By MARK SHERMAN, Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans overwhelmingly want the president and Congress to get to work on a new bill to change the health care system if the Supreme Court strikes down President Barack Obama’s 2010 overhaul as unconstitutional, a new poll finds.

A new health care bill doesn’t seem to be in either party’s plans on the verge of the high court’s verdict on the law aimed at extending health insurance to more than 30 million Americans who now lack coverage. Republicans say they will try to repeal whatever’s left of the law after the high court rules and then wait at least until after the November elections to push replacement measures. Democrats say Obama will push to put in place whatever survives.

But an Associated Press-GfK poll shows that more than three-fourths of Americans do not want their political leaders to leave the health care system alone in the event the court throws out the health care law.

Large majorities of both opponents and backers of the law share the view that Congress and the president should undertake a new effort. The lowest level of support for new health care legislation comes from people who identify themselves as strong supporters of the tea party. Even in that group, though, nearly 60 percent favor work on a new bill.

Gary Hess, a Republican from Discovery Bay, Calif., wants the high court to throw out the entire law.

But Hess, 77, said he favors the provision requiring insurance companies to cover people regardless of their medical condition. “There needs to be compromise on both sides,” the retired school administrator said.

Garrett Chase, 51, said he hopes the court leaves the law in place but agreed with Hess that the politicians should get back to work if this law is struck down. “I live in the ghetto, and I see people dying every day,” said Chase, an unemployed car salesman from Baltimore. “They can’t get help because they can’t afford it.”

The call for new legislation comes even as just a third of Americans support the landmark health care law. The overall level of support for the law is relatively unchanged in recent months, with 47 percent opposing it. But among independents, only 21 percent approve of the law, a new low in AP-GfK polling.

Most of the law’s major changes have yet to take effect, including the requirement that most people have health insurance or pay a penalty. The insurance mandate has been among the least popular aspects of the law. Provisions that have gone into effect include extended coverage for young adults on their parents’ insurance and relief for seniors with high prescription drug costs.

A narrow majority say the outcome of this year’s presidential contest between Obama and his presumed challenger, Republican Mitt Romney, will have a big effect on the nation’s health care system. Republicans, at 58 percent, are most likely to see a link between the election and health care. Forty-eight percent of Democrats and 42 percent of independents believe the election will have a great deal of impact on the health care system.

Obama’s approval rating on handling health care was unchanged compared with polls in May and February. Forty-eight percent approve and 50 percent disapprove of his handling of the issue. Independents’ disapproval of Obama on health care topped 50 percent for the first time since October.

The Associated Press-GfK Poll was conducted June 14-18 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,007 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

___

Associated Press writer Stacy A. Anderson, Deputy Director of Polling Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

 

___

Online:

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

 

 

How the AP-GfK poll was conducted

 

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

The Associated Press-GfK Poll on the health care law was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from June 14-18. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,007 adults. Interviews were conducted with 707 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

 

Digits in the phone numbers dialed were generated randomly to reach households with unlisted and listed landline and cellphone numbers.

 

Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.

 

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, the weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region.

 

No more than 1 time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled.

 

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

 

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

Topline results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com and http://surveys.ap.org

AP-GfK Poll: Election indicators suggest GOP edge

By, JENNIFER AGIESTA, Associated Press

(AP) – The latest Associated Press-GfK poll holds bad news for President Barack Obama, but as the November elections draw closer, there are ominous signs for congressional Democrats as well.

A look at the key findings from the March poll on this year’s election and the burgeoning 2016 presidential field.

GOP GAINING GROUND

Preferences for control of Congress are tight, but Republicans have gained on Democrats since January. Thirty-six percent in last month’s poll said they would rather see the Democrats in charge of Congress and 37 percent chose Republicans.

Democrats held a narrow advantage on that question in January, when 39 percent favored the Democrats and 32 percent the Republicans.

Democrats are in the majority in the Senate while Republicans run the House.

The shift stems largely from a change among those most interested in politics.

