By LAURIE KELLMAN, The Associated Press

Who believes they’ll be a millionaire?

About two in 10 Americans, who are less optimistic than Australians but more optimistic than Britons about becoming wealthy in the next ten years, according to a new AP-CNBC poll.

In all three countries, more than seven in 10 of those surveyed said they were unlikely to become millionaires in the next decade.

Reflecting the psychic toll of the global economic doldrums, solid majorities of Americans — 61 percent — and Britons — 63 percent — say it’s extremely or very difficult for their countrymen to become millionaires today.

“It’s an unrealistic thing for anybody to assume,” said Jason Hall, 35, a heavy equipment operator in Loganville, Wis.

Across the pond, 19-year-old Natasha Hill, an apprentice at a London hair salon, said many of her friends looking for work amid high unemployment have essentially given up.

“There’s no determination, nothing to aim for,” Hill said. “Everyone is in robot mode — they just settle.”

On the flip side of the planet, just 35 percent of Australians feel the same way, the results found.

“Oh, yes, yes, yes you can” become a millionaire, said Australian student Hannah Peters, 21. “Anybody can become a millionaire. There are so many opportunities here. You just have to know how to go about it.”

The Aussies have reason to be so darned sunny.

Unemployment there is 5.3 percent, nearly half the United States’ 9.1 percent. Just under 8 percent of Brits are out of work. And a natural resources boom in Western Australia is helping grow the country’s economy about 3 percent this year, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund. The equivalent figure for the United Kingdom is 1.7 percent and for the U.S. economy, 2.8 percent, though many private economists expect it to be lower.

Still, becoming a millionaire was tough to imagine for many Down Under.

“My pay is lousy and I spend it,” said Tasmanian Brian Draney, a 47 year-old lineman and father of two young children.

Polling last month by The Associated Press and CNBC found that Australians are the most optimistic of the bunch, with 29 percent of respondents there saying they feel good about their prospects of eventually becoming a millionaire in the next decade, compared with 21 percent in the U.S. and just 8 percent in the U.K.

In reality, the United States leads the world in millionaires, more than 5.2 million of them in 2010, or nearly one in every 20 households, according to The Boston Consulting Group’s latest annual global wealth report. Great Britain had 570,000 millionaires, or about one in every 45 households. Australia had 133,000 or about one in every 60 households, but that’s an increase of 35,000 over the previous year.

The BCG survey measured millionaires in terms of U.S. dollars. Those polled by AP and CNBC were asked how likely it was that they’d be worth a million of their own monetary unit – U.S. dollars, Australian dollars or British pounds. One million American dollars is worth about 964,000 Australian dollars, and about 633,000 British pounds.

But the difference is academic when large majorities never think they’ll have such fortunes to their names.

“I’ll never make a million, because my family is bleeding me dry,” said Brian Bolton, a married 47-year-old civil servant in Brisbane, Australia, who has two young children. “Every day my bank balance is substantially lighter and I don’t know where it goes.”

Asked to imagine being millionaires, residents of all three countries had similar priorities for spending it: The bulk of them said they would save it, invest it, buy real estate, pay down debt and share with family, the survey said.

Respondents across the board listed “saving or investing” as their first priority. The last priority? Americans and Australians listed “giving away to charity.”

“I’d give charity a taste,” said Draney, the lineman from the Australian island state of Tasmania. On second thought: “That’s just asking for trouble because then they’d annoy me for the rest of my life.”

Brits left “paying down debt” for last, the polls showed.

Wail Al-Dour, 26, has trouble even envisioning himself as a millionaire. His chosen career, filmmaking, is tough to break into.

“The environment right now is hard,” he said in London. “Everyone thinks they’re going to be just scraping by.”

Back at the London hair salon, Charlotte Hagan-Boyla, 19, confesses to “spending money the day I get it.”

But becoming a millionaire, she thinks, isn’t out of the question. You could win the lottery, she reasoned, or you could work your way up.

“Or,” she added, “you could always marry a rich man.”

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Associated Press Writers Cassandra Vinograd in London, Rod McGuirk in Canberra, Australia and Christopher S. Rugaber in Washington and Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

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On the Web:

http://www.cnbc.com

http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com

 

 

How the poll was conducted

 

By The Associated Press

 

The Associated Press-CNBC Poll on becoming a millionaire was conducted in the United States, U.K. and Australia.

The poll in the United States was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications from Aug. 18-22. It is based on landline and cellphone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,000 adults. Interviews were conducted with 700 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

The AP-CNBC Poll of the U.K. was conducted Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 9-11 via GfK NOP Consumer’s weekly omnibus survey. The August interviews are based on landline interviews with 1,000 adults age 16 and over in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The September interviews include 1,006 different adults age 16 and over in the same countries.

