problem facing Italy: 87 percent of those surveyed said it was an “extremely” or “very serious” problem. Unemployment, the debt and organized crime followed.

The AP-GfK poll of 1,025 Italian adults across the country was conducted Nov. 16-20 using landlines and cellphones by GfK Eurisko Italy under direction of GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

___

AP Poll is at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Jennifer Agiesta in Washington, Paolo Santalucia in Rome and Colleen Barry in Milan contributed.

How the poll on attitudes of Italians was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the attitudes and opinions of Italians was conducted Nov. 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications — a division of GfK Custom Research North America — in partnership with GfK Eurisko Italy. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,025 adults. Interviews were conducted with 720 respondents on landline telephones and 305 on cellular phones.

The landline sample was randomly created from listed sample of known telephone numbers For cell phones, digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in Italian and the sample included all regions of Italy.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age within sex, region, town size, type of phone, education and profession.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Italy were polled. There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Nov
15

AP-Petside.com Poll: Pet owners say shelter adoptions socially responsible, but most got pets as gifts or strays

By SUE MANNING, Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Where do people get their pets? A new AP-Petside.com poll found that the most common way people acquire a pet is as a gift, followed by taking in a stray.

About four in 10 pet owners say at least one of their current pets was given to them by friends or family, while a third say they have a pet that showed up on their doorstep as a stray.

Shelters and breeders are next on the list as sources for pets. Thirty percent of those polled say they adopted through a shelter, 31 percent got a pet from a breeder and 14 percent bought an animal at a pet store.

Karen Hulsey, 63, adopted a cat from a Texas shelter. Greyson is about a year old now and “he’s cuddly and clean,” she says.

She calls her shelter experience very upbeat because the cat “has turned into a wonderful pet with a good attitude and I felt like I was doing something positive.”

Another quarter obtained a pet in some other way, including 3 percent who say they went to an animal rescue group and 2 percent who purchased them using an online or print classified ad.

More than half of the pet owners polled say they’ve taken in a shelter animal at some point, and two-thirds of them say their experiences have been extremely positive.

Jackie Schulze, 77, of Williamsport, Pa., got Sassafras, a white cat with periwinkle eyes, from Lycoming Animal Protection Society Inc., a no-kill cat rescue that operates a local shelter. The cat, which was rescued from a meth lab in Scranton, is very attached to Schulze, following her around and sitting in her lap.

”Sassy chose me,” Schulze said.

Among those who had the most positive shelter experiences, 44 percent cite positive interactions with shelter staff. Just 3 percent say they’d had a moderately or very negative shelter experience.

Edward Acosta, 46, of Thomasville, N.C., said if he were getting a new pet today, he would probably go to a pet store or breeder, not because he doesn’t like shelters but “because I like thoroughbreds.” He and his wife Vicki bred Pomeranians for years and still have three descended from their original pair. They also own five chickens — Rhode Island Reds bought at a feed store — whom they consider to be pets.

Cat owners are more likely than dog owners to have adopted a stray or shelter animal. Forty-three percent of cat owners polled say one of their pets came from a shelter, compared with 29 percent of dog owners. More than half of cat owners (52 percent) say one of their current pets was a stray, compared with 30 percent of dog owners.

Fifty-eight percent of shelter adopters say being socially responsible was extremely or very important in their decision to use a shelter. It is usually cheaper to adopt than to buy from a breeder or pet store, but 60 percent of those who adopted shelter pets say the cost made no difference.

Thirty-six percent of shelter users say they had more confidence in the staff at pet shelters than they did in the staff at pet stores or breeders. Thirty-six percent of those who obtained animals from shelters also say they believe shelter animals were more likely to have had recent veterinary care than animals from pet stores or breeders.

And more than two-thirds of those who have adopted from a shelter — 68 percent — say they would do so again.

Not all pet owners see shelter adoptions as a positive. Thirty-six percent of those polled say that if they were to adopt an animal from a shelter, they would be extremely or very concerned that the pet might have hidden medical problems; 29 percent express concern about psychological problems and 33 percent say they would worry the animal wouldn’t fit in with their families.

Ojala Reino, 31, of Fairmount, Ga., who got his boxer bulldog, Bruster, from a friend, said he was one of those who would worry about the physical and mental health of a shelter dog.

”I watch of lot of those shows on TV where the animals come in and have been abused,” he said.

Fifty-two percent of pet owners say they have gotten a pet from a shelter or rescue at some time, but only 23 percent have taken an animal to a shelter. Of those who turned in animals, 59 percent say the animal belonged to someone else.

If shelters started charging a $25 fee to accept unwanted or stray animals, about a third of those polled (34 percent) say they would be dissuaded from leaving animals and 52 percent say it would make no difference.

By region, adopting a stray is most common in the West, where 39 percent got a pet that way compared with 34 percent in the South, 30 percent in the Northeast and 29 percent in the Midwest. Forty-one percent of rural-dwelling pet owners say their pet was a stray, compared with 28 percent of suburbanites and 34 percent of urbanites. And suburbanites were most likely to have adopted from a shelter: 36 percent compared with 30 percent in urban areas and 22 percent in rural parts of the country.

The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

___

AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.petside.com/rescueanimals

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on shelter adoption was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/ and http://surveys.ap.org.

Nov
08

AP-Petside.com Poll: Many pets can expect holiday gifts from owners; toys and treats lead list of favorites

By SUE MANNING, Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Just over half of American pet owners will buy gifts for their pets this holiday season, and they’ll spend an average of $46 on their animals, with toys and treats topping the list, according to a new AP-Petside.com poll.

Sixty-eight percent of pets getting gifts can look forward to a toy, 45 percent to food or another treat, 8 percent new bedding, 6 percent clothing, 3 percent a leash, collar or harness and 3 percent new grooming products, the poll showed. (Some pets will get more than one gift.)

“Christmas is about the pets,” said Gayla McCarthy, 58, of Kekaha, Hawaii, whose Australian shepherd, Echo, will find a toy under the tree. McCarthy even got a shirt for her husband as a gift to him from the dog, and she’ll be giving collapsible bowls that she ordered online to all their friends’ dogs.

Although the average budget for pet gifts among those surveyed was $46, 72 percent of those polled said they’d spend $30 or less. Those who bought gifts for their pets last year said they spent $41 on average.

Overall, 51 percent of those polled this year said they would buy holiday gifts for their pets, a figure that’s been relatively stable in the last few AP-Petside.com polls. It was 53 percent last year, 52 percent in 2009 and 43 percent in 2008.

Income does matter. Those making $50,000 or more say they plan to spend an average $57 on their pets. Those making under $50,000 say it will be $29.

Major pet retailers have been taking part in the Black Friday and Cyber Monday frenzy for a few years. Petco Animal Supplies Inc. plans a 72-hour “Black Friday Weekend Blowout,” said Greg Seremetis, vice president of marketing.

Products for both pets and pet owners will be available, he said. “Including pets in holiday gift-giving has been a growing trend in the last few years. More and more pets are being treated as family members and being included in holiday traditions, including having a gift waiting for them under the tree,” he said.

PetSmart Inc. plans to open stores at 7 a.m. on Black Friday, then continue with a “Countdown to Christmas” sale, said spokeswoman Stephanie Foster.

Online retailer Foster & Smith Inc. plans a live, streaming, four-hour (11 a.m. – 3 p.m. EST) webcast full of sales and giveaways on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, spokesman Gordon Magee said. “As far as we know, with the exception of QVC …, no other retailer has done a live broadcast like this on Black Friday and Cyber Monday,” Magee said. “We are going to give it a go.”

Younger pet owners are more apt to say they’ll buy their pet a holiday gift, including 56 percent of pet owners under age 50. Among those ages 50-64, it’s 47 percent, and among seniors, 39 percent, the poll showed.

Lauren Beard, 22, of Felton, Pa., and her family lavished their dog Groovy with gifts last year — including treats and bones — because it was the chocolate lab’s first Christmas. “We still love her but it’s a little less exciting this year,” Beard said. So she reduced her budget of $70 last year to $50, and hopes to get some things on sale. She’ll also buy a gift for Groovy’s best friend and neighbor, a golden retriever named Tessie, Beard said.

Ronda Singleton and her husband live in Elk, Wash., and raise and show standard poodles. But they don’t plan to get gifts for their dogs or for each other. “If we need something, we go get it,” she explained, adding that the dogs get treats all the time. She and her husband like to celebrate holidays with traditional dinners and church services.

Thomas Koch, 69, in Raleigh, N.C., has something special to celebrate this year — adoption of his adult son should be finalized, he said.

The two will spend the holidays with their dog, Jessie, a Sheltie-chow mix, and two cats, Tanz and Callie.

Last year, Jessie got toys and the cats got play mice and a large bag of catnip. “They liked it so much we just threw it on the carpet and let them roll in it,” Koch said.

He covered the goodies last year for a mere $8, but is setting aside $10 this year just in case prices have gone up.

George Smith, 43, a father of three in Adams County, Colo., says pets are “part of the family, just like our kids.” But they keep the holiday gifts for Miley, a golden retriever, and Zippity, a cat, low-key: no fancy wrapping or stockings, just $10 worth of toys and treats.

Steve Gottula’s budget was $100 last year and he figures it will run about the same this year for his two dogs and seven cats. Odie, a dachshund, and Sky, a Dalmatian, will get special bones, and the cats will get catnip and mouse balls.

Gottula, 48, his wife Leigh (she’s the one who brings home the strays) and five kids (ages 6 to 16) live with the nine pets in Spring, Texas.

His daughters have made stockings for the pets — with their initials — and they are always part of holiday celebrations, Gottula said.

“The cats like to play with the paper and ribbon and get lost in the boxes and wrappings,” he said.

What do his pets mean to him? “They are entertaining, they are companions. They have little senses of humor. They all have personalities. If you give love to them they give it back — it’s unconditional,” he said.

The AP-Petside.com Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,118 pet owners. Results among all pet owners have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

___

Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://petside.com/gifts2011

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-Petside.com Poll of pet owners on holiday gifts for their pets was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,118 pet owners.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/ and http://surveys.ap.org.

Oct
21

AP-GfK Poll: 37 percent support ‘Occupy Wall Street’ protesters; politics angers most people

By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — More than one-third of the country supports the Wall Street protests, and even more — 58 percent — say they are furious about America’s politics.

The number of angry people is growing as deep reservoirs of resentment grip the country, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll.

Some 37 percent of people back the protests that have spread from New York to cities across the country and abroad, one of the first snapshots of how the public views the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. A majority of those protest supporters are Democrats, but the anger about politics in general is much more widespread, the poll indicates.

“They’ve got reasons to be upset, they’ve got reasons to protest, but they’re protesting against the wrong people,” Jan Jarrell, 54, a retired school custodian from Leesville, S.C., says of the New York demonstrators. “They need to go to Washington, to Congress and the White House. They’re the ones coming up with all the rules.”

“Occupy Wall Street” has been called the liberal counterpoint to conservative-libertarian tea party, which injected a huge dose of enthusiasm into the Republican Party and helped it win the House and make gains in the Senate last fall.

While the troubled economy is at the root of anger at both government and business leaders, there’s a key difference. Tea party activists generally argue that government is the problem, and they advocate for free markets. The Wall Street protesters generally say that government can provide some solutions and the free market has run amok.

Of the Americans who support the Wall Street protests, 64 percent in the poll are Democrats, while 22 percent are independents and just 14 percent are Republicans. The protest backers are more likely to approve of President Barack Obama and more likely to disapprove of Congress than are people who don’t support the demonstrations.

More generally, many more Americans — 58 percent — say they are furious about the country’s politics than did in January, when 49 percent said they felt that way. What’s more, nearly nine in 10 say they are frustrated with politics and nearly the same say they are disappointed, findings that suggest people are deeply resentful of the political bickering over such basic government responsibilities as passing a federal budget and raising the nation’s debt limit.

This wrath spreads across political lines, with about six in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents saying politics makes them angry.

Fewer are hopeful about politics than when the year began, 47 percent down from 60 percent. Only 17 percent of respondents say they feel proud or inspired.

Since January, Congress and the White House have engaged in repeated standoffs over federal spending and the size of government as the economy has struggled to recover from recession.

In the past month, fury over all that has spilled into New York’s financial district, and groups of mostly young people have camped out in a park.

The protesters cite the economic crisis as a key reason for their unhappiness. The unemployment rate hovers around 9 percent nationally. Many homeowners owe more than their homes are worth. Foreclosures are rampant. And many young people — the key demographic of the protesters — can’t find jobs or live on their own.

“They all have college educations, and some have advanced degrees, and they’re unemployed?” says Alice Dunlap, 63, a retired speech language pathologist from Alexandria, Va. She supports the protests because, she says, anger lingers at those who profited while the nation’s economy tanked.

“We all got ripped off by Wall Street, and we continue to be ripped off by Wall Street,” she says. “You can look at my portfolio, if you like.”

The poll found that most protest supporters do not blame Obama for the economic crisis. Sixty-eight percent say former President George W. Bush deserves “almost all” or “a lot but not all” of the blame. Just 15 percent say Obama deserves that much blame. Nearly six in 10 protest supporters blame Republicans in Congress for the nation’s economic problems, and 21 percent blame congressional Democrats.

Six in 10 protest supporters trust Democrats more than Republicans to create jobs.

Most people who support the protests — like most people who don’t — actually report good financial situations in their own households.

Still, protest supporters express more intense concern than non-supporters about unemployment at the moment and rising consumer prices in the coming year.

Norton Shores, Mich., retiree Patsy Ellerbroek, 65, is among those who have little empathy for the Wall Street protesters.

“Everybody ought to own their own business before they start complaining,” Ellerbroek says.

Eight years ago, she and her husband sold “The Fun Spot,” a roller rink they owned for three decades. Now she’s a member of neither political party, and she gets frustrated when she sees politicians like the Republican candidates for president being disrespectful. Or Obama “flying around the county on our taxpayer dollars, politicking.”

“With all the politicians, it’s like, the heck with the people who put them there. We need another Mr. Smith goes to Washington,” she said.

The poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll included 384 respondents who said they were supporters of the Wall Street protests. Among that group, the error margin was 6.5 points.

___

Online:

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the Wall Street protests and political emotions was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including 384 respondents who said they were supporters of the Wall Street protests. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for those supporting the Wall Street protests was plus or minus 6.5 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline results available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Oct
20

AP-GfK Poll: Gloom persists, though not as dark as summer; Obama not inspiring confidence

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — The extreme funk that settled over the country during the summer has eased slightly, but Americans remain gloomy about the economy and more than half say President Barack Obama does not inspire confidence about a recovery.

A sizable majority — more than 7 in 10 — believe the country is headed in the wrong direction and, in a new high, 43 percent describe the nation’s economy as “very poor,” according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Among those surveyed, less than 40 percent say Obama’s proposed remedies for high unemployment would increase jobs significantly.

The pessimism is not a good sign for the nation’s recovery hopes and presents a more urgent challenge for Obama as he mounts his re-election bid.

About 4 in 10 think unemployment will rise in the coming year; just 23 percent expect it to decrease. And few expect the government to be able to help. Only 41 percent say the government can do much to create jobs, and less than 40 percent say the main elements of Obama’s jobs proposal would increase employment significantly.

What’s more, expectations for the coming year have not improved, with 41 percent believing the economy will remain the same, 27 percent saying it will get worse and 30 percent saying it will improve.

In a glimmer of a bright spot, less than a quarter of those surveyed say they think the economy worsened in the past month, compared with nearly half who felt that way in August. And Obama could find some solace in the poll’s finding that 44 percent place heavy blame for the economy’s state on President George W. Bush, while 27 percent put the blame on him.

Still, the public’s mood is decidedly downbeat, creating yet another obstacle to economic growth, which relies in part on public optimism to spur demand.

Illustrating Obama’s precarious perch, 9 percent of survey respondents who said he deserves to be re-elected said they could vote for one of the three leading Republicans seeking the presidential nomination.

“If Romney and Obama were going head to head at this point in time I would probably move to Romney,” said Dale Bartholomew, 58, a manufacturing equipment salesman from Marengo, Ill. Bartholomew said he agrees with Obama’s proposed economic remedies and said partisan divisions have blocked the president’s initiatives.

But, he added: “His inability to rally the political forces, if you will, to accomplish his goal is what disappoints me.”

Despite the high number of people who believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, Obama himself gets some benefit of the doubt. His approval ratings are holding steady, with 46 percent approving of his job as president and 52 percent disapproving. Obama’s standing with the public is weakest on the economy and in his efforts to tackle unemployment, with about 6 in 10 disapproving of his handling of both.

Obama’s standing still vastly exceeds that of Congress. In a slight improvement, Congress’ approval ratings rose from its August low of 12 percent to 16 percent. Still, 82 percent disapprove of Congress, including 56 percent who say they “strongly disapprove.”

Little illustrates the decline in the public’s faith in Obama more than the sharp dip in confidence he has experienced since the highs he enjoyed immediately after his election. Specifically, only 43 percent of the respondents say they are confident that Obama “will be successful in bringing about the changes needed to improve the economy,” compared with 72 percent who said they were confident of his abilities in November 2008.

“I believe he is doing all he knows how, but it’s just not working,” said Ann Anderson, 49, a college administrator from Homer Glen, Ill.

Democrats tend to stick by the president, expressing much more confidence in his ability to turn the economy around. More than 7 in 10 say they are at least somewhat confident of his abilities to improve the economy. Among independents, 37 percent are that confident and only 11 percent of Republicans share that view.

Still, the disappointment in Obama extends to some Democrats who believe he should stand his ground.

“When Obama got elected I was real hopeful for a lot of changes,” said Dave Buerger, 60, a part-time registered nurse from New Salisbury, Ind. “Overall I would say that I’m real disappointed in his concessions to the banks and Wall Street and the Republicans. I think he needs to be more liberal and stand his ground more. I think he’s given in too much.”

Even as the public expresses disappointment in Obama and disapproval of Congress, only 41 percent of respondents say the government can do quite a bit or a great deal to create jobs. Three out of 10 believe government’s impact on jobs is moderate and 29 percent say it can help create little or no jobs at all.

Similarly, a majority of the public does not hold much hope for the job creation prospects of either Obama’s $447 billion jobs proposal or for measures proposed by congressional Republicans.

Obama’s plan to create jobs by increasing spending on public works projects such as schools, roads and bridges finds only 37 percent of respondents believing it will create a significant number of jobs. Tax credits to companies that hire those who have unemployed for six months or more elicits a similar response.

Only 27 percent of the respondents said the Republican plan to reduce the number of regulations on businesses would create a significant number of jobs; 45 percent say it would create few or no jobs.

The poll, however, found substantial support — 62 percent — for a proposal by Senate Democrats to pay for Obama’s jobs proposal with a surtax on incomes over $1 million. One quarter of the respondents opposed the idea and 10 percent said they were neutral. Though the surtax has little or no chance of passing, the poll results underscore the view of Democrats that the proposal has political appeal.

Anderson, the college administrator from Illinois, voiced cautious support for the tax on millionaires.

“That’s a tough call. Yes, I do, but that’s only because I’m not one of them,” she said. “Should they pay their fair share? Absolutely. Should they pay a certain percentage? I don’t know how to answer that.”

But Teresa Rowe, 53, a dance team consultant from Richland, Wash., said she preferred an overhaul of the entire tax system.

“They’ll go after the millionaires first and then those slightly below millionaires. It’s a slippery slope,” she said. “They need to look at the entire tax system and revise the whole system.”

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide, and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Associated Press writers Nancy Benac and Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

How the poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

Oct
19

AP-GfK Poll: Many are open to ousting Obama, but no Republican has pulled away from the field

By CHARLES BABINGTON and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans have yet to find a Republican they’d clearly prefer over President Barack Obama, although half say the president does not deserve re-election.

Among Republicans, the desire to oust Obama is clear, according to a new AP-GfK poll. But it has not resolved divisions over the choice of a nominee. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is reasonably popular, but he has not pulled away from the field.

Former pizza company executive Herman Cain runs close to Romney as the candidate Republicans would most like to see on the ballot, but many Republicans are reluctant to back a man who has never held office. Texas Gov. Rick Perry lags in the poll, which was conducted before Tuesday night’s combative debate in Las Vegas.

In that two-hour forum, several candidates sharply criticized Cain’s tax proposals, and a newly energized Perry hit Romney hard on immigration.