In the new poll, registered voters who are most strongly interested in politics favored the Republicans by 14 percentage points, 51 percent to 37 percent. In January, this group was about evenly split, with 42 percent preferring Democrats and 45 percent the Republicans.

That’s not the only positive sign in the poll for the Republicans.

Favorable views of the GOP have improved, with 38 percent overall now saying they hold a favorable impression of the Party. Republicans’ positive view of their own party has increased from 57 percent in January to 72 percent now.

Even impressions of the tea party movement have shifted more positive in recent months. GOP favorability still lags behind that of the Democrats, however, with 43 percent holding a favorable view of the Democratic Party.

___

CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL STAGNANT

Congressional approval is stagnant and negative, with just 16 percent saying they approve while 82 percent disapprove. Among those who have “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of interest in politics, 90 percent disapprove, including 61 percent who strongly disapprove.

Nearly 4 in 10 (39 percent) would like to see their own member of Congress re-elected, an improvement since January. Among registered voters who say they pay a great deal of attention to politics, 44 percent say they would like to see their current member re-elected, compared with 33 percent in January.

Here, there’s a glimmer of hope for Democrats. Those who consider themselves Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say their own member of Congress ought to be re-elected. Not all Democrats live in districts represented by Democrats, of course, but it represents a shift in opinion since January.

___

WHO’S IN CHARGE

With control of Congress divided between the parties, most Americans say Obama has a lot or quite a bit of control over what the federal government does, outpacing the share who say the Democrats or Republicans in Congress are in control.

Partisans tend to see the opposition as the controlling force, with Republicans more apt than Democrats to see Obama in charge, and Democrats more likely to say the Republicans have the upper hand.

Six in 10 (62 percent) of those with a great deal or quite a bit of interest in politics say Obama has a lot or quite a bit of control of what the federal government does. Just half (51 percent) of those closely attuned to politics say Democrats in Congress exert a similar influence over what the federal government does and 40 percent say the same about Republicans in Congress.

There’s little change since December in which party Americans trust more to handle major issues.

Democrats’ strong points are on handling social issues, including same-sex marriage (31 percent prefer Democrats, 17 percent the Republicans) and abortion (30 percent prefer Democrats, 22 percent Republicans). Republicans have the edge on protecting the country, 34 percent to 16 percent, a slightly wider margin than they held on the question in December.

___

LOOKING TO 2016? NOT SO MUCH

The poll measured impressions of 19 potential 2016 presidential candidates, and found that a majority of those surveyed offered an opinion about just seven of them. The other 12 have quite a lot of introducing themselves to do if they are to make a run for the White House.

Most people said either they hadn’t heard of them or skipped the question.

Hillary Rodham Clinton generated the most positive response of the bunch, with 46 percent viewing the former secretary of state and first lady favorably and 39 percent unfavorably.

Among potential GOP contenders, none generated a net positive reaction from the public, with 2012 vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan faring best – 27 percent viewed him favorably, 29 percent unfavorably.

Among Republicans, majorities have favorable impressions of Ryan and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. But in a sign that the past isn’t always prologue, nearly half of Republicans say they don’t know enough to have an opinion about former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, a large factor in the 2012 nomination fight.

___

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted March 20-24, 2014 using KnowledgePanel, GfK’s probability-based online panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. It involved online interviews with 1,012 adults, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for all respondents.

Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and were later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided with the ability to access the Internet at no cost to them.

___

AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

___

Online:

AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

___

Follow Jennifer Agiesta on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/JennAgiesta


AP-GfK poll: Fans believe Florida will top tourney

NEW YORK (AP) — A new poll from The Associated Press and GfK says that the quarter of Americans who are following this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament believe the Gators are the overwhelming favorites to win it all.

Twenty-nine percent of those with at least some interest in March Madness think Billy Donovan’s Florida team will take home this year’s crown.

The poll also found about 5 percent of Americans are following news about the tournament extremely closely, 6 percent are following very closely and 14 percent somewhat closely.

The AP-GfK poll was conducted online March 20-24 among 1,019 adults from a probability-based panel. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

___

Online:

AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com