The AP-CNBC Poll in Australia was conducted Aug. 26-28 and Sept. 13-15 via an Australian national telephone omnibus survey overseen by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It is based on 1,000 landline interviews age 18 and over. The September interviews were re-interviews of 699 of the original respondents. Broad age quotas were applied to the sample and interviews were split between males and females within each geographical area.

For the U.S. poll, interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish. Interviews were conducted in English for the U.K. and Australia polls.

As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted, or adjusted, to ensure that responses accurately reflect the population’s makeup by factors such as age, sex, education and race. In addition, U.S. poll weighting took into account patterns of phone use — landline only, cell only and both types — by region.

No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than plus or minus 4.1 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all adults in the U.S. were polled. The margin of sampling error for the U.K. poll was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the poll in Australia.

There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions.

The questions and results are available at http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com .

 


AP-GfK Poll: Most believe allegations about Trump and women
WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump’s behavior has long grated on Carolyn Miller, but the allegations he sexually assaulted women was one factor that helped her decide in the last week to cast her ballot for Hillary Clinton.
“I don’t think she’s a bad person. Trump, I think, is a bad person,” the 70-year-old Fort Myers, Florida, resident said. As for Trump’s accusers, Miller added, “I believe them.” And she said her vote for Clinton is “a default.”

Miller is among the more than 7 in 10 Americans who say in a new Associated Press-GfK poll that they believe the women who say the Republican presidential candidate kissed or groped them without their consent, a verdict that may have turned off enough voters, including some Republicans, to add to his challenges in the presidential race.

 Forty-two percent of Republican voters and 35 percent of Trump’s own supporters think the accusations are probably true. Men and women are about equally likely to think so.

While the poll suggests the wave of allegations about Trump’s treatment of women may blunt the impact of voters’ concerns about Clinton, it was taken before Friday’s news that the FBI will investigate whether there is classified information in newly uncovered emails related to its probe of her private server. Those emails were not from her server, according to a U.S. official who was not authorized to discuss details publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Before the development, the poll found that about half of voters say her use of the private server while she was secretary of state makes them less likely to vote for her. But they were more likely to say that Trump’s comments about women bother them a lot than to say the same about Clinton’s email server, 51 percent to 43 percent.

Since September, Clinton seems to have consolidated her support within her own party and drawn undecided voters such as Miller to her campaign, or at least pushed them away from Trump. The billionaire’s recent trouble with women seems to be one factor preventing him from doing the same.

He feuded with former Miss Universe Alicia Machado after Clinton noted he’d called her “Miss Piggy” for gaining weight while she wore the crown. Days later, a 2005 recording surfaced in which Trump can be heard describing himself sexually assaulting women in a conversation with Billy Bush, then the host of “Access Hollywood.”

Several women have since publicly accused Trump of groping and kissing them without permission, including a People magazine reporter who said Trump attacked her when his wife, Melania, was out of the room.

Trump called his remarks on the video “locker room talk,” dismissed the accusations as “fiction” and said of several accusers that they aren’t attractive enough to merit his attention.

Asked Thursday on Fox News Channel’s “The O’Reilly Factor” whether he thinks he would be ahead were it not for the “Access Hollywood” video, Trump replied, “I just don’t know. I think it was very negative.”

A majority of voters, 52 percent, say allegations about the way Trump treats women make them less likely to vote for him, including a fifth of Republican likely voters. And within that group, only about a third say they will vote for him, with about a third supporting Clinton and the remainder supporting third party candidates.

That may help explain why just 79 percent of Republican in the poll said they’re supporting Trump compared with 90 percent of Democrats supporting Clinton. Trump needs to close that gap to have any shot at victory.

Trump has tried to equate the accusations against him with charges of infidelity and sexual assault leveled for years against his rival’s husband, former President Bill Clinton. Trump has paraded the former president’s accusers before the cameras and accused Hillary Clinton of undermining her husband’s accusers.

The poll shows a majority of voters don’t buy Trump’s attempt at equivalence. Six in 10 say the allegations against the Clintons have no impact on their vote. That’s despite the fact that 63 percent think Hillary Clinton has probably threatened or undermined women who have accused her husband of sexual misconduct.

“The vote will be about Hillary Clinton, not her husband,” said Ryan Otteson, 33, of Salt Lake City, who’s voting for a third-party candidate, conservative independent Evan McMullin.

Valori Waggoner, a 26-year-old from Belton, Texas, said she believes Hillary Clinton probably did intimidate her husband’s accusers, but she said it makes no difference to how Waggoner is voting.

Waggoner was not going to vote for Clinton anyway, because as a doctor, Waggoner said she sees firsthand the inefficiency of the national health care plan that Clinton supports. But the alleged wrongdoing by Trump made her less likely to vote for the Republican. Instead, she’s backing Libertarian Gary Johnson.