In the poll, Romney was the choice of 30 percent of Republicans, with Cain about even at 26 percent. Perry was preferred by 13 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas topped the list of those in single digits.

Among all adults surveyed, half said Obama should not be re-elected, and 46 percent said he should be. That continues his gradual slide since May.

When all adults are asked about hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Obama and Romney run almost even, 48 percent for Obama to 45 percent. Obama holds a narrow edge over Cain, 49 percent to 43 percent. He leads Perry, 51 percent to 42 percent.

Luis Calderon of El Monte, Calif., exemplifies those unhappy with Obama but not ready to dump him.

“Even though I criticize him, I still want him to win,” said Calderon, 56, a self-employed handyman who was laid off by an oil company three years ago. Obama “has to get down to business, forget about promises, just do it, create jobs,” Calderon said. “But in order to create jobs, he has to be harder on the Republicans.”

A Democrat, Calderon said Romney “is the one that may do a little dent on Obama.”

Romney spent four years as Massachusetts governor, and he ran for president in 2008. Cain is the only candidate who has never held elected office, which might present some problems. Americans have no recent history of electing inexperienced politicians as president except war hero Dwight Eisenhower.

Of the Republicans polled, about four in 10 say they’re less inclined to vote for someone who has never been elected to public office. That’s far more than say they are disinclined to vote for a Mormon, a woman or a black candidate.

Romney and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman are Mormons. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is the only woman in the race. Cain is black.

Nineteen percent of Republicans, and 21 percent of all adults, say they are less likely to vote for someone who is a Mormon. Anne Fish, a Republican and retired teacher from Columbus, Ohio, is among them. Fish, 73, said she would not support Romney “because he is not a Christian.”

Mainstream Mormons, including Romney, consider themselves Christians.

Fish said she probably will support Perry. “Although I have some doubts, I think he has some ideas about how to improve the economy, how to help our country develop more jobs,” she said.

Ronald Wilson, a conservative Republican from Bucyrus, Ohio, said he’s undecided, although “I favor Herman Cain. He’s not infected by Washingtonitis.”

Wilson, 65, a retired stone quarry worker, called Romney “better than nothing.”

Such comments underscore Romney’s challenge. Many GOP insiders see him as the most plausible nominee and Obama’s strongest potential challenger. But Romney generates little passion among Republican voters, who seem to keep shopping for an alternative as time ticks down to the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses.

None of the candidates has begun heavy television advertising, which Romney and Perry in particular can afford.

Perry has positioned himself to the right of Romney on several issues, but he’s having trouble breaking through with conservative voters. Nearly three in five Republicans say they see Perry as conservative, but only 26 percent say he’s “strongly conservative.” Cain gets about the same “strongly conservative” marks, while 17 percent of Republicans give Romney that label.

Among conservative Republicans, Romney is the choice of 28 percent, Cain 27 percent and Perry 15 percent. Ten percent of conservatives say they’re not sure whom they’d like to see win the party’s nod.

Tea party supporters split 33 percent for Cain to 29 percent for Romney and 13 percent for Perry.

Gene O’Dor, a retired postal worker from Mobile, Ala., said he likes Romney’s somewhat centrist leanings.

“I think he is a moderate, like I am,” said O’Dor, 66. “I feel he has the background in business to get this country back to where it needs to be.”

“I don’t think he is going to be a person that lies to the American public,” O’Dor said.

Benjamin Matzke, a video editor from Nicollet, Minn., is among those Republicans that Romney has yet to persuade.

“He really to me looks a lot like a career politician,” said Matske, 27. He said Romney “seems to pay lip service to a lot of things that I feel are important,” including abortion, but “his stance on health care is a little soft.”

There seems to be a broad gender divide in the Republican contest. Among GOP women, Romney is favored over his nearest competitor, Cain, by 17 percentage points, with the rest of the field in single digits. The picture is more muddled among Republican men: 31 percent favor Cain, 26 percent Romney, 17 percent Perry, 10 percent Paul, and the rest are each 5 percent or below.

Among all adults, regardless of party identification, 21 percent say they’d like the GOP to nominate Romney. Eighteen percent name Cain, 13 percent Perry and 11 percent Paul.

The poll found shifts in candidates’ favorability ratings. These numbers don’t necessarily track people’s likelihood to vote for or against someone, but they offer insight into how candidates are being received as they become better known.

Romney, Cain and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich have gotten positive bumps since August. Romney and Cain are the only GOP contenders viewed favorably by more than 40 percent of all adults.

Romney’s favorable rating has risen 10 points among all adults since August, and now stands at 49 percent. Increases came across party lines, but especially among conservative Republicans.

Cain’s favorability rating among Republicans has nearly doubled as he has spent more time in the spotlight, increasing from 37 percent favorable in August to 71 percent favorable now. Just 10 percent of Republicans hold a negative impression of him. Party insiders will watch for signs that Tuesday’s hard-hitting debate might wound Cain a bit.

Obama’s favorability ratings are essentially unchanged since August, with 54 percent of adults holding a favorable view of him, and 44 percent unfavorable.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted Oct. 13-17, by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide, and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 431 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; the margin of error for these results was plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.

___

Associated Press writers Nancy Benac and Stacy Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

Poll details: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 election and candidates was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Oct. 13-17. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults, including interviews with 431 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of error for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org.

Sep
16

AP-NCC Poll: Narrow majority supports legal recognition of gay marriage, as issue roils states

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press

Barbara Von Aspern loves her daughter, “thinks the world” of the person her daughter intends to marry and believes the pair should have the same legal rights as anyone else. It pains her, but Von Aspern is going to skip their wedding. Her daughter, Von Aspern explains, is marrying another woman.

“We love them to death, and we love them without being judgmental,” the 62-year-old Chandler, Ariz., retiree said. “But the actual marriage I cannot agree with.”

It’s complicated, this question of legitimizing gay marriage. Americans are grappling with it from their homes to the halls of government in the shadow of a presidential election next year. The ambivalence is reflected in a new poll that shows the nation is passionate, conflicted and narrowly split on same-sex marriage.

Fifty-three percent of the 1,000 adults surveyed believe the government should give legal recognition to marriages between couples of the same sex, about the same as last year, according to the nationwide telephone poll by The Associated Press and the National Constitution Center. Forty-four percent were opposed.

People are similarly conflicted over what, if anything, the government should do about the issue.

Support for legal recognition of same-sex marriage has shifted in recent years, from a narrow majority opposed in 2009 to narrow majority support now. Some of the shift stems from a generational divide, with the new poll showing a majority of Americans under age 65 in favor of legal recognition for same-sex marriages, and a majority of seniors opposed.

In some places, government has moved ahead while the nation debates. New York in July became the sixth state, along with the District of Columbia, to legalize same-sex marriage. Still, the issue played a part in the special election Tuesday to replace disgraced former Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y. Democrat David Weprin’s support for gay marriage cost him support among the district’s Orthodox Jews, and he lost to Republican Bob Turner.

Also Tuesday, lawmakers in North Carolina, the only state in the Southeast that does not have language in its constitution banning gay marriage, voted to put the question on the 2012 ballot. Most Americans who live in states where gay marriage is not already legal say it is unlikely their state will pass such a law; just 20 percent think it is likely to become law in their state.

Americans also are conflicted on how to go about legalizing or outlawing gay marriage.

One option is banning gay marriage by constitutional amendment. About half of the poll’s respondents, 48 percent, said they would favor such an amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. Most who feel this way do so intensely. About 40 percent would strongly favor such a change. Forty-three percent said they would oppose such an amendment, and 8 percent were neutral, according to the poll.

Most — 55 percent — believe the issue should be handled at the state level, however, and opinions on how states should act are split. People are about evenly divided on whether their states should allow same-sex marriages — 42 percent favor that and 45 percent are opposed — and tilt in favor of state laws that allow gay couples to form civil unions — 47 percent in favor, 38 percent opposed and 13 percent neutral, according to the poll.

“The different moral standards in different areas, probably, are the biggest reason that same-sex marriages are an issue,” said Dale Shoemaker, 54, a military retiree from Boise, Idaho. If gay couples who want to get married live in a state that doesn’t allow it, they can move to one that does, he said.

Either way, gay couples “should have benefits,” Shoemaker said. “If they’re living together and cohabitating and are a couple, (they should have) the insurance and retirement and that type of thing, the monetary benefits.”

Nearly 6 in 10 (57 percent) in the poll shared Shoemaker’s take when it comes to government benefits. They said same-sex couples should be entitled to the same legal benefits as married couples of the opposite sex. Forty percent felt the government should distinguish between them.

The poll did uncover some inequities. It suggests, for example, that opponents of same-sex marriage were far more apt to say that the issue is one of deep importance to them. Forty-four percent of those polled called it extremely or very important for them personally. Among those who favor legal marriage for gay couples, 32 percent viewed the issue as that important.

Von Aspern is an example of an American whose opposition to gay marriage is deep and abiding. It’s based on her religion — she is Mormon — and as such it overrode other considerations when it came to her daughter’s wedding.

“It was very difficult,” Von Aspern says. “We had to bring them to the house and hug them and love them and tell them these things and not let that keep us apart.”

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-National Constitution Center Poll on same-sex marriage was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Sep
13

AP-NCC Poll: Government, military trusted to keep Americans safe; Congress not so much

By LAURIE KELLMAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press

Congress may be in the doghouse with the American public, but the broader government — especially the military — gets high marks for keeping the nation safe and secure, a new poll suggests.

What’s more, nearly seven in 10 Americans are trying to make things better by volunteering, a sign that optimism survives in a nation riled by partisan policy fights and economic uncertainty.

“It’s very healthy because it indicates that although we are annoyed, skeptical and have less trust than we’d like in our institutions, we are not hopeless,” said David Eisner, president and CEO of the National Constitution Center, which partnered on the poll with The Associated Press. “We believe that the bedrock values and principles that we built our society on are right.”

The public’s contempt for Congress exceeds that of other American institutions, including banks, major corporations and the media. The broader government’s performance “making sure that our nation is safe from foreign and domestic threats” received an uptick in confidence from 53 percent a year ago to 72 percent now. And a growing number of people said the government is doing a good job of “making sure all Americans feel safe, secure and free,” up from 54 percent in August 2010 to 63 percent now.

The military in particular earns the most respect of the survey, with 54 percent deeply confident in the institution.

But deep contempt for Congress and aspects of President Barack Obama’s health care law remain among Americans tired of partisan standoffs over basic pocketbook issues. The Associated Press-National Constitution Center poll of 1,000 adults, conducted Aug. 18-22, found that 57 percent have little or no confidence in Congress, up from 49 percent last year.

So while Boise, Idaho, retiree Dale Shoemaker, 54, feels safer, he doesn’t give the nation’s political institutions credit.

“I think we’re more secure. There are a lot of professional, talented people doing a tremendous job,” Shoemaker, who used to consider himself a Republican but now is more of an independent. “But the leadership of the Congress and the Senate are not making decisions about what to do, and they’re leaving people hanging.”

It’s notable news on the brink of an election year for Obama, the health care law’s chief author and the one who made the call in May to take out terrorist chief Osama bin Laden. Congress, too, is taking note of its estimation in the eyes of the voting public as both parties gird for battle over control of the House and Senate.

No party profited politically from the standoff over the nation’s finances much of the year, especially by the unseemly debt limit dispute that earned the nation a credit rating downgrade and sank approval ratings for all policymakers involved. The bickering continued even as the unemployment rate refused to drop much below 10 percent.

A poll last month found the infighting sank Congress’ approval rating to 12 percent.

Congress and the broader government give Americans heartburn, with one central feature of Obama’s signature health care overhaul standing out as an example. More than eight in 10 people surveyed — 82 percent — say the federal government should not have the power to require Americans to buy health care insurance. Politically important independents were more aligned with Republicans on the mandate question, with 87 percent who don’t identify with one of the two major parties saying government should have no right to require insurance; 95 percent of Republicans agreed, according to the poll.

“I just think that people should have the right to buy health insurance, or not,” said Daisy Mallory, 78, a retired factory worker from of La Grange, Ill., who says Medicare covers her health care costs. Obama, she said, may have misjudged public’s opposition to health care mandates. “I think he understands it better now,” she said.

Obama himself acknowledged that his party took a “shellacking” in the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans made the health care law and the Democrats who muscled it through Congress their Issue No. 1 — and won enough seats to control the House. Obama has said he believes the Supreme Court will uphold the law’s constitutionality, but Republicans continue to mention it as a key example of government overreach that they would repeal.

But after nine months in control of the House, Republicans haven’t boosted the public’s view of Congress.

In the AP-NCC poll, just 8 percent say they are confident in the people running Congress, 10 percent in the federal government. Majorities of Republicans and Democrats lack confidence in congressional leaders, with politically crucial independents showing the sharpest increase in distrust of Congress over the past year. That’s up from 49 percent in 2010 to 62 percent now

Even so, most Americans feel safe and more have confidence in the government to keep it that way, the poll shows.

The uptick in approval for the government’s handling of national security crosses party lines, but Republicans have shifted sharply. Last year, just 32 percent of Republicans gave the government positive reviews on keeping the nation safe; now, 61 percent of Republicans agree on that. And on making sure Americans feel “safe, secure and free,” the same group has jumped from 33 percent who said the government is doing a “good job” to 54 percent now, the poll shows.

The urge to contribute through volunteerism remains strong, according to the poll. Nearly six in 10 Americans say the country needs more sense of community and people helping one another. Most — 69 percent — have volunteered in the past year. Eight in 10 said they have made a charitable donation of $25 or more during that time.

The AP-National Constitution Center poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellular telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-National Constitution Center Poll on trust in U.S. institutions was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Sep
13

AP-CNBC Poll: Americans, Britons less optimistic about becoming millionaires than Australians

By LAURIE KELLMAN, The Associated Press

Who believes they’ll be a millionaire?

About two in 10 Americans, who are less optimistic than Australians but more optimistic than Britons about becoming wealthy in the next ten years, according to a new AP-CNBC poll.

In all three countries, more than seven in 10 of those surveyed said they were unlikely to become millionaires in the next decade.

Reflecting the psychic toll of the global economic doldrums, solid majorities of Americans — 61 percent — and Britons — 63 percent — say it’s extremely or very difficult for their countrymen to become millionaires today.

“It’s an unrealistic thing for anybody to assume,” said Jason Hall, 35, a heavy equipment operator in Loganville, Wis.

Across the pond, 19-year-old Natasha Hill, an apprentice at a London hair salon, said many of her friends looking for work amid high unemployment have essentially given up.

“There’s no determination, nothing to aim for,” Hill said. “Everyone is in robot mode — they just settle.”

On the flip side of the planet, just 35 percent of Australians feel the same way, the results found.

“Oh, yes, yes, yes you can” become a millionaire, said Australian student Hannah Peters, 21. “Anybody can become a millionaire. There are so many opportunities here. You just have to know how to go about it.”

The Aussies have reason to be so darned sunny.

Unemployment there is 5.3 percent, nearly half the United States’ 9.1 percent. Just under 8 percent of Brits are out of work. And a natural resources boom in Western Australia is helping grow the country’s economy about 3 percent this year, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The equivalent figure for the United Kingdom is 1.7 percent and for the U.S. economy, 2.8 percent, though many private economists expect it to be lower.

Still, becoming a millionaire was tough to imagine for many Down Under.

“My pay is lousy and I spend it,” said Tasmanian Brian Draney, a 47 year-old lineman and father of two young children.

Polling last month by The Associated Press and CNBC found that Australians are the most optimistic of the bunch, with 29 percent of respondents there saying they feel good about their prospects of eventually becoming a millionaire in the next decade, compared with 21 percent in the U.S. and just 8 percent in the U.K.

In reality, the United States leads the world in millionaires, more than 5.2 million of them in 2010, or nearly one in every 20 households, according to The Boston Consulting Group’s latest annual global wealth report. Great Britain had 570,000 millionaires, or about one in every 45 households. Australia had 133,000 or about one in every 60 households, but that’s an increase of 35,000 over the previous year.

The BCG survey measured millionaires in terms of U.S. dollars. Those polled by AP and CNBC were asked how likely it was that they’d be worth a million of their own monetary unit – U.S. dollars, Australian dollars or British pounds. One million American dollars is worth about 964,000 Australian dollars, and about 633,000 British pounds.

But the difference is academic when large majorities never think they’ll have such fortunes to their names.

“I’ll never make a million, because my family is bleeding me dry,” said Brian Bolton, a married 47-year-old civil servant in Brisbane, Australia, who has two young children. “Every day my bank balance is substantially lighter and I don’t know where it goes.”

Asked to imagine being millionaires, residents of all three countries had similar priorities for spending it: The bulk of them said they would save it, invest it, buy real estate, pay down debt and share with family, the survey said.

Respondents across the board listed “saving or investing” as their first priority. The last priority? Americans and Australians listed “giving away to charity.”

“I’d give charity a taste,” said Draney, the lineman from the Australian island state of Tasmania. On second thought: “That’s just asking for trouble because then they’d annoy me for the rest of my life.”

Brits left “paying down debt” for last, the polls showed.

Wail Al-Dour, 26, has trouble even envisioning himself as a millionaire. His chosen career, filmmaking, is tough to break into.

“The environment right now is hard,” he said in London. “Everyone thinks they’re going to be just scraping by.”

Back at the London hair salon, Charlotte Hagan-Boyla, 19, confesses to “spending money the day I get it.”

But becoming a millionaire, she thinks, isn’t out of the question. You could win the lottery, she reasoned, or you could work your way up.

“Or,” she added, “you could always marry a rich man.”

___

Associated Press Writers Cassandra Vinograd in London, Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia and Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

On the Web:

http://www.cnbc.com

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-CNBC Poll on becoming a millionaire was conducted in the United States, U.K. and Australia.

The poll in the United States was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

The AP-CNBC Poll of the U.K. was conducted Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 9-11 via GfK NOP Consumer’s weekly omnibus survey. The August interviews are based on landline interviews with 1,000 adults age 16 and over in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The September interviews include 1,006 different adults age 16 and over in the same countries.

The AP-CNBC Poll in Australia was conducted Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 13-15 via an Australian national telephone omnibus survey overseen by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It is based on 1,000 landline interviews age 18 and over. The September interviews were re-interviews of 699 of the original respondents. Broad age quotas were applied to the sample and interviews were split between males and females within each geographical area.

For the U.S. poll, interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. Interviews were conducted in English for the U.K. and Australia polls.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, U.S. poll weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for the U.K. poll was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the poll in Australia.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Sep
05

Support for keeping US bases in Japan grows as China, NKorea seen as threats

By MALCOLM FOSTER

Japanese have become more welcoming to the U.S. military presence in their country over the past six years as fears spread that neighboring China and North Korea are threats to peace, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found.

The survey released Monday on Japanese views of other countries, security and the imperial family also showed that while about half of Japanese are positive about the U.S. and Germany, they are overwhelmingly negative or neutral toward immediate Asian neighbors China, Russia and North Korea. Opinions about South Korea are mixed.

Those attitudes, as well as results showing Japanese are reluctant to allow more foreign workers into the country, suggest a general wariness of outsiders. Some 46 percent are opposed to increasing the number of immigrants — more than double the share in favor of boosting their numbers — even though doing so would help offset the shrinking labor force as the population ages.

And while they gave their own elected leaders low marks, most Japanese think highly of the emperor and military.

Tokyo has cast a cautious eye toward China’s increased military spending and more assertive stance on disputed islands in the region. Ties between the two countries deteriorated to their worst point in years last autumn when a Chinese fishing trawler and Japanese patrol vessels collided near islands controlled by Japan but claimed by both in the East China Sea.

China’s state-run media have already issued warnings to new Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda for past statements suggesting that Beijing’s military buildup is a regional security threat.

For protection, Japan relies on its own military and nearly 50,000 U.S. troops based in the country under a 51-year-old joint security pact. That arrangement received extra scrutiny last year when former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama sought — and ultimately failed — to move a controversial U.S. Marine base off the southern island of Okinawa.

American forces were also actively involved in humanitarian relief efforts after March’s tsunami disaster.

Amid public alarm about China’s assertiveness, support for the American military bases in Japan has grown to 57 percent, while 34 percent want them withdrawn. In a similar 2005 poll, Japanese were evenly divided on the issue at 47 percent.

“The U.S. military presence has received a greater acceptance, apparently because people think this region has grown more unstable than before,” Foreign Minister Koichiro Genba said Monday in response to the results.

China is viewed as a threat to world peace by nearly three-quarters of respondents, and about as many have a negative impression of the country — which is also Japan’s largest trading partner. Unfavorable views of Chinese leader Hu Jintao outweigh favorable views by more than 11-to-1, the AP-GfK poll showed.

North Korea, meanwhile, is viewed as a threat by even more Japanese — 80 percent, up from 59 percent in 2005. The country, which fired missiles into waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan in 2005 and again in 2006, is viewed negatively by 94 percent. Its leader, Kim Jong Il, is disliked by nine in 10.

Many Japanese are supportive of their own military, called the Self-Defense Forces, with 74 percent trusting it to do the right thing all or most of the time.

But people were mixed over changing the constitution to give the military a greater international role, although more favored such a change — 38 percent — than opposed — 28 percent. About a third were neutral.

The Japanese Constitution, drawn up by a U.S. occupation force after World War II, prohibits the creation of an armed force that can be maintained for offensive purposes. But under pressure from the U.S. to play a larger role in regional security, Japan has become more involved in peacekeeping operations abroad. It also sent refueling ships to the Indian Ocean to help with the Afghan war.

Most Japanese continue to hold Emperor Akihito, who lacks any political power, in high esteem: 70 percent view him favorably and 65 percent feel the Imperial family still fits well with modern Japanese society.

Still, just 22 percent would favor giving the emperor power to set government policy, while 43 percent oppose such an expansion of imperial power. About a third are neutral.

President Barack Obama is seen positively by 41 percent of respondents, with the same number viewing him in a neutral way. Some 16 percent see him unfavorably. As a country, the United States is seen favorably by 49 percent, neutrally by 36 percent and unfavorably by 14 percent.

Germany garnered the smallest unfavorable rating — just 4 percent — with 48 percent giving the country a thumbs up. Chancellor Angela Merkel garnered a neutral rating from just over half the respondents, while 28 percent view her positively and 7 percent negatively.

Neighboring South Korea, whose television dramas and “K-pop” singers have become increasingly popular in Japan, isn’t so popular itself, with 31 percent viewing the country positively and 27 percent negatively.

Russia, meanwhile, is viewed positively by just 11 percent and negatively by 44 percent.

Japan has come under fire internationally for its whale hunting, but the Japanese public narrowly favors whaling for commercial purposes, the survey showed. Fifty-two percent favor it, 35 percent are neutral and 13 percent are opposed. Far more men are in favor than women.

However, few — 12 percent — are deeply interested in eating whale meat themselves. Most — 66 percent— have little or no interest in dining on whale.

Commercial whaling is banned under a 1986 moratorium but various exceptions have allowed Japan, as well as Iceland and Norway, to hunt whales anyway. Japan claims its hunts are for research purposes, though the meat from the killed whales mostly ends up in restaurants, stores and school lunches.

The AP-GfK telephone poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications surveyed 1,000 adults across Japan by landline telephone between July 29 and Aug. 10, and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

___

Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the AP-GfK poll on attitudes and opinions of Japanese public was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the attitudes and opinions of Japanese was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from July 29 to Aug. 10. It is based on landline telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults.

The survey sample frame includes Japanese households that have at least one fixed telephone landline, or about 91 percent of all Japanese households, and represents the national population of Japan aged 18 and older living in the 47 prefectures (states).

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed numbers. The sample was stratified by region with targets set for the number of complete calls per region.

Interviews were conducted in Japanese by live interviewers in a Tokyo-based telephone interviewing center.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s composition. That included Japan’s mix by age within sex, city or region, and by education.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.8 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in Japan were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Aug
26

87% in US disapprove of Congress; Boehner, tea party take hits from debt debate

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press

Americans are plenty angry at Congress in the aftermath of the debt crisis and Republicans could pay the greatest price, a new Associated Press-GfK poll suggests.

The poll finds the tea party has lost support, Republican House Speaker John Boehner is increasingly unpopular and people are warming to the idea of not just cutting spending but also raising taxes — anathema to the GOP — just as both parties prepare for another struggle with deficit reduction.

To be sure, there is plenty of discontent to go around. The poll finds more people are down on their own member of Congress, not just the institution, an unusual finding in surveys and one bound to make incumbents particularly nervous. In interviews, some people said the debt standoff itself, which caused a crisis of confidence to ripple through world markets, made them wonder whether lawmakers are able to govern at all.

“I guess I long for the day back in the ’70s and ’80s when we could disagree but we could get a compromise worked out,” said Republican Scott MacGregor, 45, a Windsor, Conn., police detective. “I don’t think there’s any compromise anymore.”

The results point to a chilly autumn in Washington as the divided Congress returns to the same fiscal issues that almost halted other legislative business and are certain to influence the struggle for power in the 2012 elections. They suggest that politicians, regardless of party, have little to gain by prolonging the nation’s most consequential policy debate. And they highlight the gap between the wider public’s wishes now and the tea party’s cut-it-or-shut-it philosophy that helped propel Republicans into the House majority last year.

The survey, conducted Aug. 18-22, found that approval of Congress has dropped to its lowest level in AP-GfK polling — 12 percent. That’s down from 21 percent in June, before the debt deal reached fever pitch.

The results indicate, too, that the question of trust remains up for grabs — a sign that the government’s stewardship of the economy over the next year will weigh heavily on the fortunes of both parties in the elections. Republicans and Democrats statistically tied, 40 percent to 43 percent respectively, when respondents were asked which party they trust more to handle the federal budget deficit. Nearly a third of independents said they trust neither party on the issue.

Much about the next election hinges on independent voters, the ever-growing group fiercely wooed by campaigns for years. These respondents, the poll found, were the least forgiving toward incumbents and shifted substantially toward the need to raise taxes as part of the deficit and debt solution.

Among them, 65 percent say they want their own House representative tossed out in 2012, compared with 53 percent of respondents generally.

This group, too, is helping fuel the shift toward raising taxes as a way to balance the budget. The poll found that among independents, 37 percent now say that increasing taxes should be the focus of the fiscal dealmakers, over cutting government services. That’s up nine points from March, the poll found.

The backlash was personal, too. Boehner, the congressional veteran from Ohio who struggled to win enough members of his own party to pass the debt deal, won approval from 29 percent of the poll’s respondents. That’s the lowest such level of his tenure and also the first time his rating is more negative than positive. Forty-seven percent of Republican respondents said they approve of Boehner; only a fifth of independents have a favorable opinion of him.

The tea party, too, took a hit, according to the poll. Unfavorable views of the tea party have climbed 10 percentage points since November, when they fueled the Republican resurgence. Of those, 32 percent have a deeply unfavorable impression of the movement and just a quarter of respondents say they consider themselves supporters of the tea party — the lowest in AP-GfK polling and a dip of 8 percentage points since June.

Overall, 87 percent disapproved of Congress’ performance. Entrenched partisanship explained some of the discontent.

“They’re so committed to their personal ways, and party’s way, that they are having a hard time finding a middle road,” Republican Frank Chase, 77, a military retiree from Hopkinton, Mass., said of both sides.

Democrat Laurie Lewis, a Rutgers University professor from Flemington, N.J., agreed with that much. “Elect those who are willing to make compromise on both sides of the hall,” she said. Still, “I don’t think it’s smart to say throw out everyone.”

On budget and debt policy, the poll finds a public warming to the idea of using tax increases to help solve the fiscal crisis, a potential boon to President Barack Obama and the congressional Democrats who want to end Bush-era tax breaks for the nation’s wealthiest Americans. Republicans bristle at anything called a tax increase, though some acknowledge that more revenue must be raised.

It’s perhaps the most difficult issue of the debate and carries tremendous influence over the nations’ economic future and the political fortunes of the candidates next year, when the presidency and the House and Senate majorities are at stake. The problem now rests on the shoulders of a dozen House and Senate members named to a supercommittee that will spend the fall digging into the morass that the broader Congress couldn’t solve.

Asked which should be the main focus of lawmakers trying to solve that problem, raising taxes or cutting government services, 53 percent of respondents said cutting services and 34 percent said increasing taxes. That’s a shift toward raising taxes since March, when 29 percent said increasing taxes and 62 percent said cutting services.

Since then, more Democrats and independents have shifted toward taxes as a means of balancing the budget, while Republican views on the question have not moved, according to the poll. Half of Democrats polled said raising taxes should be the focus over cutting services, up 10 percentage points from March. Independents showed a clear preference for cutting services over raising taxes in March, 64 percent to 28 percent. Now, only 42 percent of independents say focus on cutting services while 37 percent say increase taxes, according to the poll.

Overall, 57 percent of respondents believe both that that taxes will rise and government services will be cut in order to balance the federal budget.

The poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

____

Associated Press writers Ken Thomas, Kasie Hunt and Stacy Anderson, and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius, contributed to this report.

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Congress and the budget was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Aug
26

AP-GfK Poll finds most Republicans satisfied with presidential field; Perry gets high marks

By KASIE HUNT and JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press

After grousing for months, Republicans are growing more satisfied with their choices for president and, so far, they like what they’re hearing from the newest candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

An Associated Press-GfK poll released Friday found that two-thirds of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents are pleased with the party’s presidential field, compared with just half in June. And they’re paying more attention, with 52 percent expressing a “great deal” of interest in the GOP nomination fight — compared with 39 percent earlier this summer — after a period that saw Perry enter the race and Michele Bachmann win a test vote in Iowa, the lead-off caucus state, threatening Mitt Romney’s standing at the top of the pack.

The poll shows Perry — who has never run a national campaign and is just now introducing himself to most people — benefiting from wall-to-wall news coverage over the past few weeks as he became a candidate and jostled the until-then sleepy contest. Just 12 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents have a negative impression of the Texas governor. And 63 percent of Republicans view him in a positive light, compared with 33 percent in June.

Beyond that, Republicans didn’t change their impressions much about Romney. Nearly 2 in 3 still view the former Massachusetts governor positively, while just under a quarter view him negatively as he runs a cautious, methodical campaign that’s facing its first true test in Perry.

Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the Iowa straw poll, got roughly the same marks as Romney now that she’s boosted her national profile. Both her positive and negative ratings rose in the two months since she entered the contest and started to become better known.

Broadly, the results suggest that Republicans are coming around to the idea that there may be a winner in the bunch after being less than enthusiastic for months and even though party elders continue to grouse that the field lacks a candidate strong enough to take on President Barack Obama. As recently as this week, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — again — insisted they weren’t running for president despite urging from supporters.

Sarah Palin, the GOP’s 2008 vice presidential nominee, says she’ll announce in late September whether she will run.

Stay-at-home mom Jennifer Bevington of Toledo, Ohio, is among those Republicans who like what they see, saying: “Out of the top three — Michele Bachmann, Perry and Romney — of who’s running, they should be able to come up with a good candidate.”

Mary Parish of Troy, Tenn., had doubted for months that any of the candidates in the field were strong enough to run the country or topple Obama. Now, the retired convenience store manager says: “I like Rick Perry. I think he’s a Christian, a good Christian person. I like what he stands for, and I think he’s strong enough to beat Obama.”

Still, while Republicans like them are warming up to the field, the overall population still has significant doubts and is largely unimpressed, which could bode well for Obama come the general election.

Just 41 percent of all those surveyed expressed satisfaction with the official and unofficial GOP candidates, about the same as in June, and only Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor toying with a candidacy, get significantly higher favorable marks than unfavorable ones among certain or possible presidential contenders. And no Republican candidate — declared or otherwise — is viewed favorably by a majority of people.

This GOP field has been remarkably slow to form as Republicans look to challenge a politically vulnerable Democratic incumbent saddled with high unemployment, rampant foreclosures and soaring debt.

Now, five months before the Republican nomination contests are to begin, the field is largely set with Romney, Perry and Bachmann clustered near the top of many surveys, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul. Nearly everyone else is languishing far behind, including former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former pizza executive Herman Cain and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

The poll also found:

—Among Republicans who back the tea party, 80 percent view Bachmann favorably while 74 percent see Perry positively. Among those Republicans who don’t back the coalition, just 37 percent have positive impressions of Bachmann and 48 percent of Perry.

—Romney earns positive reviews from a broader group of Republicans than Bachmann or Perry do. Majorities of both conservative and more liberal Republicans hold favorable views of him, which suggests he may be able to stitch together a broader coalition of supporters than his rivals to win the GOP nomination.

—Negative impressions of Romney among all adults grew 6 percentage points, topping 4 in 10 for the first time in AP-GfK polling. That’s a warning sign for Romney as he executes a strategy to run a general election campaign focused on Obama and the economy while appealing to a broad spectrum of voters.

—Huntsman’s negative rankings crept upward during the first few months of his campaign, and he was the only GOP candidate viewed unfavorably by as many Republicans as view him positively.

The poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellular telephone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll included interviews with 408 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents; the margin of error for these results is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points.

____

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Associated Press writers Ken Thomas and Stacy A. Anderson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults and included 408 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Aug
25

More see country headed in wrong direction, but Bush gets more blame than Obama

By TOM RAUM, Associated Press

Americans’ views on the economy have dimmed this summer. But so far, the growing pessimism doesn’t seem to be taking a toll on President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects.

More people now believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows, and confidence in Obama’s handling of the economy has slipped from just a few months ago, notably among fellow Democrats.

The survey found that 86 percent of adults see the economy as “poor,” up from 80 percent in June. About half — 49 percent — said it worsened just in the past month. Only 27 percent responded that way in the June survey.

That can’t be good news for a president revving up his re-election campaign. Yet there are several hopeful signs for Obama.

Despite the perception of a weakening recovery, there has been no significant change in the number of people who say he deserves re-election: 47 percent as opposed to 48 percent two months ago. That’s a statistical dead heat with those who favor a change in the White House.

And more Americans still blame former President George W. Bush rather than Obama for the economic distress. Some 31 percent put the bulk of the blame on Obama, while 51 percent point to his Republican predecessor.

“I think Bush had a hand in it, too. Obama’s not totally responsible,” said Mary Parish, 68, of Troy, Tenn. An independent who voted for Republican John McCain in 2008, she said she doesn’t believe Obama has what it takes to heal the economy. “He’s a smooth-talking man. But he does not know what he’s doing.”

Obama also fares better than Congress in the blame department. Some 44 percent put “a lot” or “most” of the blame on Republicans while 36 percent point to congressional Democrats.

The gloomy economic outlook reflected in the poll, which was taken Aug. 18-22, follows a round of bleak government economic reports — on unemployment, the housing market and economic growth that fell below 1 percent for the first six months of the year. It was taken amid heightened worries of a new U.S. recession, fallout from a downgrade of the country’s credit rating and a spreading European debt crisis.

As the public’s outlook on the economy dips, so has approval for the president’s economic stewardship.

More than 6 in 10 — 63 percent — disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. Nearly half, or 48 percent, “strongly” disapproved. Approval of his economic performance now stands at just 36 percent, his worst approval rating on the issue in AP-GfK polling.

Among Democrats, 58 percent approve of the president’s handling of the economy, down from 65 percent in June. Among Republicans, approval dipped to 9 percent from 15 percent.

Just 51 percent consider Obama a strong leader, down from 60 percent in June and 65 percent following the capture and death of Osama bin Laden in May. In June, 85 percent of Democrats in the poll called him a strong leader. Now, the number is down to 76 percent.

Of course, there are limits to what a president can do.

“I think he can nudge it along, but really, it boils down to the private sector,” said Dan Elliott, 42, of Hillsboro, Ill., an independent who voted for Obama in 2008 and says he’ll probably vote for him again.

Judith Lee, 63, a retired teacher from Great Diamond Island, Maine, said she’s a Republican who voted for Obama in 2008 but has been disappointed by his leadership style.

“I don’t think he is a very forceful leader,” Lee said. “His style of leadership seems to be to look for consensus and ideas from other people, and it seems to have been ineffective. And Congress seems to be deadlocked on problems.”

Some 75 percent in the poll said the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 63 percent in June. Among Democrats, 61 percent chose “wrong direction” — up from 46 percent in June.

Country heading in the Right / Wrong Direction

And for the first time for Obama in the poll, a majority of all adults said they disapprove of his overall performance — 52 percent, up from 47 percent in June. Among Democrats, approval fell 8 points, to 74 percent from 82 percent in June. Among Republicans, it fell to 11 percent from 22 percent.

Politically, the poll underscores the difficult time ahead for Obama as he seeks re-election in a shaky economy.

Unemployment increased to 9.2 percent in July, up from 9.1 percent in June. And most economists don’t expect it to decline much below 8.5 percent by the November 2012 presidential election. No president has won re-election with a jobless rate that high since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.

So why hasn’t the rise in pessimism taken more of a toll?

Despite the general rise in gloom, it seems unlikely that liberal Democrats will flock away from Obama even if they have rising doubts about his agenda or economic leadership, analysts suggest. And independents, who helped elect Obama in 2008 and are now being actively wooed by both parties, did not exhibit significant changes in their approval levels.

It was at 44 percent, statistically no different from the 43 percent approval rating among independents in June.

“A lot is out of his hands,” said Penny Johansen, 65, a retired legal secretary from Tempe, Ariz. “There is only so much one person can do, and one person cannot be blamed for the acts of others.” Politically unaligned, she voted for Obama in 2008 and says she’ll probably do so again.

On related economic issues, 59 percent said they disapproved of Obama’s handling of tax issues, up from 53 percent in June. And 64 percent said they disapproved of his handling of the annual budget deficit, compared with 63 percent in June.

Sixty percent described the financial situation in their own households as “good,” about even with the level in June. Asked if they expected their financial situation to change over the next 12 months, 31 percent said they expected it to get better, 12 percent expected it to get worse and a majority — 56 percent — said they expected it to “stay about the same.”

As to creating jobs, some 44 percent said they would trust Democrats to do a better job, while 42 percent said Republicans would.

The AP-GfK poll was conducted Aug. 18-22 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

___

Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writers Kasie Hunt and Stacy Anderson contributed to this report.

___

Online:

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Jul
25

Stresses over personal debt return as public doubts on economic recovery grow

By CONNIE CASS, Associated Press

Just last fall, Americans were feeling better about their personal finances. Now they’re starting to worry more about how they’ll pay off debts as they feel the nation’s economic recovery wobbling.

With Congress deadlocked over how to deal with the national debt, household debt is causing stress for nearly half the country, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. One in five adults worries about debt most or all of the time. If they bought something on a credit card in the past month, more than a third say they won’t pay it off when the bill comes.

The increased stress represents a reversal from last fall’s AP-GfK poll, which found increasing confidence about personal finances. Debt-related stress is up 17 percent from that November survey, bumping such worries back up to levels seen in 2009 and in the spring of last year.

“It’s not that our debt is huge. It’s just hard to make it, month to month,” said Theresa Telford, 45, a teacher’s aide raising four kids with her husband, a sheriff’s deputy. “It seems like everything is going up, but wages aren’t going up.”

Telford is also nervous because she’s watched so many people lose their jobs in her small town of Davenport, Wash., and some of her friends still can’t find work. Although the recession officially ended in June 2009, Americans display little faith in a recovery hobbled by grinding unemployment, slow economic growth, volatile gasoline and food prices and political feuding over how to stem the skyrocketing national debt. Consumer confidence fell to a seven-month low in June in the Conference Board’s survey.

“We’re starting to be fearful again that things may fall apart,” said Paul J. Lavrakas, a research psychologist and AP consultant who analyzed the survey. Lavrakas and other researchers have found that debt can be bad for the health as well as the wallet. Those suffering the most anxiety over their debt are at risk for stress-related illnesses, such as ulcers, depression or heart attacks.

The poll found that households earning more than $75,000 had the biggest increase in debt-related stress since November. But stress levels continue to be highest within the most vulnerable groups: households that have lost jobs, people with family incomes below $20,000, single parents, and adults without high school diplomas. Married moms and adults under 30 years old showed significantly more anxiety than in the fall.

In all, more than 40 million Americans are feeling serious stress over the money they owe, whether it’s for credit cards, mortgages, car loans or other debts, the poll indicates.

It’s a tough period for high school dance instructor James J. Moran of Shelton, Conn. He doesn’t get paid during summer break, except for the occasional dancing or acting jobs he lands.