The degree of alleged wrongdoing by the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, Waggoner said, “are not equal.”

Most likely voters in the poll say they think Trump has little to no respect for women, with female voters especially likely to say he has none at all.

Clinton leads female likely voters by a 22 point margin in the poll, and even has a slight 5 point lead among men. In September’s AP-GfK poll, Clinton led women by a 17 point margin and trailed slightly by 6 points among men.

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The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free.

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Online:

Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com


AP-GfK poll: Most Trump supporters doubt election legitimacy

By Jonathan Lemire and Emily Swanson

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Donald Trump’s dubious claims the presidential election is “rigged” have taken root among most of his supporters, who say they will have serious doubts about the legitimacy of the election’s outcome if Hillary Clinton wins, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll.

Just 35 percent of Trump’s supporters say they will most likely accept the results of the election as legitimate if Clinton wins, while 64 percent say they’re more likely to have serious doubts about the accuracy of the vote count if the Republican nominee is not the victor.

“Of course I believe it’s rigged, and of course I won’t accept the results,” said Mike Cannilla, 53, a Trump supporter from the New York borough of Staten Island. “It’s from the top: Obama is trying to take over the country, he’s covering up all of Hillary’s crimes and he’s controlling the media trying to make Trump lose.”

“Our only chance on Nov. 9 is if the military develops a conscience and takes matters into its own hands,” Cannilla said.

By contrast, 69 percent of Clinton’s supporters say they’ll accept the outcome if Trump wins. Only 30 percent of the Democratic nominee’s backers express a reluctance to accept the results if the former secretary of state loses on Election Day.

Overall, 77 percent of likely voters say they’ll accept the legitimacy of the results if Trump wins, while 70 percent say the same of a Clinton win.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump has made doubts about the integrity of the U.S. election system a cornerstone of his closing argument. Asked directly at the final presidential debate if he would accept the election results, Trump refused, saying: “I will keep you in suspense.”

That extraordinary statement, with its potential to challenge the peaceful transition of power that is a hallmark of the American democracy, did little to harm him with his base of supporters. The poll found that 44 percent of all likely voters say Trump’s stance makes them less likely to support him, but the vast majority of his supporters say it doesn’t make a difference.

“He should fight it all the way,” said George Smith, 51, a Trump supporter from Roswell, Georgia. “Spend weeks in court if he has to. He can’t let it be taken from him. That’s his right.”

Trump has also repeated inaccurate claims that vote fraud is a widespread problem, and the poll finds that most of Trump’s supporters share that concern. Fifty-six percent think there’s a great deal of voter fraud, 36 percent believe there is some, and 6 percent say there’s hardly any.

Most Clinton supporters, 64 percent, think there’s hardly any voter fraud. Overall, just 27 percent of likely voters think there’s a great deal of fraud. A third of voters overall believe there is at least some, while 38 percent say there is hardly any.

While there have been isolated cases of voter fraud in the U.S., there is no evidence of it being a widespread problem. In one study, a Loyola Law School professor found 31 instances involving allegations of voter impersonation out of 1 billion votes cast in U.S. elections between 2000 and 2014.

Beyond allegations of fraud, 40 percent of Trump supporters say they have little to no confidence that votes in the election will be counted accurately. Another 34 percent say they have only a moderate amount of confidence, and just 24 percent say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in the vote count.

Among Clinton supporters, 79 percent say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in the vote count’s accuracy. Many believe Trump should voice support for the electoral system even in defeat.

“Be an adult. Accept the results,” said Shavone Danzy-Kinloch, 37, a Clinton supporter from Farmingville, New York. “If the shoe was on the other foot, he’d expect Hillary to do the same.”

Trump’s supporters are also more likely than others to say they are concerned about hackers interfering with the election. Forty-six percent of them are extremely or very concerned and 37 percent somewhat concerned. Overall, 32 percent of voters say they’re extremely to very concerned and 39 percent somewhat concerned. Among Clinton supporters, 60 percent are at least somewhat concerned.

Although the poll shows many Trump supporters would have doubts about a Clinton win, the poll shows relatively little acute concern that claims of inaccuracy and voter fraud could prevent Americans overall from accepting the results. Just 30 percent of likely voters are extremely or very concerned about that, while another 40 percent are somewhat concerned.

Twenty-nine percent say they’re not very or not at all concerned.

“If she wins, we’re all going to have live with it,” said Daniel Ricco, 76, a Trump supporter from Milford, Connecticut. “It won’t be good for the country, but there’s nothing we can do.”

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The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online Oct. 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 2.75 percentage points, and for likely voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t have access to the internet were provided access for free.

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Online:

Poll results: http://ap-gfkpoll.com

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Swanson reported from Washington.

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Follow Jonathan Lemire and AP Polling Editor Emily Swanson on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/JonLemire and http://twitter.com/El_Swan