“For three months I scrape by and I can only afford to make the minimum payments on my credit cards,” said Moran, who owes more than $5,000 on his cards and about $14,000 in student loans. “I put more toward the debts when I can, but when I can’t that’s when I really worry.”

The news isn’t all bleak. Although it ticked upward, the Debt Stress Index based on the AP-GfK poll came in at 29.2, still within the range considered moderately low. Most people say they are handling their credit cards well in lean times.

Nine out of 10 people with credit cards say they trust themselves to handle debt. Most say they use credit cards because they’re more convenient than cash. About half say they charge only what they can afford to pay for at the end of the month.

“Am I going off and buying things right now? No,” said Donald Doane, 53, of Duluth, Minn. Doane said he carries “a little debt but nothing I can’t handle” on a low-interest credit card that he reserves for emergencies and big purchases.

A salesman for Savories Catering in Duluth, Minn., Doane tracks the economy by how much his customers spend on wedding receptions and office parties. “People are spending,” he said, “it’s just that they’re being more frugal.”

Americans have been borrowing less and saving more in response to the Great Recession and its aftermath. Credit card borrowing increased in May, only the second monthly gain since August 2008, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest figures. The total is still down 18.5 percent from its peak in August 2008.

The AP-GfK poll put median credit card debt in June at $800, the same as in November. Average debt was down slightly from November at $3,200. About four in 10 people surveyed owe more than $1,000 in credit card debt. One in every 10 owes $10,000 or more.

Lavrakas said the poll provides a snapshot of the typical American who’s seriously stressed by debt: a working parent, in his or her 30s or early 40s, who doesn’t have a high school diploma and is raising a family on household income of less than $20,000.

Those reporting the highest stress levels were more likely than others to say they had debt due to medical bills, that their financial situation was “very poor,” that they charge things they know they cannot pay off when the bill comes and that they don’t trust themselves to manage their credit cards. They are pessimistic about the future, both because of their personal finances and the nation’s.

“The most stressed people are at the lower financial tiers, and that’s just the reality of their life,” Lavrakas said. “The optimism that some of them may have had last fall didn’t pan out. They’ve sunk into being pessimistic and they have good reason to be.”

Troy Clawson, a disabled former construction worker in Felsenthal, Ark., said he has been worrying more about his debts — his mortgage and car payments, medical bills for himself and his wife, and store credit cards at Wal-Mart and an auto repair shop.

So Clawson, 60, is trying to be more cautious and avoid pulling out his credit cards. “I don’t really like to,” he said, “but sometimes it’s necessary when you’re in a bind.”

The AP-GfK poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 715 who have credit cards. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

___

Associated Press writer Stacy Anderson, Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

Online:

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the debt-stress poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on debt-related stress was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults, including 715 credit card holders. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for credit card holders is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Jul
14

Debit card fees might change behavior

By CANDICE CHOI

Americans prefer using their debit cards at the register. But a small fee could change that.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds that about two-thirds of consumers use debit cards more frequently than credit cards. But when debit card holders were asked how they would react if they were charged a $3 monthly fee for their debit card, 61 percent say they’d find another way to pay.

If the fee was $5, 66 percent would do the same. If the fee was $7, the figure rises to 81 percent.

The findings come at a time when consumers are seeing unwelcome changes to their debit cards and the checking accounts to which they’re linked. Although banks haven’t started imposing monthly fees for debit cards, there are signs higher costs could be on the way.

Starting in October, a new cap will sharply limit the revenue banks can collect from merchants whenever customers swipe their debit cards. That revenue has been a critical income source for banks; merchants paid issuers $19.7 billion for debit transactions in 2009, according to the Nilson Report, which tracks the payments industry.

Consumers are already seeing the fallout. Chase, PNC Bank and Wells Fargo ended or scaled back their debit rewards programs citing the new regulation. The availability of free checking accounts also declined last year for the first time since 2003.

And more changes could be in store.

Chase, for example, is testing a $3 monthly fee for debit cards on new accounts in northern Wisconsin. In Atlanta, it’s testing a $15 monthly fee on basic checking accounts.

Among the AP-GfK poll respondents who say they would leave their debit cards in their wallets in the face of such fees, more say they’d pay with cash, 53 percent, or check, 42 percent, rather than another form of plastic.

“Cash or checks — they’re not very expensive,” said Aaron Alto, a 44-year-old resident of Grand Rapids, Minn. Alto says he’d be annoyed enough to look for an alternative to his debit card if the fees approached $10.

Debit card fees would cause 22 percent to switch to credit cards, and 12 percent say they would switch to a prepaid spending card.

For now, the notable preference for debit could be linked to a negative sentiment about credit cards; nearly half of respondents to the AP-GfK poll say the interest rates they’re charged are unfair.

That may be because 30 percent had their interest rates hiked in the past two years. That’s more than twice the number who say their rates were lowered.

Forty-two percent of respondents also say the fees and penalties on their cards are unfair; 37 percent say card issuers recently raised those potential charges.

The higher rates and fees may have surprised consumers in light of the new regulations that were intended to protect cardholders and put an end to questionable billing practices.

Under the rules that went into effect last February, cardholders are now entitled to 45 days notice before their rates are hiked. Card issuers are also prohibited from raising rates on existing balances, a once-common practice that consumer advocates had long decried.

Additionally, the one-time penalty fees for late payments are capped at $25 per violation. But there’s no limit on how high banks can hike interest rates on purchases or the default interest rates that kick in when customers are late on payments.

Earl Law, a 61-year-old resident of Buffalo, N.Y., said the penalty rate on a few of his cards is 30 percent.

“It’s absurd. It’s usurious,” he said. “If you’re struggling with debt, that’s the last thing you need. You’re asking people to fail.”

Despite the widespread discontent with interest rates, the regulations are having a clear, positive impact in one area: monthly statements. Nearly half of respondents say they’re now easier to understand.

Part of the reason is that the new law requires credit card issuers to spell out the cost of carrying a balance. For example, statements now include a chart that shows how long it would take to pay off a balance if only minimum payments were made. The chart also includes the total amount the cardholder would pay over that time, including interest charges.

The increased transparency might be one reason why the majority of consumers — 78 percent — say they plan to stick with their cards, despite their grumblings about high rates and fees.

It could also be that consumers have grown numb to unpleasant changes. In the months leading up to the passage of the new regulations, many cardholders saw their interest rates hiked, credit limits slashed and inactive accounts shut down.

The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, including 715 who have credit cards and 706 debit card holders. Results from the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points; it is 4.8 points for those with credit or debit cards.

___

Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

Online:

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on changes to credit card laws was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellphones. The sample included 715 credit card holders and 706 debit card holders.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. For results among credit card holders and debit card holders, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Jun
25

Now what? Prospect of US debt default finds people in state of doomsday fatigue

By Calvin Woodward

It might be time for another midnight ride by Paul Revere, this time warning “the creditors are coming.”

Americans seem not to have awakened to the fast-looming debt crisis that could summon a new recession, imperil their stock market investments and shatter faith in the world’s most powerful economy. Those are among the implications, both sudden and long-lasting, expected to unfold if the U.S. defaults on debt payments for the first time in history.

Facing an August deadline for raising the country’s borrowing limit or setting loose the consequences, politicians and economists are plenty alarmed. The people? Apparently not so much.

They’re divided on whether to raise the limit, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that found 41 percent opposed to the idea and 38 percent in favor.

People aren’t exactly blase. A narrow majority in the poll expects an economic crisis to ensue if the U.S., maxed out on its borrowing capacity, starts missing interest payments to creditors. But even among that group, 37 percent say no dice to raising the limit.

In Washington’s humid air, talk of a financial apocalypse is thick.

There are warnings of “credit markets in a state of panic,” as the House Budget Committee chairman, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., put it, causing a sudden drop-off in the country’s ability to borrow and pushing the government off a “credit cliff.”

He was characterizing a report by the government’s nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office that warns of a “sudden fiscal crisis” in which investors might abandon U.S. bonds and force the government to pay steep interest rates and impose spending cuts and tax increases far more Draconian than if default were avoided.

The dire warnings appear to be falling on unconvinced ears, at least so far.

Call it doomsday fatigue.

In recent times, Americans heard that things were going to go haywire with the turn of the millennium, and they didn’t. They were primed for post-Sept. 11 terrorist plots that did not unfold.

They’ve seen Congress, a lumbering body that gets fleet of foot at the last minute, come to the brink time after time, only to pull something out of its hat. Recently, a partial government shutdown was averted in that manner.

To Robin Knight, 50-year-old teacher from Gilbert, Ariz., who’s trying to stay informed on the debt crisis, Washington’s tendency to cry wolf and stage histrionics on issues of the day isn’t helping.

“It should be very easy to understand,” she said, “but I think there are so many skewed views and time given to people screaming that it can be hard to follow.”

As during the lead-up to the government shutdown that didn’t happen, tortured negotiations are under way.

Republican leaders are insisting on huge spending cuts as a condition for raising the debt limit. This position finds solid support from Republicans in the poll and backing from a plurality of independents.

President Barack Obama is pushing for increased tax revenue to be part of the deal, and that insistence led House Republican leader Eric Cantor of Virginia to walk out of the negotiations this past week.

About half of Democrats in the poll said the debt limit should be raised regardless of whether it’s paired with a deal to cut spending.

The survey found no significant differences by education, age, income, or even by party, in perceptions of whether a crisis is likely if the limit is not increased. There was widespread dissatisfaction with how Obama is dealing with the deficit — a new high of 63 percent disapproval on that subject — and an even harsher judgment of how both parties in Congress are doing on the issue.

A deal would permit the government to resume borrowing more than $100 billion a month to pay its bills. Paradoxically — or “perversely,” as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke put it — the absence of a deal would not stop the nation’s debt from climbing.

Bernanke said the stain on U.S. creditworthiness would drive up deficits simply by saddling the country with higher interest rates on borrowing.

Deficit hawks at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget say a 1 percentage point jump in interest rates paid by Washington would increase deficits by $1.3 trillion through 2021, essentially adding a year’s worth of red ink.

Although people in the poll betray plenty of concern about the debt, the prospect of a calamity-triggering default if the debt deadline is not met in August clearly is not dominating their calculations.

The AP-GfK poll, as do many surveys over time, points to a divide in how people see the country and their own lives. The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Although 80 percent ranked the economy as poor, 63 percent also said the financial situation in their own household was good. Also, 70 percent predicted the economy will improve or stay about the same in the next year. A majority says it’s a good time to put money into real estate.

Altogether, it’s not unlike the bumper sticker sported on some cars when the world as we know it was supposed to end back in May: “After the Rapture, can I have your car?”

___

AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Stacy Anderson contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the debt ceiling was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

Jun
23

Bachmann, Pawlenty make gains as Republicans get better acquainted with GOP field

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and NANCY BENAC, Associated Press

Republicans are starting to pay more attention to the candidates who hope to take on President Barack Obama next year, and so far that’s been a good thing for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty.

For Newt Gingrich, not so much.

Overall, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows, Republicans are giving the field of challengers a so-so assessment as interest in the race increases. And, with growing doubts among Americans that Obama deserves re-election, Democratic interest in the GOP field is significant, too.

Bachmann, a three-term congresswoman supported by many tea party members, enjoyed a big boost in her favorability rating among Republicans after she turned in a smooth debate performance this month and joined the presidential race.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty also made progress with Republicans, particularly among tea party supporters. GOP field leader Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, held steady in the eyes of Republicans — but gained no ground — with the formal launch of his campaign. Former House Speaker Gingrich, who announced his campaign five weeks ago, wasn’t feeling the love.

The Georgian’s favorability rating among Republicans plunged in one month from 61 percent to 43 percent as his campaign was plagued by massive staff defections, abysmal fund-raising and reports that he and his wife had racked up huge bills at luxury jeweler Tiffany’s.

Gingrich did the logical thing in response: dismiss the importance of early political handicapping.

In an appearance this week, he noted that if early conventional wisdom had been accurate, Hillary Rodham Clinton would have won the Democratic nomination for president in 2008, not Barack Obama, and Rudy Giuliani would have been the GOP nominee, not John McCain.

There was plenty for political spectators to watch in the past month as GOP candidates moved themselves in — and out — of contention, and more Republicans tuned in: 71 percent of Republicans surveyed said they had a great deal or quite of bit of interest in the contest, compared with 65 percent in May and March.

That isn’t necessarily translating into enthusiasm, however.

“There’s no dynamite person,” said 66-year-old Rich McGough, of Mount Gretna, Pa. But McGough allowed that Bachmann offers some “pizazz,” and Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who’s considering joining the race, also would be solid choices.

Republicans can take comfort that satisfaction with the GOP field rose. Fifty-two percent said they were satisfied with the slate this month, up from 41 percent a month earlier. And satisfaction was highest among those who were paying the closest attention.

Overall, Americans are about evenly divided on whether Obama deserves re-election — 48 percent say yes, 47 percent no — and that could be driving broader interest in the GOP nomination race.

Among all those surveyed, 59 percent said they were interested in the GOP contest. But just 39 percent were satisfied with the Republican field of candidates. Among independents, 57 percent were dissatisfied.

The expected GOP field has done considerable shifting this spring, gaining Bachmann and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman while losing Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, and businessman Donald Trump.

Some voters remain hopeful the lineup ultimately will include candidates who are still big question marks: Perry, former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin and former New York Mayor Giuliani.

Rancher and school teacher Jeanne Renfro, 52, from Channing, Texas, says she’d like to see Perry join the race.

“I’m not sure that I would actually vote for Rick Perry, but I think if he would actually get in he would bring some valuable debate to the issues,” she said. Overall, Renfro said, “I’m not too impressed” with the GOP field.

Among other poll details:

—Republicans still give Romney the highest favorability rating among announced candidates, at 61 percent. Palin, who’s keeping everyone guessing about her intentions, is holding steady, too, with a 63 percent favorability rating.

—Bachmann’s favorability rating jumped from 41 percent to 54 percent among Republicans. A third still have no opinion about her, and it’s too soon to tell if her boost will endure or was a June phenomenon.

—Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23 percent favorability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59 percent had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66 percent a month earlier. But the result was an increase in those with an unfavorable opinion, from 11 percent to 17 percent, with a greater uptick among tea party supporters.

—Pawlenty, one of the first to get into the race, saw his favorable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43 percent. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points.

The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The survey included 429 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.2 percentage point margin of error.

___

Associated Press News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults and included 429 Republicans. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use _ landline only, cell only and both types _ by region.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Jun
22

Slow economic recovery hurting Obama politically as re-election campaign nears

By JIM KUHNHENN and STACY ANDERSON, Associated Press

Mired in economic worry, Americans are growing gloomier about where the country is headed and the way President Barack Obama is leading it. Opinions of the economy are at the lowest of the year as high gas prices, anemic hiring and financial turmoil abroad shake a nation’s confidence.

Obama has hit new highs he’d like to avoid — in public disapproval over his handling of the economy in general and unemployment in particular — according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. In addition, more disapprove of his handling of health care and the federal budget deficit than in the past.

The poll shows that four out of five people now believe the economy is in poor shape. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, said Wednesday the economy was growing more slowly than expected but maintained that the causes were temporary.

The White House must hope so. A little more than 16 months before the November 2012 election, the public is split on whether the president deserves a second term.

It’s the first time this year in AP-GfK polling that the respondents saying he deserves re-election have fallen below 50 percent, a demanding challenge for Obama. Economic concern has quickly stripped away the gloss he briefly gained after the death of Osama bin Laden.

Obama’s re-election team is no doubt concerned as well. The president has been traveling every week for months to campaign battleground states to promote job initiatives. He acknowledges the sluggishness of the recovery, illustrated by May’s uptick in unemployment.

The price of gasoline at the pump has declined a bit recently though it is still nearly 90 cents higher on average than a year ago. White House officials are also monitoring the precarious fiscal situation in Greece where a default by the government could send damaging financial tremors across world markets.

Obama’s overall approval rating fell to 52 percent in the new poll, in line with his ratings before the daring raid in Pakistan by U.S. commandos last month that killed bin Laden.

“I just think that he’s not doing his job the way he should be,” said Mary Perrine, a grandmother of three from Indiana who said she has had to struggle to pay her bills.

Still, the poll also showed the public to be conflicted about the president. And their perceptions about the national economy were often at odds with their own personal experiences.

More people — 56 percent of respondents — had a favorable impression of Obama himself than approved of his performance. Moreover, about three-quarters of the survey participants said it is unrealistic to expect noticeable results on the economy in one term.

And despite the overwhelming sentiment that the national economy is in poor shape, more than three of five of those polled rated the financial situation of their own households as good. While glum about the current state of the economy, one-third said they expect it to get better over the next year. Less than a third said it would get worse, and the remainder said it would remain the same.

In another consolation for the president, he rates far better than Congress with the public. Congressional job disapproval climbed to 76 percent in the poll, a new high.

Obama may have to count on the likes of John Holdnak, a Florida Department of Education administrator, who didn’t vote for him in 2008 buts believes “he has really stepped up to do this job.”

Does Obama deserve re-election? “I don’t know yet. A lot of things can happen now and between the election that could be his fault. At this particular juncture, he hasn’t done anything in my mind not to be re-elected,” said Holdnak, one of the survey participants.

___

Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the Obama-Economy poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 16-20. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

May
24

Federal budget can be balanced without cutting Social Security and Medicare

They’re not buying it. Most Americans say they don’t believe Medicare has to be cut to balance the federal budget, and ditto for Social Security, a new poll shows.

The Associated Press-GfK poll suggests that arguments for overhauling the massive benefit programs to pare government debt have failed to sway the public. The debate is unlikely to be resolved before next year’s elections for president and Congress.

Americans worry about the future of the retirement safety net, the poll found, and 3 out of 5 say the two programs are vital to their basic financial security as they age. That helps explain why the Republican Medicare privatization plan flopped, and why President Barack Obama’s Medicare cuts to finance his health care law contributed to Democrats losing control of the House in last year’s elections.

Medicare seems to be turning into the new third rail of politics.

“I’m pretty confident Medicare will be there, because there would be a rebellion among voters,” said Nicholas Read, 67, a retired teacher who lives near Buffalo, N.Y. “Republicans only got a hint of that this year. They got burned. They touched the hot stove.”

Combined, Social Security and Medicare account for about a third of government spending, a share that will only grow. Economic experts say the cost of retirement programs for an aging society is the most serious budget problem facing the nation. The trustees who oversee Social Security and Medicare recently warned the programs are “not sustainable” over the long run under current financing.

Nearly every solution for Social Security is politically toxic, because the choices involve cutting benefits or raising taxes. Medicare is even harder to fix because the cost of modern medicine is going up faster than the overall cost of living, outpacing economic growth as well as tax revenues.

“Medicare is an incredibly complex area,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who used to chair the Budget Committee. “It’s a matrix that is almost incomprehensible. Unlike Social Security, which has four or five moving parts, Medicare has hundreds of thousands. There is no single approach to Medicare, whereas with Social Security everyone knows where the problem is.”

That’s not what the public sees, however.

“It’s more a matter of bungling, and lack of oversight, and waste and fraud, and padding of the bureaucracy,” said Carolyn Rodgers, who lives near Memphis, Tenn., and is still working as a legal assistant at 74. “There is no reason why even Medicare, if it had been handled right, couldn’t have been solvent.”

In the poll, 54 percent said it’s possible to balance the budget without cutting spending for Medicare, and 59 percent said the same about Social Security.

Taking both programs together, 48 percent said the government could balance the budget without cutting either one. Democrats and political independents were far more likely than Republicans to say that neither program will have to be cut.

The recession cost millions their jobs and sent retirement savings accounts into a nosedive. It may also have underscored the value of government programs. Social Security kept sending monthly benefits to 55 million recipients, like clockwork; Medicare went on paying for everything from wheelchairs to heart operations.

Overall, 70 percent in the poll said Social Security is “extremely” or “very” important to their financial security in retirement, and 72 percent said so for Medicare. Sixty-two percent said that both programs are extremely or very important.

The sentiment was a lot stronger among the elderly. Eighty-four percent of those 65 or older said both programs are central to their financial security. Compare that to adults under 30, just starting out. Just under half, or 46 percent, said they believed both Social Security and Medicare would be extremely or very important to their financial security in retirement.

Old, middle-aged or just entering the workforce, most people are keenly aware of the cost of health care, and that may be helping to focus more attention on Medicare.

“Health insurance these days is very costly, and it’s not something that most people can afford to go out and buy on their own,” said Tim Messner, 38, a technology quality assurance analyst from Barberton, Ohio. “I don’t know that we could possibly plan ahead for medical insurance, but if you had to replace Social Security or investments, you at least have an idea of what you can live on.”

Numbers tell the story. As health care goes up, the value of Medicare benefits is catching up to Social Security’s. A two-earner couple with average wages retiring in 1980 would have expected to receive health care worth $132,000 through Medicare over their remaining lifetimes, and $446,000, or about three times more, in Social Security payments.

For a similar couple who retired last year, the Medicare benefit will be worth $343,000, compared to Social Security payments totaling $539,000, less than twice as much. The numbers, from economists at the nonpartisan Urban Institute, are adjusted for inflation to allow direct comparison. For low-income single retirees and some couples, the value of expected Medicare benefits already exceeds that of Social Security.

The poll found a deep current of pessimism about the future of Social Security and Medicare. As much as Americans say the programs are indispensable, only 35 percent say it’s extremely or very likely that Social Security will be there to pay benefits through their entire retirement. For Medicare, it was 36 percent.

Again, there’s a sharp difference between what the public believes and what experts say. Most experts say the programs will be there for generations to come. But they may look very different than they do today, and Americans should take note.

“Do they have a basis for worrying that these programs are going to pay them much less than they’re currently promising?” asked economist Charles Blahous. “Yes, absolutely. Do they have a basis for being concerned that the programs may have to be structurally changed in order to survive? The answer to that is yes, too.” A trustee of Social Security and Medicare, Blahous served as an economic adviser to President George W. Bush.

Republican lawmakers don’t inspire much confidence right now when it comes to dealing with retirement programs, the poll found. Democrats have the advantage as the party more trusted to do a better job handling Social Security by 52 percent to 34 percent, and Medicare by 54 percent to 33 percent. Often, but not always, major revisions have been accomplished through bipartisan compromise.

Sue DeSantis, 61, a store clerk from West Milton, Ohio, worries she won’t be able to rely on either program. Both are important to her well-being, but she thinks changes are inevitable. And she has little confidence in lawmakers.

“I don’t put my faith in politicians, and I don’t put my faith in the government,” said DeSantis. “I’m a Christian. I believe that God will take care of me. That doesn’t mean I should be foolish and not look at anything, but I don’t believe that the politicians are necessarily going to do the best for the common ordinary person like myself.”

The Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted May 5-9, 2011, by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

____

Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

____

Online:

Poll results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Medicare and Social Security was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR and STEPHEN OHLEMACHER

May
20

Gas prices force many to change vacation plans and drive less; some skimp on medicine

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and JENNIFER C. KERR

With gasoline prices hovering at $4 a gallon nationally, many Americans are making tough choices: scaling back summer vacations, driving less or ditching the car altogether. Some seniors are choosing a tank of gas over their prescriptions.

An Associated Press-GfK poll shows the share of Americans who say increases in the price of gasoline will cause serious financial hardship for them or their family in the next six months now tops 4 in 10.

Overall in the poll, 71 percent said rising prices will cause some hardship for them and their family, including 41 percent who called it a “serious” hardship. Just 29 percent said rising prices are not causing a negative impact on their finances.

By income, 63 percent of those with annual household incomes over $50,000 now say rising prices are causing financial hardship, up from 55 percent in March.

For older Americans, it’s worse.

The share of seniors expressing financial hardship over gas prices hit 76 percent; it was 68 percent in March.

Nettie Cash, 65, of Dallas, Ga., is cutting back on her medicine because of the cost of fueling up her Buick. Cash is still taking her heart pills but is forgoing her inhaler and ulcer medicine for now.

“It’s not easy,” she said. “You have to do what you have to do.”

The public’s coping strategies are largely unchanged from March, with 72 percent having cut back on other expenses, 66 percent saying they’ve reduced the amount of driving they do and 48 percent changing vacation plans.

Since January, gas prices have shot up about 90 cents, with the national average for a gallon of regular this week at $3.96.

Financial analyst Nicole Polite in Baltimore sold her Nissan Altima recently and is taking public transportation, opting for the bus, rails and walking to get to work. Gas prices were just too high, she says, so she and her boyfriend downsized to a one-car household. She says they kept their Lexus sedan, which requires pricey premium gas.

“It’s definitely a financial strain because now you have to reassess everything,” said Polite, 32. “We don’t go out as much. That $20 that we could have used to go to a movie — now that money has been absorbed by the gas tank.”

But analysts say relief is coming. Fred Rozell, retail pricing director at the Oil Price Information Service, expects the price at the pump to drop as much as 40 cents in the next four weeks.

Until that happens, Ross Cobb in Boerne, Texas, will still try to keep his highway miles down. Cobb says he and his wife have been driving less and curbing trips into the city for their children’s clothing and other supplies.

“We coordinate all of our trips into San Antonio,” said Cobb, an associate athletic director at the University of Texas. “We don’t ever go in anymore just for one particular errand. We wait until we’ve got two or three things to do.”

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted May 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

___

Polling Director Trevor Tompson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on gasoline prices was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

May
13

Republicans shrug at GOP’s 2012 field

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and NANCY BENAC

The more Republicans get to know their potential White House candidates, the less happy they are with their choices.

It’s not that they dislike the individual candidates. They just give them a collective shrug as possible opponents for President Barack Obama. They’d like someone with a little more pizazz.

Some 45 percent now say they’re dissatisfied with the GOP candidates who have declared or are thought to be serious about running, up from 33 percent two months ago, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll. Just 41 percent are satisfied with the likely Republican field, down from 52 percent.

Plenty are holding out for somebody else.

In North Carolina, retiree Robert Osborne is hoping New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will decide to run. In Indiana, farmer Brent Smith wishes Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour hadn’t backed away. In Georgia, stock clerk Susan Demarest would love to see somebody more like Ronald Reagan.

Ohio’s William Johnson just wants somebody who’s not a “cold fish.”

“I don’t expect them to get up there and start doing karaoke, but we need somebody with a little more spunk,” says the Columbus steelworker.

While the Republican roster of candidates is growing almost by the day — Ron Paul declared on Thursday, and Mike Huckabee says he’ll make an important announcement this weekend — satisfaction with the field appears to be shrinking. Future polling could give a better idea of whether the dramatic raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, which gave a boost to Obama’s approval rating, also served to dampen enthusiasm temporarily for Republican candidates.

The poll was conducted May 5-9 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. The survey included 378 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.9 percentage point margin of error.

Four years ago at this time, there was a clearly different dynamic for the GOP. In late May 2007, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found Republicans generally content with their choices: 68 percent said they were satisfied with “the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president,” though that was well below the 79 percent level of satisfaction among Democrats.

So far this year, it looks like a case of GOP buyer’s remorse before all the merchandise is even out on the shelves.

Lori Raney, who owns a drapery workroom in Canton, Ga., says she’s sure to vote for the party’s eventual nominee. But so far, she says, no standout candidate has emerged. She’d be happy to vote for somebody with a level head, but says a lot of voters demand something more.

“Nowadays, people don’t really care about qualifications and common sense,” she says. “They want the celebrity figure to run for president. Republicans just don’t have the celebrity-type figure.”

Smith, the farmer from Zionsville, Ind., sees some good choices in the field and hopes that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets the nomination. But he confesses, “In truth, I don’t think there’s a Republican out there” who can beat Obama, because of the president’s strong support among minority voting blocs.

Candidate by candidate, Republicans display widely varying impressions of those who are in the GOP race or thinking about joining. With the field still gelling, a number of potential candidates are so little known that many Republicans can’t venture an opinion.

Former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee, who is viewed favorably by 72 percent of Republicans, has the highest rating of the lot. He’s thinking about running and said Friday he planned a “very important” announcement on his TV show this weekend.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who was the GOP vice presidential nominee in 2008, is viewed favorably by two-thirds of Republicans, as is Romney, who made a strong bid for the presidential nomination last time. Romney has all but announced this time; Palin is more of a question mark.

Palin’s support has held steady among Republicans in recent months, but her unfavorable rating among all adults is at a new high of 59 percent. Just 36 percent of Americans overall have a favorable opinion of her.

Romney’s favorability rating among Republicans has actually improved since March, growing from 59 percent to 66 percent.

The only other major Republican with a favorability rating above 50 percent in the poll was former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who didn’t enter the presidential race until the week after the poll was conducted. His favorability rating was 61 percent.

Businessman-TV celebrity Donald Trump was the only potential candidate to draw unfavorable reviews from half of Republicans. Forty-five percent viewed him favorably compared to 50 percent who rated him unfavorably.

GOP favorability ratings for lesser-known Republicans asked about in the poll: former Texas Rep. Paul, 49 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota , 41 percent; former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, 36 percent; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 33 percent; Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, 30 percent; former Utah Gov. and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 20 percent.

___

Polling Director Trevor Tompson and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the GOP-2012 poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the 2012 Republican presidential nomination was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It was based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults, including 378 Republicans. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of error for Republicans was plus or minus 6.9 percentage points.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

May
11

Bin Laden killing justified, Americans overwhelmingly say; Obama support boosted

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and ROBERT BURNS

Was the U.S. right to kill Osama bin Laden? Absolutely, and about time, Americans say.

A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows the nation supporting the raid with rare unanimity, and the glow from the operation is also boosting approval for President Barack Obama’s handling of terrorism and the war in Afghanistan.

Few events have sparked such soaring approval from the nation, and almost nothing has since George W. Bush’s handling of the U.S. campaign against terrorism in the months following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. Enthusiasm for the risky raid after its success has given Obama some of his highest marks since early in his presidency, and more than half of Americans now say he deserves to be re-elected.

At the same time, many say bin Laden’s death has increased the threat of terrorism against America.

The death, after nearly a decade-long hunt, of the man blamed for killing thousands of Americans also appeared to help boost Americans’ optimism in areas that would seem to have little connection to bin Laden, terrorism or national security.

More Americans — 45 percent, up from 35 percent in March — say the country is headed in the right direction. Still, about half — 52 percent — say things are heading the wrong way, reflecting the effect of more polarizing domestic issues such as the economy, federal budget deficit and health care overhaul.

Despite a sluggish recovery from the Great Recession, 52 percent of Americans now approve of Obama’s stewardship of the economy, giving him his best rating on that issue since the early days of his presidency.

Overall, Obama’s approval rating is up to 60 percent from 53 percent in March and the 47 percent low point following last fall’s congressional elections. It was 64 percent in May 2009, just months after he was sworn into office. Independents, who are likely to be a key voting bloc in the 2012 presidential election, caused the new uptick in support by sliding back to Obama.

The AP-GfK results were striking in that they found Obama with a higher approval rating than other recent polls that generally said he was in the low 50s. Polls often produce varying results because of differences in question wording and polling methodology. Also, during periods when public opinion about an issue is particularly volatile, and at times when the public is being presented with rapidly changing information, it is not uncommon to see wider variations across polls, even those conducted around the same time.

Some conservatives criticized the AP-GfK poll as heavy with responses from Democrats that skewed the results. AP-GfK polls use a consistent methodology that draws a random sample of the population independent of party identification. Such identification is not static and tends to fluctuate over time along with other political opinions. However, the change in party identification in the current AP-GfK current poll is not a statistically significant shift from the previous poll in March and could not by itself explain the poll findings

The poll reflected somewhat mixed feelings by Americans about the ramifications of the bin Laden raid and the general trend of terrorist threats.

Although nearly nine in 10 of those polled approved of killing the al-Qaida leader, 50 percent said it increased the threat of terrorist acts against the United States. Seventeen percent said it decreased the threat, while 31 percent said they believed it had no effect on terrorism.

On the other hand, the poll showed Americans are a little less worried about becoming victims of terrorism themselves. Thirty-three percent said they often or sometimes worry, down slightly from 37 percent last November and 40 percent in January 2010. Thirty-three percent said they are very or somewhat worried that they or a member of their family might become victims of a terrorist attack, about on par with 35 percent who said so two years ago.

Three-quarters said it took too long to find the al-Qaida leader, who fled from Afghanistan’s eastern mountains into Pakistan in late 2001 under pursuit by U.S. forces and apparently had holed up in a compound in a city not far from Islamabad for the past several years.

According to the U.S. government, bin Laden was shot to death by a team of Navy SEAL commandos that swept into his compound aboard helicopters May 2. Bin Laden did not have a weapon in his hands at the time he was shot but appeared to be reaching for one, U.S. officials say.

In the poll, conducted May 5-9, some 86 percent said they approved of the way the U.S. military and the CIA handled the raid, in which the Pakistan government was not informed until the SEALs had left Pakistani airspace. Just 6 percent disapproved. And 87 percent considered killing bin Laden during the raid to be justified, while nine percent said U.S. forces were not justified in killing the al-Qaida leader.

Asked whether the Obama administration should release a photo of bin Laden’s corpse, 64 percent said no; 34 percent felt a photo or video should be released. The day before the poll began, the Obama administration announced it would not release photos of bin Laden’s dead body. Nearly two-thirds in the poll said the government has released enough information about the raid.

In the aftermath of the bin Laden killing, some have argued that information obtained through harsh interrogations during the Bush administration was important in putting the U.S. on his trail. Six in ten in the poll said the use of torture against suspected terrorists in pursuit of information about terrorism is sometimes or often justified, up from about half in an AP-GfK poll two years ago.

Obama has called the elimination of bin Laden a major step forward in defeating al-Qaida, while cautioning that U.S. forces will continue pursuing other terrorist leaders and will keep a military presence in neighboring Afghanistan through 2014 to prevent that country from again becoming a haven for the organization. The president is approaching a decision on how many troops to withdraw in July as part of a planned four-year transition to Afghan government control of security across the country.

On the war itself, 59 percent said they oppose it and 37 percent support it — little changed from other recent polling.

But the new poll found a marked increase in public approval of Obama’s handling of the war. Sixty-five percent said they approve, compared with 55 percent in an AP-GfK survey in late March and 48 percent last November.

Eight in 10 said they like Obama’s plan to begin withdrawing U.S. forces in July and to end the U.S. combat role there by the end of 2014. Fifteen percent disapprove. Nearly six in 10 called that timetable about right, while 26 percent said it was too slow.

On the broader question of Obama’s handling of terrorism, 72 percent approved, compared to 61 percent in March. His gains were even more dramatic among those who said they strongly approve: 40 percent, compared to 25 percent in March.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

___

Robert Burns can be reached at http://twitter.com/robertburnsAP

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Osama bin Laden and terrorism was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from May 5-9. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 301 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Apr
20

Poll finds finances dictate college, career choices for students

BY CONNIE CASS, The Associated Press

No matter how many subjects they’re acing, most college students these days find economics a grind. Tricky financial calculations influence everything from what school they attend and what major they choose to how quickly they finish their degrees — or whether they graduate at all.

Money problems, not bad grades, are the reason cited by most college students who have considered dropping out, an Associated Press-Viacom poll finds.

Almost six in 10 students rely on loans to help with college costs, and nearly half who do say they’re uncomfortable with the debt. A majority of students at four-year colleges say they routinely feel at least a little worried about having enough money to make it through the week, according to the poll, conducted in partnership with Stanford University.

Scrimping has long been part of the college experience, of course, but tough times in the real world mean even tighter money on campus.

Recession-battered parents have less money to spend on their kids’ tuition. Jobs that used to be waiting upon graduation aren’t there anymore — consumed by the nation’s 8.8 percent unemployment rate. And college prices keep going up, as states struggle with budget deficits. Average tuition, room and board rose to about $16,000 at in-state public schools this year and $37,000 at private schools.

Most college students — 84 percent — need more than one source of cash to keep up, the poll of people ages 18 to 24 found.

About two-thirds say they work part-time or more to help pay for college. That’s supplemented by another popular source of funds: Mom and Dad. Six in 10 get help from parents. The same number rely on scholarships for part of the bill.

“For a while, I couldn’t find a job, and it was like, ‘How am I going to eat? And how am I going to get to school if I don’t have gas?’” said Allyson Bure, 20, a nursing student who works two part-time jobs, as a clerk at a Fashion Bug store and as a hotel housekeeper.

Like 57 percent of college students surveyed, Bure depends on student loans. Including debt she racked up at another school, she expects to owe about $52,000 by the time she finishes her associate’s degree at Trocaire College in East Aurora, N.Y. Then she hopes to transfer to a university.

Many students are uneasy about borrowing, with good reason. The U.S. Education Department says 7 percent of borrowers default within two years of beginning repayment on loans that can stretch for a decade or more. Average student loan debt tops $23,000.

Bure’s confident that she’ll earn enough to pay off her loans. She’s studying to become a nurse anesthetist, a job that can pay well over $100,000 per year. “I’ll be secure,” she predicts.

Despite the rising costs, 85 percent of students and recent grads say college is worth the time and money. In overwhelming numbers, they express satisfaction with the education they’ve received. And they have wide expectations for that education: Most say it’s very or extremely important that colleges broaden students’ knowledge and expand their minds, help them gain life skills, expose them to new experiences and train them for a career.

Nine out of 10 expect to find a job in their field. And for most, that’s the bottom line. Fifty-five percent say an education that focuses on success in the working world is more valuable than one focused on general knowledge and critical thinking.

With that pragmatic attitude, many treat education like a commodity to be shaped to fit their needs and budgets.

Most college students say cost was a big factor in determining where they applied and which school they ended up attending. A hefty majority — 86 percent — say it’s worthwhile to switch programs if you’re not getting exactly what you want from a school. A third said they added another major to increase their options after graduation.

Three-fourths say it’s more important to take the time to get exactly what they want from their education than to finish within the traditional four years, and a quarter who have finished took extra time.

On the other hand, lots of students are racing to the finish in order to save money.

About four in 10 college students hope to graduate in less than four years. To get a jump start, 58 percent of students took college-credit courses in high school. And about half earned credits at a community college before moving on to a more expensive bachelor’s degree program.

That’s what Falma Habbaba is doing. Once she’s finished two years at Cuyamaca College, she plans to transfer to nearby San Diego State University. Half of the college students surveyed, including Habbaba, hope to continue their educations beyond a four-year degree. In her case, it’s law school that beckons.

Habbaba, 18, has been relying on grants and a part-time job as a restaurant hostess to pay her way, and she worries about finding enough money to finish her schooling. But she’s optimistic that she’ll achieve career happiness. So are 94 percent of the college students surveyed.

For half of college students, money was a big factor in choosing what career to pursue. But more than one-fourth say that didn’t enter into their thinking at all.

“If you do what you love, you’ll be all right in life,” Habbaba said.

The AP-Viacom telephone survey of 1,104 adults ages 18 to 24 was conducted Feb. 18 to March 6 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Stanford University’s participation in this project was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson, AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

The Associated Press-Viacom Survey of Youth on Education by Stanford University was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 18 to March 6. It is based on landline and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,104 adults between 18 and 24 years old. Interviews were conducted with 603 respondents on landline telephones and 501 on cellular phones.

The sample included 253 African-Americans, 100 of whom were an oversample to have a sufficient number to analyze their responses as a group. Results were then weighted so that African-Americans reflected their correct proportion within the total sample.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

For the African-American sample, the portion from the core survey and the oversample were weighted to reflect the African-American 18- to 24-year-old population on Hispanic ethnicity, educational attainment, region and age within sex.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all 18- to 24-year-olds in the U.S. were polled.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://surveys.ap.org.

Apr
19

Poll shows students grade high school down, college up

Young people give mediocre marks to America’s high schools but put great faith in its colleges.

A new Associated Press-Viacom poll suggests most high schools are failing to give students a solid footing for the working world or strong guidance toward college, at a time when many students fear graduation means tumbling into an economic black hole.

Most of the 18- to 24-year-olds surveyed gave high schools low grades for things that would ease the way to college: A majority say their school wasn’t good at helping them choose a field of study, aiding them in finding the right college or vocational school or assisting them in coming up with ways to pay for more schooling.

Young people, however, remain enthusiastic about higher education. Two-thirds say students should aim for college, even if they aren’t sure what career to pursue. Almost as many say they want to earn at least a four-year degree.

But the majority of high school students probably won’t end up with a college degree. According to the Census Bureau, only about one-third of today’s 25- to 34-year-olds hold a bachelor’s or higher degree. Less than 10 percent get an associate’s degree.

Survey participants also give high schools low marks on exposing them to the latest technology in their field and helping them get work experience, according to the poll conducted in partnership with Stanford University.

Learning real-life job skills is important to students such as Mary Margaret Rice, 18, who attends a regional vocational high school in Wakefield, Mass. “I’m getting training to weld,” she said.

Rice is interested in joining the military, but not in more schooling after graduation. “Money is a reason,” she said, “but the main reason is I can’t really focus on classwork and homework.”

Overall, only four in 10 young people voice strong satisfaction with their high school education. About as many are “somewhat satisfied.” And almost a fifth are unsatisfied — which is twice as many as those who expressed unhappiness with college.

Lovina Dill said she wishes the two high schools she attended in California taught her how to deal with the ups and downs of the real world. She said she was briefly homeless when she was laid off and unable to find a job using her certification in massage therapy.

Dill, now 21, self-employed and living with her father in Arcadia, La., thinks high schools should offer juniors and seniors workshops on how to get a job, how to build a career and the many educational options besides a four-year degree.

The one category where young people rated high schools best was preparing them for further education: 56 percent say their school did a good or excellent job. Those who went on to college or trade school gave their high schools better marks than those who didn’t.

The bulk of college students — six in 10 — declare themselves either “very” or “extremely” pleased with their higher education.

Most say a career-focused college education is a high priority, and students think their schools are providing it. A strong majority of students and recent grads give their college high marks for preparing them for the workforce, helping them choose a field of study, exposing them to the latest technology and helping them get internships.

Six in 10 even say their college was “excellent” or “good” at helping them find money to pay for their education.

Young adults’ opinions are mixed on whether the nation’s education system understands their goals and values. Almost half of college attendees feel that the schools “get” them. That’s significantly more than among those whose education stopped at high school; just three in 10 say the school system could identify with them.

Young people credit their own ambition and abilities most for their progress in life, followed by parents, family and friends. Beyond that circle, teachers are the heroes, with four in 10 students saying high school teachers helped a lot. College teachers earn similar praise.

High school and college counselors are a step behind. Most students give them some credit, but less than one-fourth say their counselors were a lot of help, and about three in 10 think they didn’t help at all.

Minority students were more likely than white students to say their high school counselors helped them, and they also gave their high schools better ratings for helping find money for college.

Young adults overall see brighter days ahead for education. About half think kids entering elementary school today will get a better education than they did, more than double the number who predict schools will get worse.

Stanford University’s participation in this project was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AP writer Stacy A. Anderson, AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

For the African-American sample, the portion from the core survey and the oversample were weighted to reflect the African American 18- to 24-year-old population on Hispanic ethnicity, educational attainment, region and age within sex.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://surveys.ap.org.

BY CONNIE CASS, The Associated Press

Apr
19

Poll shows social networks used for study, friendships

BY STACY A. ANDERSON, The Associated Press

Young people use social media websites such as Facebook and Twitter to do more than simply stay in touch with their friends; they’re also using them as a means to make school and career connections, according to an Associated Press-Viacom poll.

Four out of five high school and college students say websites are an excellent or good way to interact with fellow students, and a bit fewer — about seven in 10 — say they’re equally good for getting information on class assignments or school events, or to form study groups and collaborate with peers. Just over half say the Internet is useful to research teacher ratings.

Among students who are employed, 62 percent say social networking is helpful in interactions with co-workers.

Even more, about nine in 10, say they see social networking as a tool to keep in touch with friends and family. And 74 percent say it’s a good way to distract themselves.

When it comes to the impact of various media on their education, students rank the Internet on top, with 53 percent saying it has a “big effect.” Printed books followed closely at 51 percent. Television lagged at 24 percent, with newspapers, radio, movies and magazines ranking farther down.

Students said laptop computers were the top item they use in the classroom for note-taking, followed by smart phones, cameras, audio recorders, tablet computers and video cameras.

Apr
18

Poll shows students optimistic despite money doubts

BY CONNIE CASS, The Associated Press

For young people who came of age in the recession, the American dream of life getting better for each new generation feels like a myth.

A majority expect to have a harder time buying a house and saving for retirement than their parents did. More than 4 in 10 predict it will be tougher to raise a family and afford the lifestyle they want, according to an Associated Press-Viacom poll of Americans ages 18 to 24.

Only about a fourth expect things to be easier for them than the previous generation — a cherished goal of many hardworking parents.

“I just don’t really see myself being able to obtain the kind of money my parents could when they were my age,” said Mark McNally, 23, who earned a history degree from the University of Minnesota a year ago and now works part-time in a liquor store.

San Francisco State University nursing student Ashley Yates, 23, is confident she’ll build a career in health care but expects money to be tighter in her lifetime. “Social Security may not even exist when I’m older,” Yates said. “Health insurance is going up. Everything just costs more.”

Sounds like a bummer, right? Yet most young adults are shrugging it off. Despite financial disappointments, they overwhelmingly say they’re happy with their lives, much more so than older folks in similar surveys.

Youthful optimism — with perhaps a touch of naivete — lives on. A whopping 90 percent expect to find careers that will bring them happiness, if not wealth.

Linka Preus, who’s taking a year off her career track to work in an Ithaca, N.Y., bagel bakery, figures every generation has its own struggles, and bad economies eventually improve.

“Even if it never gets better permanently, we’ll adjust to whatever it is,” said Preus, 22, a linguistics and cognitive science grad from Cornell University who plans to pursue her passion for science in graduate school.

McNally, the history major, said he’s enjoying life as a part-time clerk in the Minneapolis suburb of Edina before he gets tied down in a research or analyst job.

“I’ll be able to find one in the future, I’m sure of it,” McNally said. “I’ll find one or go back to school.”

High unemployment has left lots of young lives in limbo. Among students who don’t plan to go to work right after college, three-fourths say the limited number of open jobs in their field was important to their decision. Riding out the tough times in grad school is a popular choice for those with the means.

But for some without such options, optimism is hard to muster.

Nathan Watkins, out of work in rural Epworth, Ga., has little job experience, no car and no access to public transportation.

“I’m literally stuck and there’s nothing I can do about it. At least I feel that way,” said Watkins, 23, a high school graduate who lives with his mother and tries to compensate her by doing chores.

He’s seeking work of any type. “Honestly, at this point, I wouldn’t care. In this economy, you take what you can get.”

Young people today are more pessimistic about their economic futures than young adults in a similar poll in April 2007, eight months before the recession began. And most say they cannot afford the things they want or are struggling at least a little to make their money last through each week. About half are dependent on family members for financial support.

Seventy-five percent say the economy is in poor shape, on par with older people surveyed in a recent AP-GfK poll.

And they’re not just worried about themselves; 7 out of 10 fret about their parents’ finances. About 20 percent saw a parent laid off during the past year and a half, according to the AP-Viacom study, conducted in partnership with Stanford University.

Money troubles are steering the course of young lives. A majority say finances were a key factor in deciding whether to continue their educations past high school and, if they did, which college to attend, and what kind of career to seek.

Lucas Ward couldn’t keep up with the tuition in community college, despite working three jobs at once — at a gas station, a hotel and a restaurant in scenic and touristy Hood River, Ore.

With youthful pluck, he found opportunity elsewhere.

Ward fell into a job doing a bit of everything for a small outdoor clothing company, and the business took off. The housing collapse that busted so many baby boomers made prices suddenly affordable, so Ward bought a home. At 23, he’s about to invest in a second house and is building his own clothing company.

“A lot of stuff in the news is telling everyone that they can’t, that the economy is crumbling and there’s no room for anyone to do anything,” Ward said. “But I’m watching that being disproven every day.”

The AP-Viacom telephone survey of 1,104 adults was conducted Feb. 18 through March 6 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Stanford University’s participation in this project was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AP writer Stacy A. Anderson, AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

The Associated Press-Viacom Survey of Youth on Education Poll by Stanford University was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Feb. 18 to March 6. It is based on landline and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,104 adults ages 18 to 24 . This included 253 African-Americans, 100 of which was an oversample. Interviews were conducted with 603 respondents on landline telephones and 501 on cell phones.

Stanford University’s participation was made possible by a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Apr
13

Most Americans say what they pay in taxes is fair, though fewer expecting refunds

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER, Associated Press

For all the complaining this time of year, most Americans actually think the taxes they pay are fair.

Not that they’re cheering. Fewer people expect refunds this year than in previous years, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. But as Monday’s filing deadline approaches, the poll shows that 54 percent believe their tax bills are either somewhat fair or very fair, compared with 46 percent who say they are unfair.

Should taxes be raised to eat into huge federal deficits? Among the public, 62 percent say they favor cutting government services to sop up the red ink. Just 29 percent say raise taxes.

That’s sure to be a major issue as Congress takes up budget legislation for next year and the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way in earnest. On Wednesday, President Barack Obama revived his proposal to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans to help reduce government borrowing.

In the poll, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to think their tax bills were fair. Liberals and moderates were more likely to think so than conservatives. Women more likely than men. Most whites thought their tax bills were fair; most non-whites didn’t.

The young and the old — adults under 30 and seniors 65 and above — were much more likely to say their taxes were fair than those in their prime earning years. Surprisingly, there was little difference in the perception of fairness across income levels.

But just because people say they pay a fair amount doesn’t mean that they think others do.

Sandra Jennings, a retired teacher in South Bend, Ind., said her federal taxes are fair, but she thinks rich people get off too easily.

Rich people, she said in an interview, “get all these loopholes. The middle class does not have loopholes.”

Mari Lemelson of Edison, N.J., said, “I have a big problem with the millionaires, at least what I understand to be the millionaires’ tax breaks.”

Jim Martel, an electrician from Weymouth, Mass., said his tax bill is already unfair, but he would be willing to pay more if he thought the money would be spent wisely. He’s not optimistic.

“If I thought people in office had the right thing in mind and they were doing the right thing with the money instead of blowing it and wasting it and funding these stupid projects that are totally ridiculous, I wouldn’t have a problem with it,” Martel said. “But they don’t, so that’s what bothers me.”

Monday is the filing deadline for federal tax returns — three days later than usual because a local holiday is being observed in the nation’s capital on Friday, the traditional deadline.

Federal tax receipts are projected to hit their lowest level in 60 years when measured as a share of the overall economy. Tax receipts dipped during the recession and have stayed low in part because Congress has extended Bush-era tax cuts at every income level, leaving federal rates unchanged for much of the past decade.

Residents in many states, however, have faced higher taxes because — unlike the federal government — states, school districts and municipalities must balance their budgets each year.

The share of the public believing their tax bills were fair was nearly identical to an AP poll taken in 2007, even though fewer people than in the past said they expect to get refunds this year. Fifty-one percent of those polled said they expected refunds this year, down from 57 percent in 2009 and 66 percent in 2007.

Many people who don’t expect refunds could be in for a pleasant surprise.

Through March 25, about 87 percent of the individual returns processed by the Internal Revenue Service qualified for refunds. That’s about the same rate through the same period as last year.

Ultimately, about 85 percent of individual returns qualified for refunds last year, totaling about $360 billion. The refunds averaged $3,000, about the same amount as so far this year.

Economists say tax refunds typically provide a boost to the economy each spring. This year, however, more people say they plan to save, invest or use their refunds to pay down debts.

Only 27 percent of the people surveyed said they plan to simply spend their tax refund, down from 38 percent in 2009.

Forty-five percent said they would save or invest their refunds, compared with 35 percent in 2009. Forty-four percent said they would pay down debt, compared with 37 percent in 2009.

“A lot of people got caught with too much debt going into this recession and may well take this as an opportunity to reduce their debt level rather than go out and rent that summer house,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “When they’re scared, they are more likely to save it than if they are happy and feel like the good times will continue forever.”

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

___

AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the AP-GfK poll on taxes was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on taxes was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28. It is based on landline and cellular telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Apr
12

Support for Obama’s health law at new lows; Medicare chief blasts GOP on vouchers

By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR, Associated Press

Amid a budget debate that will affect the health care of virtually every family, a new poll finds support for President Barack Obama’s overhaul at its lowest level since passage last year.

But in a ringing defense of Obama’s policies, Medicare chief Donald Berwick pleaded Tuesday for more time on the health care law, and branded a leading Republican plan “unfair and harmful” and “a form of withholding care.”

The Associated Press-GfK poll showed that support for Obama’s expansion of health insurance coverage has slipped to 35 percent, while opposition stands at 45 percent and another 17 percent are neutral. That nearly ties the previous low in September 2009, when after a summer of heated town hall meetings dominated by critics, only 34 percent supported Obama’s approach.

The worry this time appears to be federal budget deficits driven by unmanageable health care costs. Among seniors, whose views are critical in any debate over health care, support for the law dipped below 30 percent for the first time in AP-GfK polling.

Obama is scheduled to deliver a major speech Wednesday that will lay out his path for reducing deficits. While administration officials have acknowledged the need for more savings from Medicare and Medicaid, congressional Republicans have offered a bold alternative to tackle health care costs.

House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., is proposing to convert Medicare into a “premium support” program. Instead of traditional Medicare, people now 54 and younger would get a fixed payment, or voucher, from the government to buy private health insurance when they retire. Medicaid, which serves low-income people, would be turned over to the states as a block grant program. Taken together, the programs serve about 100 million Americans.

Berwick, who oversees Medicare and Medicaid as well as the rollout of the new health care law, told Associated Press reporters and editors Tuesday that the Republican approach would set back efforts to improve quality and squeeze waste.

It would be like “giving people a sum of money and saying, ‘Good luck, God bless you,’” Berwick said during an hour-long interview. “That’s not about improving care. That’s about shifting burdens.”

Ryan says his plan will save Medicare from bankruptcy, and market competition will bring down costs without compromising quality.

A pediatrician, Berwick is well-known in the medical community as an advocate for better quality. But in Washington, he has become one of the most controversial administration figures. His statements as an academic praising the British health care system brought him under suspicion from Republicans, who accused him of favoring rationing. Despite his denials, Berwick’s confirmation has been blocked in the Senate, and he may have to leave the job by the end of this year.

The political uncertainty didn’t stop him from a full defense of the new health care law. He lamented that the administration has not been able to convince the public that the complex legislation will improve quality and reduce costs over time.

They are in a “psychological trap, where nothing looks good,” he said. “The public’s smart. They’re going to wait for the results before they actually change their minds.”

If anything, Berwick said, he wished “the tempo of the law were faster,” so that Americans could experience the benefits of coverage for virtually all residents and payment changes to reward doctors and hospitals for quality care, not the volume of tests and procedures.

“We are not going to take your care away. We are going to make it better,” Berwick said. “The public will notice as we make health care better, but that takes time.”

On Tuesday, the Obama administration began a national program to improve safety in hospitals, which are rife with infections and opportunities for medical mistakes.

The new Partnership for Patients will help hospitals adopt proven strategies to reduce those problems dramatically, with the goal of preventing nearly 2 million patient injuries and saving more than 60,000 lives over the next three years. If it works, it could save Medicare $10 billion over that period.

The poll showed the administration’s message isn’t getting through, particularly with seniors.

Fifty-nine percent of seniors oppose the new health care law, while only 29 percent support it. Disapproval of Obama’s handling of health care among seniors has ticked upward to 62 percent, while Republicans are more trusted than Democrats to handle the issue, by a 51 percent to 36 percent margin.

By contrast, among adults of all ages, Obama’s approval rating on health care stands at 52 percent, and 53 percent say they trust Democrats to do a better job.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

___

Deputy polling director Jennifer Agiesta and Associated Press writer Lauran Neergaard contributed to this report.

___

Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on health care was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from March 24-28. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cell phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com<http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/> .

Apr
08

Few in new poll confident in US response to possible nuke crisis, but most see it as unlikely

By MATTHEW DALY, Associated Press

Most Americans doubt the U.S. government is prepared to respond to a nuclear emergency like the one in Japan, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows. But it also shows few Americans believe such an emergency would occur.

Nevertheless, the disaster has turned more Americans against new nuclear power plants. The poll found that 60 percent of Americans oppose building more nuclear power plants. That’s up from 48 percent who opposed it in an AP-Stanford University Poll in November 2009.

The Associated Press-GfK poll comes as Japan continues to struggle with a nuclear crisis caused by a March 11 earthquake and tsunami. The crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant has leaked radiation into the environment and radioactive water gushed into the Pacific Ocean. Japan was rattled by a strong aftershock and tsunami warning Thursday, but officials reported no immediate sign of new problems.

The poll finds that about a fourth of those surveyed were highly confident that the U.S. government is prepared to handle a nuclear emergency, while almost three-fourths were only somewhat or not confident.

But many people doubt such an emergency will happen in this country.

About three in 10 think such an emergency is extremely or very likely, compared with seven in 10 who think it is only somewhat or not likely. Among people who think a disaster is highly likely, almost eight in 10 lack confidence the government would be ready.

Even among those think it’s not too likely or not at all likely to happen, almost two-thirds still lacked confidence the government would be ready.

Nancy Hall of Long Beach, Calif., said the Japanese crisis has not soured her on nuclear power.

“Well, despite the disaster in Japan, I think that nuclear power still has a lot of advantages over fossil fuels, ” she said, noting that nuclear energy, unlike oil, does not funnel money to “Middle East dictators” and is not as polluting as coal-fired power plants.

“You have to keep in mind that gas and coal are constantly polluting, day in and day out, and we don’t even think about it,” she said.

Hall, 36, a linguistics professor, lives within a four-hour drive of two nuclear plants but said she is not too worried about either one.

“I do hope the government is looking carefully at how to safeguard them,” she said. “But truthfully, nuclear power is not at the top of my list of worries.” Of more immediate concern: The building where she works is not earthquake-proof.

The poll indicates that nearly one in four Americans lives within 50 miles of a nuclear power reactor. Those who reported living within 50 miles of a nuclear plant were not significantly more or less likely to have confidence in the government’s ability to handle a nuclear disaster.

Those who live close to nuclear power plants were less likely to be strong opponents of building more nuclear power plants than those who live farther away. A total of four in 10 of those who live more than 50 miles from a plant strongly oppose building new ones, compared with three in 10 who say they live within 50 miles of a plant.

U.S. government regulators are reviewing safety at the nation’s 104 nuclear reactors in the wake of the Japanese crisis. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission says it will look at the plants’ ability to protect against natural disasters and terrorist attacks, respond to complete power blackouts and cope with accidents involving spent fuel, among other issues.

The NRC says U.S. nuclear plants continue to operate safely.

Still, Kelli Hughes of Brookhaven, N.Y., worries about nuclear power, calling it a toxic menace. Hughes, 33, owns an online business and lives less than 80 miles from nuclear plants in New York and Connecticut. She said she strongly opposes construction or expansion of nuclear plants.

“We have to think about what it’s going to do to the environment when we’re done with it,” she said, referring to nuclear waste. “Look what’s happening in Japan now,” she added. Radioactive waste “is leaking and it’s toxic.”

Once land is tainted by nuclear waste, “you can’t use it,” Hughes said. “It kills everything — the land, the air, the water around it.”

Damian Padua of Chicopee, Mass., said he is skeptical that renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power can generate the electricity the country needs. Padua, 32, a printer, said the U.S. government and citizens alike are likely to be overwhelmed in the event of a nuclear disaster.

But after the initial shock, he said he is confident authorities and the public would rally.

“I think we have the necessary resources to help everyone,” he said. “I think we can do a better job than the way it’s going in Japan actually.”

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on nuclear power was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellphones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Apr
05

Obliquely or overtly, gas is underlying issue linking Libya, Japan, Wall Street, angry America

By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press

Quick: What do these things have in common? Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Wall Street volatility. A cranky, even angry American populace.

Answer: They all have something to do with gasoline. No matter what happens in the world today, just about everything points back to fuel and the tricky politics that emerge when prices spike.

Is it any wonder, then, that a recent Associated Press-GfK poll shows a correlation between the country’s more pessimistic outlook and rising gas prices.

The issue also has taken on greater importance to Americans. They rank it above subjects including Iraq, Afghanistan, immigration, terrorism and taxes. Last fall, 54 percent called gas prices a highly important issue to them personally, but 77 percent said that in the latest poll.

Many don’t expect relief from soaring gas costs anytime soon: Two-thirds say they expect the higher prices will cause financial hardship for them or their families in the next six months. That group includes more than a third who say gas cost spikes will cause serious financial hardship. And that is on top of a still-poor economy.

Most are changing the way they live. Three-fourths are cutting back on other expenses, two-thirds are driving less, half plan to vacation closer to home, and almost as many have thought seriously about buying a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Most also are bypassing the most convenient gas station to bargain shop for the lowest prices.

GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications conducted the poll from March 24-28. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

The underlying links between current events aren’t lost on President Barack Obama, and for good reason. Like death and taxes, this cycle is a certainty: Prices at the pump rise, the public’s mood falls and the president gets punished.

Listen to him when he pressed recently for reducing the nation’s oil imports by one-third by 2025.

“Obviously, the situation in the Middle East implicates our energy security. The situation in Japan leads us to ask questions about our energy sources. In an economy that relies so heavily on oil, rising prices at the pump affect everybody,” Obama said. “Businesses see rising prices at the pump hurt their bottom line. Families feel the pinch when they fill up their tank. And for Americans that are already struggling to get by, a hike in gas prices really makes their lives that much harder. It hurts.”

Sure, that’s true. But there’s also much more to it. In an era in which globalization is a given, gas prices are the most obvious, most closely felt connection between the daily lives of Americans and the larger world.

“Whenever gasoline prices spike, there is enormous political consternation because it’s a highly invasive issue,” said Pietro Nivola, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies energy policy and American politics.

Has there been a time in modern history when that’s been more apparent than the past few weeks?

Look at what’s happened.

—Populist uprisings swept across oil-rich North Africa, from Tunisia to Egypt and now to Libya, where rebels are in a standoff with Gadhafi that has shut down much of the country’s 1.6 million barrels a day of crude exports. Energy traders fear unrest will spread further across the region and disrupt shipments from bigger producers like Saudi Arabia and Iran. That could limit supply when demand is high, boosting costs.

—An earthquake and tsunami in Japan last month triggered a nuclear emergency, with the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant leaking radiation. The reactor’s near meltdown has renewed debate in the United States over nuclear fuel and raised questions about the vulnerability of some U.S. plants.

—Oil surged to a 30-month high — more than $100 a barrel — as investors worried that the unrest in Libya and elsewhere would keep crude exports from oil-producing nations off the market longer than expected. On Wall Street, key indexes fluctuated as oil prices soared.

—Consumer confidence dropped at a troublesome time, just as the post-recession economy was struggling to recover. Gas costs were the reason. Experts say if people are forced to pay more for gasoline, they’re likely not to spend elsewhere and that could further slow already sluggish economic growth.

And none of that even takes into account last year’s Gulf Coast oil spill.

Even if there’s no proven cause and effect between the latest turn of events, there’s a commonality that’s not lost on experts and consumers alike.

“It’s a combination of trends and luck that have put energy repeatedly at the forefront,” said Michael Levi, director of the program on energy security and climate change at the Council on Foreign Relations. “We always are going to be dealing with energy in some form or another because it’s the lifeblood of society.”

The poll also indicated a disconnect between expectations and reality. Consumers on average said $2.36 per gallon was a fair price for gas, but the national average was $3.65 during the week the survey was taken.

Albert Mercado, a restaurant employee from Wallingford, Pa., is among those feeling more than just a pinch.

“When I swipe my card at the gas pump, it stops at $75 and I’m nowhere near full,” says the owner of a 2004 Ford Explorer, who lives outside Philadelphia. He adds: “I have not been driving as much.” He now limits his travels to and from work, his son’s day care and their home. He saves rather than spends. He hasn’t visited his parents, who live a three-hour drive away in New York, for a long time.

And Mercado, 44, has little hope that costs will fall anytime soon. After all, he says, he once worked at a gas station and knows how the price game is played. “Something’s got to change. I doubt it will,” he said.

So far, Obama’s overall political standing isn’t suffering; it’s held steady for months at about 50 percent. Even so, his job performance rating on handling the issue of gas prices is at just 36 percent, his lowest rating on any issue tracked in the poll.

“What’s different this time is the U.S. economy is still fragile,” Nivola said. “If we had a sustained gasoline hike, it would be like imposing a substantial tax on the economy at a very inopportune moment.”

Eventually, consumers will look for someone to fault if gas prices remain high. Obama’s the likely target, and Republicans are trying to hasten the blame game.

“His war on domestic oil and gas exploration and production has caused us pain at the pump, endangered our already sluggish economic recovery, and threatened our national security,” said Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate who is considering a White House run of her own. “The good news is there is nothing wrong with America’s energy policy that another good old-fashioned election can’t solve. 2012 is just around the corner.”

History, however, offers no certainty that a different president would dramatically change how Americans deal with energy.

For decades, a national energy policy has proven elusive because Republicans and Democrats sharply differ over how to make America closer to energy independent. Progress has been impeded by not-in-my-backyard fights over nuclear plants and wind farms, battles over drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and nuclear waste disposal at Yucca Mountain, and election-year sloganeering.

The same cycle has persisted. Gas prices rise, Americans complain and politicians raise alarms.

Consider the words that came out of one president’s mouth: “This country needs to regain its independence from foreign sources of energy, and the sooner the better.” That was Republican Gerald Ford — in 1975.

Nearly four decades later, Obama said: “As long as our economy depends on foreign oil, we’ll always be subject to price spikes.”

He’s probably not the last president who will give voice to that notion, given the complexities of the issue. As Levi puts it: “The nature of energy is that it matters because it gets entangled with so many other things. But those other entanglements are what make it precisely so difficult to deal with.”

___

EDITOR’S NOTE — Liz Sidoti has covered national politics for The Associated Press since 2003.

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By The Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on gas prices was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Mar
30

Lawmakers press Obama administration for answers on US mission in Libya

By DONNA CASSATA

President Barack Obama is under pressure from Congress to spell out an exit strategy for the U.S. military in Libya and provide a clear plan to end Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s 42-year rule as the American public remains fiercely divided over the war.

Obama delivered a full-throated defense of his decision to deploy military forces to prevent a slaughter of Libyan civilians in his speech Monday and in the shadow of the United Nations on Tuesday. The president said the nation’s conscience and its common interests “compel us to act” to protect civilian lives in Libya.

“We’ve learned from bitter experience — from the wars that were not prevented, the innocent lives that were not saved — is that all that’s necessary for evil to triumph is that good people and responsible nations stand by and do nothing,” the president said at the dedication of the Ronald H. Brown mission at the U.N.

In a series of network interviews, Obama insisted that the “noose is tightening” around Gadhafi although forces loyal to the longtime leader pounded the rebels with tanks and rockets Wednesday, forcing them to retreat. The president did not rule out arming the rebels, saying the U.S. and its partners could get weapons into Libya and all options were being considered.

In the course of his statements, however, Obama created more questions among lawmakers when he said ousting Gadhafi militarily would be a mistake and a diplomatic approach would be a better option.

“We hope Gadhafi leaves. I just don’t think that that is a strategy,” House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said Tuesday. “When you listen to what’s going on and all the words, it is really nothing more than hope. So if Gadhafi doesn’t leave, how long will NATO be there to enforce the no-fly zone?”

On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen are certain to face tough questions when they brief members of the House and Senate in closed-door, back-to-back sessions.

Their Capitol Hill appearance comes as a new Associated Press-GfK poll found the country split on U.S. involvement in military actions in Libya, with 48 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving.

About three-quarters say it’s somewhat likely that U.S. forces will be involved in Libya for the long term. Fifty-five percent say they would favor the United States increasing its military action to remove Gadhafi from power, although only 13 percent favor U.S. ground troops, a step Obama has said he would not take.

The poll was conducted in the days leading up to the president’s speech.

Reflecting the nation’s divisions, several lawmakers praised Obama’s actions while others raised a series of looming questions about the U.S. mission.

Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Obama’s 2008 rival for the presidency, said he appreciated the president’s explanation of “why this intervention was both right and necessary, especially in light of the unprecedented democratic awakening that is now sweeping the broader Middle East.”

McCain said Obama deserves strong bipartisan support in Congress and in the country on Libya.

But Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon, R-Calif., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said Obama needs to further refine U.S. purposes.

“I still did not hear a clearly defined goal for how long military operations will last in Libya,” McKeon said. “Utilizing U.S. warriors to protect civilians from a brutal dictator is a noble cause, but asking them to maintain a stalemate while we hold out hope that Gadhafi will voluntarily leave his country raises serious questions about the duration of the mission.”

Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio sought congressional support Tuesday for his effort to cut off funds for the operation.

Under questioning by Congress, NATO’s top commander, U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis, said officials had seen “flickers” of possible al-Qaida and Hezbollah involvement with the rebel forces. But Stavridis said there was no evidence of significant numbers within the political opposition group’s leadership.

“The intelligence that I’m receiving at this point makes me feel that the leadership that I’m seeing are responsible men and women who are struggling against Colonel Gadhafi,” Stavridis told a Senate panel. “We have seen flickers in the intelligence of potential al-Qaida, Hezbollah. … At this point, I don’t have detail sufficient to say that there’s a significant al-Qaida presence or any other terrorist presence in and among these folks.”

Obama, in an interview with CBS News, said most of the opposition leaders are professionals such as lawyers and doctors, but “that doesn’t mean that all the people — among all the people who opposed Gadhafi — there might not be elements that are unfriendly to the United States and our interests.”

Clinton met in London with Mahmoud Jibril, a representative of the Libyan political opposition. The Obama administration is not ruling out a political solution in Libya that could include Gadhafi leaving the country, she said, but she acknowledged there is no timeline.

In the military campaign, a U.S. Navy ship fired 22 Tomahawk cruise missiles at weapon storage sites around Tripoli on Tuesday, according to a U.S. defense official. It was the highest number of Tomahawks fired in several days, even as the Navy has reduced the number of missile-firing ships and submarines off the coast.

The Libyan missiles in the storage sites targeted by the U.S. onslaught could have been used by pro-Gadhafi forces defending Tripoli, should heavy combat spread to the capital, which remains under Gadhafi’s control. The rebels are outmatched in training, equipment and other measures of military might by Gadhafi’s remaining forces, and would be hard-pressed to mount a full-scale battle for Tripoli now.

As for the overall international campaign against Gadhafi, Stavridis said he expected a three-star Canadian general to assume full NATO command of the operation by Thursday. Meanwhile, the Pentagon put the price tag for the war thus far at $550 million.

____

Associated Press writers Robert Burns and Bradley Klapper contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the situation in Libya was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28, 2011. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Mar
30

Americans turn more pessimistic on economy but aren’t taking it out on Obama

By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer

For all the talk of recovery, Americans are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy as soaring gas costs strain already-tight budgets. So far, people aren’t taking it out on President Barack Obama, a new Associated Press-GfK poll shows.

Even so, the survey highlights a central challenge Obama will face in his campaign for re-election. The president will have to convince a lot of voters who are still feeling financial hardship that things are getting better.

Obama’s approval ratings have held steady at around 50 percent over the past month. But the disconnect between negative perceptions of the economy and signs that a rebound are under way could provide an opening for Republicans at the outset of the 2012 campaign.

In the survey, just a sliver of Americans — 15 percent — said they believed the economy had improved over the past month, compared with 30 percent who had thought that in January. Only a third were optimistic of better times ahead for the country, down from about half earlier this year. And 28 percent thought the economy would get worse, the largest of slice of people who have expressed that sentiment since the question was first asked in December 2009.

“It’s in a poor state,” said Billy Shirley, 74, a Democrat from Commerce, Ga. “Everything’s going to the bad. Everyone’s spending more on gas, food, everything. The prices on everything are going up, and that’s hurting the nation.”

Recent economic indicators paint a more positive picture: The unemployment rate, though still high at 8.9 percent, has been declining, and consumer spending and personal income were both up last month. The gross domestic product was growing at an annual rate of 3.1 percent as last year ended.

Americans are acutely focused on their financial well-being, even as turmoil in the Middle East commands international attention. And the foreign unrest is directly affecting them by boosting oil prices. More Americans — 77 percent, up from 54 percent last fall — now say gas prices are highly important to them.

Obama’s job-performance ratings haven’t suffered as people’s attitudes about the economy have shifted over the past month.

Half still approve of how he’s doing his job, and half say he deserves to be re-elected. His rating on handling the economy was unchanged: 47 percent approved. In fact, twice as many people said Obama “understands the important issues the country will need to focus on during the next two years” as said that about Republicans in Congress.

That’s not to say that Obama is escaping responsibility for the economic situation.

Annale Iltis, 26, of Sarasota, Fla., faults big business, the federal government and, to a lesser extent, the president.

“I do a bit,” she said, “but at the same time he has good ideas. He just doesn’t have the backers in the House and the Senate to get them done.” The self-described independent voter, who supported Obama in 2008 and says she would do so next year, is concerned that deep budget cuts that Congress is considering will hurt the fragile economic recovery.

“It seems stable now but I fear it’s going to go downhill quickly,” she said.

Henry Kugeler, 49, of Chicago, likened the situation to the fable about the crawling tortoise that wins the race against the speedy hare, saying: “Right now, the country is the tortoise. I don’t think the economy is getting worse. The recovery that’s happening is real, but it’s incredibly slow.”

The Democrat doesn’t blame Obama or other politicians, saying: “They haven’t helped but I don’t know that they’ve hurt.”

Obama inherited an economy in recession. Republicans angling for the chance to challenge him next fall have been blaming him for the slow recovery and arguing they could do better. Presidential advisers are hopeful that the positive economic trends continue, giving Obama an opportunity to make the case for keeping him in office rather than risk an economic backslide.

As the slow-to-start GOP nomination fight starts in earnest this spring, the poll shows that candidates clearly have work to do.

More than or nearly half of Republicans surveyed say they don’t know enough about the following potential contenders to even express an opinion about them: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Roughly two-thirds of Republicans expressed favorable views of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney got slightly lower marks.

Even though many of the candidates aren’t well-known, about half of Republicans say they are satisfied with their choices.

The poll comes just as Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill wrestle over the federal budget, and there could be a partial government shutdown without further action by Congress.

The Republican-controlled House has approved some $60 billion in spending cuts. The Democratic Senate is looking at $33 billion. Without agreement, some Republicans say they won’t approve funding to keep the government operating.

The issue of federal spending isn’t just something lawmakers talk about. It’s clearly weighing on the public.

Roughly half in the survey said they expected enormous federal budget deficits to cause a major economic crisis for the country for the next decade, and most said they worry that mounting federal debt will hamper the financial future of their children and grandchildren.

In the shorter term, people in the poll view everyone negatively when it comes to handling the deficit, but lawmakers get worse marks than the president. Only about a third of those surveyed approve of how Republicans and Democrats are dealing with the issue, while 41 percent approve of Obama on the matter.

People also are evenly divided on which party would best handle the deficit.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted March 24-28 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Associated Press Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

How the poll was conducted

By the Associated Press

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Obama and the economy was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Mar. 24-28, 2011. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

Jan
24

Jobs, debt and, yes, health care still, top an American to-do list on eve of Obama speech

By CALVIN WOODWARD, Associated Press

Health care is Shannon Taylor’s “big, big hot button” and no wonder. She is a nurse in Tennessee who examines hospital bills for a health insurance company, and a mother who saw President Barack Obama’s health care law come just in time for her family.

In the State of the Union speech Tuesday night, she will be looking for Obama to stand firm against Republicans who want to take the law apart. Health insurance for her daughter, who has lifetime medical problems, could hang in the balance.

Many other Americans feel a personal stake in what Obama will say Tuesday and do later _ and what Republicans do in response. The hunger for jobs and economic growth stood out in interviews with more than 1,000 people, part of an Associated Press-GfK poll asking Americans what one thing they most want the government to accomplish this year.

It is apparent, too, that health care is still very much on people’s minds, that spending has reached frightening proportions for many and that a notable share of Americans wants nothing more than to see partisan bickering end.

In upstate New York, Donald Dixon puts his faith in Republicans to restrain Democratic spending and bring down a debt that he believes makes every economic problem worse _ and robs his grandsons, each with a master’s degree, of good jobs.

It’s enough to make the retired Baptist preacher invoke the fire and brimstone rhetoric of the pulpit, even as he renders his judgment in a cheerful tone.

Obama “tells us we are going in the right direction,” Dixon says, “which to me is over the precipice of hell.”

It falls upon presidents to describe the state of the union when much of that union is in the depths of winter’s gloom.

The polling revealed a season of discontent; also some stirrings of hope. More than half disapproved of Obama’s handling of the economy and just more than one-third said it has improved in his first two years. Still, he’s considered likable, strong and in touch.

Altogether, 38 percent cited the economy or an economic issue when asked what they would most like to see the government accomplish this year. Fully 31 percent said health care is the No. 1 issue to tackle _ regardless of whether they favor or oppose the law _ and 21 percent cited the budget. Among economic concerns, jobs topped the list.

¶ Dixon believes the debt already weighs on job creation and economic growth and it will take a decade to turn that around. The Republicans, he says, are off to a good start on that front.

¶ His grandsons have master’s degrees in education and business, and neither is able to get a job in his discipline. The one with the MBA lives with relatives and recently welcomed a baby. “He’s been painting houses,” Dixon, 74, said from Little Falls, N.Y. “Wintertime up here, you don’t do much painting.”

¶ Debt is also a concern of those young enough to inherit its growing weight down the road. It’s what Eric Tolbert, 19, a Purdue University student from West Lafayette, Ind., most wants the government to fix. “I think it will be all talk at first,” he says of the promises to cut spending. “But we may see more progress in a year or two.”

¶ Says James Lenoir, 41, an Aberdeen, Miss., car salesman: “The economy is in a bad fix. Job creation is one of the most important things the country needs. There has been progress but not enough, fast enough.”

¶ Can the parties work together? Lenoir glumly predicts not. “On most issues, it’s going to be gridlock.”

¶ Health care plays out in public opinion in ways as complicated as the law itself. Angie Wyatt, 46, an Alexandria, Ky., middle school teacher and mother of six, calls for the law to be repealed because “I don’t like government control.” But she does like one of its principal elements: the government’s prohibition on denying health insurance to people who have been sick.

¶ In Chattanooga, Taylor, the 46-year-old nurse, says she is well aware of abuses in the medical system, as one who pores over itemized hospital bills to be paid by the health insurer she works for. And she figures Obama’s law may not be good for health insurers.

¶ She’s willing to take that chance.

¶ “I’ve seen the system abusers, but those are the people you hear about,” she says. “You don’t hear about the old ladies who are buying four pills at a time at Walmart because that’s all they can afford.”

¶ Taylor’s daughter, 22, has celiac disease, an autoimmune intestinal disorder that has required expensive treatments and will follow her through life.

¶ “She was just about to age out of my insurance coverage,” Taylor said. “We were starting to get on the panicky side. Without insurance, we would be bankrupt.” Her husband, disabled in a car accident, is helped with medical bills by Medicare.

¶ Now, the health care law entitles children to stay on their parents’ plans until they turn 26, three years longer than before and without the condition that they be full-time students.

¶ And by 2014, insurers will need to accept all applicants regardless of medical history. Insurers will also be prohibited from charging higher premiums to those in poor health.

¶ ”If the House will quit being silly and trying to overturn it,” she says of the law, “there will be something there for her.”

¶ Employment was the top single issue identified by those interviewed, mentioned by 23 percent. Only two other individual issues topped 10 percent: fixing or reforming health care at 15 percent, and fixing the economy at 14 percent.

¶ Six percent set aside material worries to say they want bipartisan cooperation above all else.

¶ The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

¶ ___

¶ AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and writer Will Lester contributed to this report.

¶ ___

¶ Online:

¶ http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

¶ ___

¶ Online:

¶ http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

¶ The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

¶ Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

¶ As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use _ landline only, cell only and both types _ by region.

¶ No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.2 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled.

¶ There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

¶ The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Jan
21

Nation gives Obama high marks on personality, lower marks on economic progress

By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer

Thumbs up for President Barack Obama’s personality. Thumbs down for his progress.

An overwhelming majority of Americans like Obama, but most say he hasn’t accomplished much on two top goals — fixing the sluggish economy and changing how Washington works, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll midway through the first term of his presidency.

Half of those surveyed say he deserves a second term, and independents, whose support will be critical in 2012, are evenly divided on that question. Obama is getting the benefit of the doubt despite concerns about his policies, a reflection based in large part on his likability.

“He’s doing a pretty good job,” says Alan Bliven, 54, of Tucson, Ariz. “I’m not all sold on him,” but the president’s performance is good enough that he should be re-elected.

Joanne Abbott, 46, of Sebring, Fla., disagrees.

“I don’t dislike Obama. I like him as a person,” she says, but adds, “I don’t think he’s accomplished much. … I wish the economy would come back.”

The AP-GfK poll is a snapshot in time, and plenty could happen between now and November 2012, including an economic upturn that could cut the 9.4 percent unemployment rate. But, in a polarized nation, the findings portend a competitive presidential race no matter who the GOP candidate is.

Although beating an incumbent is tough, Republicans sense an opening, given the sluggish economic recovery and Obama’s acknowledged failure to fulfill his promise of doing business differently in a partisan Washington.

Overall, 53 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is governing, putting him roughly in the middle when compared with his modern-day successors halfway through their first terms.

Almost as many people rate Obama’s presidency below average (34 percent) as call it above average (38 percent). Forty-one percent overall — and 30 percent among independents — say he understands the important issues the nation will face the next two years. Only 26 percent say he’s kept most of his campaign promises.

Americans diverge over whether Obama’s prescriptions are best.

“He’s too much of a socialist, he wants too big of a government, and he shouldn’t get re-elected,” said 72-year-old Tom Wilkinson of Sparland, Ill. “I’m sick and tired of Chicago politics, and I think that’s where he comes out of.”

Art Winstanley, 58, of Key West, Fla., says Obama deserves more time. “Some things he’s done are taking time to kick in with the public. He’s got two years before people go ‘Holy smoke, this guy did a lot of good stuff!’”

Despite his lukewarm policy marks, Obama has an enormous advantage because of how people see him personally; a whopping 83 percent call him likable, and 59 percent view him favorably. Majorities also consider him empathetic (63 percent), a strong leader (62 percent), and in-touch with ordinary Americans (61 percent).

The numbers are similar to the ones President Ronald Reagan faced before winning a second term in 1984.

Still, the AP-GfK poll shows areas of vulnerability as Obama governs and campaigns:

—More than half disapprove of how he’s handled the economy. Just 35 percent say it’s improved on his watch; 40 percent said that a year ago. It’s driven largely by lower-income people as well as those in the Northeast and the West who are losing faith in Obama’s ability to orchestrate a turnaround. Three-quarters do say it’s unrealistic to expect noticeable improvements after two years; they say it will take longer.

—Roughly a third — 34 percent — say Obama hasn’t lived up to his promise of change, an increase from 27 percent last January. More Democrats argue he’s kept that pledge, while more Republicans say he’s broken it. Overall, 42 percent say it’s too soon to tell. People are split over his pace of change: 36 percent say too much, too quickly, 32 percent say it’s about right, 31 percent say he’s not moving fast enough. More independents want to see Obama move quicker than not.

—Fifty-one percent of independents approve of his job performance, an uptick since November as Obama reached out to Republicans — and compromised with them on taxes — in a new era of divided government. But just 30 percent score his presidency above average or better, a slippage from 37 percent a year ago. And independents divide about evenly on whether he deserves to be re-elected: 46 percent say yes, 43 percent no. He still has trouble with support among men and whites; they are more apt than women and nonwhites to want him fired.

—Despite vocal complaints from the left, the poll shows evidence that Obama’s base isn’t nearly as fractured as it has seemed. Democrats overwhelmingly give him high marks. Liberal Democrats are more likely to call Obama’s presidency outstanding or above average than even moderate Democrats. And there’s no difference between the two groups over whether Obama should face a primary challenge; majorities of both groups say no. It’s largely a moot point as no serious challenger has emerged.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

___

Associated Press Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writer Philip Elliott contributed to this report.

Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Barack Obama was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers. Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

Jan
16

Raw emotions ease over Obama’s health care overhaul; 1 in 4 back complete repeal

By JENNIFER AGIESTA and RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR

As lawmakers shaken by the shooting of a colleague return to the health care debate, an Associated Press-GfK poll finds raw feelings over President Barack Obama’s overhaul have subsided.

Ahead of a vote on repeal in the GOP-led House this week, strong opposition to the law stands at 30 percent, close to the lowest level registered in AP-GfK surveys dating to September 2009.

The nation is divided over the law, but the strength and intensity of the opposition appear diminished. The law expands coverage to more than 30 million uninsured, and would require, for the first time, that most people in the United States carry health insurance.

The poll finds that 40 percent of those surveyed said they support the law, while 41 percent oppose it. Just after the November congressional elections, opposition stood at 47 percent and support was 38 percent.

As for repeal, only about one in four say they want to do away with the law completely. Among Republicans support for repeal has dropped sharply, from 61 percent after the elections to 49 percent now.

Also, 43 percent say they want the law changed so it does more to re-engineer the health care system. Fewer than one in five say it should be left as it is.

“Overall, it didn’t go as far as I would have liked,” said Joshua Smith, 46, a sales consultant to manufacturers who lives in Herndon, Va. “In a perfect world, I’d like to see them change it to make it more encompassing, but judging by how hard it was to get it passed, they had to take whatever they could get.”

His extended family has benefited from the law. A sister-in-law in her early 20s, previously uninsured, was able to get on her father’s policy. “She’s starting out as a real estate agent, and there’s no health care for that,” said Smith. The law allows young adults to stay on a parent’s plan until they turn 26.

Congress stepped back last week to honor victims of the rampage in Tucson, Ariz., that left Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., facing a long and uncertain recovery from a bullet through her brain.

There’s no evidence the gunman who targeted Giffords was motivated by politics, but the aftermath left many people concerned about the venom in public life. A conservative Democrat, Giffords had been harshly criticized for voting in favor of the health overhaul, and won re-election by a narrow margin.

House Republican leaders say they’re working to keep this week’s debate — and expected vote Wednesday — from degenerating into a shouting match, but it depends on the Democrats, too. Republicans want a thoughtful discussion about substantive policy differences, said Brad Dayspring, a spokesman for Rep. Eric Cantor, the No. 2 GOP leader. The AP-GfK poll was under way when the attack in Tucson took place Jan. 8.

Opposition to the law remains strongest among Republicans. Seventy-one percent of them say they’re against it, as compared with 35 percent of independents and 19 percent of Democrats. Republicans won back control of the House partly on a promise to repeal what they dismissively term as “Obamacare.”

“I just think that the liberal left is more going for socialized medicine, and I don’t think that works well,” said Earl Ray Fye, 66, a farmer from Pennsylvania Furnace, Pa., and a conservative Republican. “It just costs too much. This country better get concerned about getting more conservative.”

One of the major Republican criticisms of the law found wide acceptance in the poll, suggesting a vulnerability that GOP politicians can continue to press.

Nearly six in 10 oppose the law’s requirement that people carry health insurance except in cases of financial hardship. Starting in 2014, people will have to show that they’re covered either through an employer, a government program, or under their own plan.

Rich Johnson, 34, an unemployed laborer from Caledonia, Wis., said he thinks the heart of the law is good. “The problem I have with it is mandating insurance so that you have to have it or you’ll get fines,” said Johnson, an independent. “I just don’t think people should be forced to have it. The rest of it, I have no problem with.”

The individual mandate started out as a Republican idea during an earlier health care debate in the 1990s. More recently, Massachusetts enacted such a requirement under GOP Gov. Mitt Romney and the Democratic Legislature. Nowadays, most conservatives are against it, and GOP state attorneys general are suing to have the mandate overturned as unconstitutional.

Other major provisions of the law, including a requirement that insurers accept people with pre-existing medical conditions, got support from half or more of the public in the poll.

Loralyn Conover, 42 a former music teacher with multiple sclerosis, says she hopes repeal goes nowhere. Senate Democrats say they’ll block it.

The new law “opens the door for people like me to have some kind of pay-as-you-go health insurance,” said Conover, of Albuquerque, N.M. “It’s nice to be able to have something . and not be dropped in the cracks of society.” She couldn’t get health insurance when she was first diagnosed, but is now covered by Medicare.

____

Associated Press writers Douglass Daniel, Bradley Klapper and Michele Salcedo contributed to this report.

____

Online:

Poll questions and results: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the AP health care poll was conducted

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the health care bill was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10, 2011. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education, and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Jan
14

Japanese distrust leaders after disasters; majority favor reducing nuclear plants

By MALCOM FOSTER, Associated Press

TOKYO (AP) — This year’s tsunami and nuclear disasters have severely shaken the Japanese public’s confidence in their government, and many are pessimistic about the country’s future, an Associated Press-GfK poll has found.

The results released Thursday also show that Japanese generally distrust their leaders and that nearly 60 percent believe the country is heading in the wrong direction — a sobering welcome for Japan’s new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, elected this week.

Five months after the triple catastrophes — the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident — nearly three-quarters of the people lack confidence in the government’s ability to handle another major disaster. Eighty percent felt deeply that leaders were not telling them the truth about the crises, and a slight majority want to reduce the number of nuclear reactors in the nation.

Overall, Japanese are gloomy about the state of their country, currently and in the future.

Nearly two-thirds believe Japan is a weaker international power than it was 10 years ago, and a startling 84 percent of respondents believe the economy, overtaken by China’s to slide to third globally, is in poor shape. Some 44 percent believe children born today will be worse off when they grow up than people are now.

That pessimism reflects the complex mix of problems and attitudes confronting Noda as he replaces Naoto Kan, whose 15-month tenure ended amid widespread criticism of his administration’s handling of the disasters.

Some 100,000 residents from around the damaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant remain dislocated with no clear idea when they will be able to return to their homes. Residents in the scores of towns and villages along the tsunami-wracked northeastern coast are still cleaning up and fault the central government for being preoccupied with the nuclear crisis.

Tokyo Electric Power Co., owner of the plant, received a harsh assessment, with 8 in 10 people disapproving of its response to the disaster, while Kan and the nuclear safety agency got thumbs down from three-quarters of respondents.

However, the Japanese military, which mobilized quickly in relief work after the tsunami, got positive reviews from 9 out of 10 people, the AP-GfK poll found.

Since the March 11 disasters, some 82 percent doubted the government’s ability to help them in the event of such an emergency — cited as a deep feeling by 82 percent. Three quarters reported feeling generally less safe than before March 11, and two-thirds were angry that relief was slow in reaching victims.

Americans’ emotions following Hurricane Katrina and the flooding of New Orleans were less intense and focused more on anger (67 percent reporting this as a deep feeling) than fears for their personal safety, cited by 30 percent, or doubts about the government’s ability to help them in a disaster (44 percent).

The widespread disappointment reflected in the poll is “sad, but it shows that people are looking at things honestly” and that they believe the response to the disasters “has been unsatisfactory,” said Tetsuro Kato, a political science professor at Waseda University.

“The disasters could have been used to chart a new direction” for Japan and its leaders, “but that didn’t happen,” Kato said. “It was a missed opportunity.”

“Some probably want to scream,” Kato said.

The Fukushima accident has triggered debate in Japan about the future role of nuclear power in this earthquake-prone nation, which got 30 percent of its electricity from atomic power plants before the accident. The government has since scrapped its plan to boost that level to 50 percent by 2030.

The poll found that few in Japan have confidence in the nation’s nuclear power plants — only 5 percent were either extremely or very confident, while 60 percent had little or no confidence.

A slight majority, 55 percent, want to reduce the number of atomic power plants, while 35 percent would like to leave the number about the same. Four percent want an increase while 3 percent want to eliminate them entirely.

Overall, 59 percent felt the country was headed in the wrong direction, while 63 percent believe Japan’s international power is weaker than 10 years ago.

“From abroad, Japan appears to be turning inward,” said Kato, who was in the U.S. last week. He also bemoaned the lack of robust debate about the nuclear crisis in the brief campaign among candidates who fought to replace Kan — a race Noda won.

Still, on a personal level a majority of Japanese, or 56 percent, say they are happy with the way things are going in their lives. Just 11 percent consider themselves mostly unhappy, while a third are neither happy or unhappy.

More women say they are happy than men (65 percent versus 47 percent). Married people also say they are happier than singles (60 percent versus 47 percent).

The AP-GfK telephone poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications surveyed 1,000 adults across Japan between July 29 and Aug. 10, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Recovery from the quake and tsunami is clearly viewed as the top priority for the nation, cited as the most important goal Japan over the next 10 years by nearly all surveyed. Nine in 10 said recovering from events of March 11 was the most serious problem facing the country.

The aging population was viewed as the second most serious problem, cited by 78 percent as either very or extremely serious.

Third was the lack of a stable government, cited by nearly three-quarters — highlighted by Noda’s recent appointment as the sixth prime minister in five years.

But respondents were divided over whether they favored a fixed four-year term for the prime minister, similar to the U.S. president. Thirty percent favored such a change, while 31 percent opposed it, and 38 percent took neither stance.

No branch of the government has the trust of a majority to do the right thing most of the time. Sixty-five percent trust the parliament to do so less than half the time, and 59 percent hold that view of the Cabinet.

Also, a whopping 85 percent say elected officials are more interested in serving special interests than the people they represent.

On the economic front, 70 percent said conditions are worse today than five years ago, and about a third predicted that they would be worse five years from now — although 42 percent believed they would be about the same.

As in the U.S., the Japanese rate their own personal finances more highly than the nation’s economy.

Still, just 19 percent rate their finances as excellent or in good shape, 53 percent say they are fair and 28 percent say they are poor. About a third say their family’s financial health has declined in the last five years, 13 percent think it’s gotten better and 52 percent say it’s held steady.

____

On the Web: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The survey sample frame includes Japanese households that have at least one fixed telephone landline, or about 91 percent of all Japanese households, and represents the national population of Japan age 18 and older living in the 47 prefectures (states).

Interviews were conducted in Japanese by live interviewers in a Tokyo-based telephone interviewing center.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Jan
14

Americans say they will honor King holiday

Despite having their first black president, Americans are no more certain than before that the country is closer to the racial equality preached by Martin Luther King Jr., a poll shows.

Seventy-seven percent of people interviewed in an AP-GfK poll say there has been significant progress toward King’s dream, about the same as the 75 percent who felt that way in 2006, before Obama was elected. Just over one in five, 22 percent, say they feel there has been “no significant progress” toward that dream.

“The exuberance and thrill of seeing an African American elected to the presidency has been tempered by the outrageous claims that we’ve heard about him,” said William Jelani Cobb, a history professor at Rutgers University.

Real concerns that King fought for remain, even with a black president, he said.

“And the violent rhetoric we’ve seen directed towards (Obama) diminishes the initial sentiment that we’ve made great progress because of the election,” he said.

The poll also reveals that more people plan to celebrate Monday’s federal holiday honoring King — 30 percent, compared to 23 percent who had such plans five years ago. That includes 46 percent of non-whites, 38 percent of college graduates, 36 percent who live in urban areas and 36 percent who attend religious services at least weekly, according to the poll.

Some communities in the South, including around Atlanta, where schools have been closed because of a snow and ice storm, have decided to make up one of the days on MLK Day, upsetting some African-American groups.

In 1994, Congress added community service as a focus of the federal holiday, which marks its 25th anniversary this year. More than one million Americans are expected to participate in 13,000 projects around the country on the King Day of Service, said Patrick Corvington, head of the Corporation for National and Community Service, the federal agency charged with administering service projects on the King holiday.

“The focus on service has allowed for a different kind of conversation about Dr. King and what he was about,” Corvington said. “It allows all people to connect with Dr. King in different ways.”

The new poll also shows most of the nation in support of the King holiday. Three-quarters of those surveyed this year say King’s birthday should be so honored, with 84 percent of non-white respondents believing so, compared to 68 percent of white respondents. Younger adults are also more apt to feel the birthday deserves the honor, as 81 percent among those under 50 years old supported the holiday, compared to 66 percent among those 50 to 64 and 62 percent among seniors.

The civil rights icon, who would have turned 82 on Saturday, is the only American who was not a U.S. president honored with a federal holiday.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted January 5-10, 2010 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

___

Associated Press Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the Poll was Conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Martin Luther King Jr. Day was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10, 2011. It is based on landline telephone and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com.

Jan
12

Obama, Republicans in Congress get higher marks after season of compromise

Americans give higher marks to President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans after a holiday season of compromise paid dividends for both, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll.

At the start of the divided government era, the survey found that 53 percent of Americans approve of how Obama is doing his job, his best numbers since the divisive health care vote 10 months ago.

And, compared with just after the November elections, more now express confidence that Obama and the new Republican-controlled House can work together to solve the country’s most urgent problems, chief among them the struggling economy.

“It’s going to be difficult because there are some bleeding-heart liberals way over on the left and some uptight conservatives,” said Spirit Fliege, 83, a Republican from Brentwood, Calif. “It’s going to take someone who can operate very smoothly. Whether Obama can or not, we don’t know.”

Most people, according to the poll, now are putting their faith in Republicans to implement the changes needed to fix the economy. But a majority also now view the Democrats favorably, an oddity just two months after voters dealt Obama’s party what he called “a shellacking” in congressional elections.

Still, despite expressing more optimism in certain areas, Americans are down on Congress itself. And roughly half express anger with American politics, while disappointment and frustration remain with politicians of all stripes.

“They’re totally ignoring the people. They make all kinds of promises and put the shaft to the people,” said Sandy Parton, 66, of Honey Grove, Texas. “I’ve seen them say one thing and do another.”

The period during which the poll was conducted included last Saturday, when a shooting rampage in Arizona left six dead and several more injured, including a congresswoman, and touched off debate over the caustic nature of American politics.

The December lame-duck session of Congress left an imprint on Americans who had made it clear in November that they were tired of one-party rule in Washington and hungry for bipartisanship.

In a bow to that desire as 2010 ended, Obama struck a deal with Republicans to extend temporarily all the Bush-era tax cuts. And he has indicated a willingness to work with new House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, on several other issues, including looming trade deals and the reauthorization of an education law.

Some people like what they see.

“He’s doing the best he can with what he was handed,” said Richard Cambell, 42, a truck driver from Rockingham, N.C., who says Obama deserves a second term.

The poll found that since the year began:

—Obama improved his job-performance rating by 6 percentage points, up from 47 percent just after the November elections. Disapproval is at 46 percent. He scored higher marks on handling the economy, too, as the unemployment rate edged down to 9.4 percent; 47 percent now approve, compared with 41 percent two months ago. And 59 percent view him favorably, while 40 percent view him unfavorably.

—Boehner became better known to the general public in his first foray on the political scene as a national leader. And impressions of him were about evenly divided, with 34 percent viewing him positively and 31 percent viewing him negatively.

—Republicans in Congress got a slight bump, too, though they are not nearly as popular as Obama. Now, 36 percent give them high marks, compared with 29 percent last fall. But the increase was driven entirely by people who identify themselves as Republicans. Support among independents did not change.

—On the question of whether Obama and Republicans can work in a bipartisan manner to solve what ails the country, 48 percent express some degree of optimism and 52 percent express some level of pessimism. It’s an improvement from just after the elections, when 41 percent were confident and 58 percent were not.

—Democrats generally are back to being viewed in a positive light by most Americans — 53 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable. That’s better than at any point during the height of the 2010 campaign. Views of the Republican Party are evenly split at 48 percent.

—More than half — 56 percent — say they are confident that the GOP can improve the economy, though slightly less — 51 percent — say they think Republicans in Congress will actually implement their campaign policy promises. And relatively few think Republicans in Congress understand the important short-term issues the country must focus on.

—People still aren’t hot on Congress: 69 percent disapprove, 26 percent approve. And nearly 6 in 10 still say the nation is heading in the wrong direction.

—Democrats slightly improved their standing on most issues, most notably surpassing Republicans on handling the economy for the first time since June: 45 percent trust the Democrats to handle it, 40 percent the Republicans. Democrats also pulled even with Republicans on managing the federal budget deficit, and they expanded their advantage on handling health care.

The poll was conducted Jan. 5-10 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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Associated Press Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta, News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and Associated Press writer Philip Elliott contributed to this report.

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Online: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

How the poll was conducted

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on Congress and politics was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Jan. 5-10. It is based on landline telephone and cell phone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,001 adults. Interviews were conducted with 701 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cell phone numbers.

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

By LIZ SIDOTI, AP National Political Writer