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PREOCCUPIED BY MASS SHOOTINGS
Americans say the most important events of 2015 were a string of mass shootings, including the attacks in San Bernardino, California, and Paris, plus Islamic State group atrocities.
Fifty-seven percent of those polled say this year was worse than the last year for the world as a whole, up from the 38 percent asked that question a year ago. Only 10 percent believe 2015 was a better year than 2014, while 32 percent think there wasn’t much difference.
Americans also are much less likely than they were a year ago to believe that the current year was better for the United States — only 17 percent compared with 30 percent a year ago. Thirty-seven percent think this year was worse for the country than last year, while 44 percent don’t think there was much difference.
On a personal level, fewer than a third (29 percent) believe 2015 was better for them than 2014, while 21 percent feel it was worse, compared with 15 percent in 2014.
Interviewed separately from the poll, Jason Pruitt, a 43-year-old corporate pilot from the Detroit area, said security concerns were a factor in deciding whether to take his wife and daughter along on a Christmas trip to New York.
“We were thinking about not coming this year, because of everything that’s going on,” Pruitt said. But they went ahead “because when you change your life, the terrorists win.”
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THREE EVENTS SHARE THE TOP SPOT
Of those polled, 68 percent listed mass shootings in the U.S. as very or extremely important news events this year, including the one in San Bernardino that heightened fears of domestic terrorism, plus shootings in Charleston, South Carolina; Roseburg, Oregon; and Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Close behind, at 64 percent, were the Paris attacks that ushered in 2015, targeting Charlie Hebdo and the Jewish market, then the Bataclan concert hall and other city sites in November.
And third, at 63 percent, came the Islamic State group’s various far-flung atrocities.
Commenting on the completed poll was 32-year-old J.P. Fury, working in a food truck in Times Square.
“At this point, I’m numb to all of it,” he said. “This is nothing new. Every week there’s a new shooting somewhere in America, and there’s a new terrorist attack somewhere around the world.”
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OTHER ISSUES
Domestically, 44 percent of those polled rate as extremely or very important the deaths of blacks in encounters with police that sparked “Black Lives Matter” protests in Baltimore and Chicago.
Another 44 percent rate the deal reached to curtail Iran’s nuclear program as important, and nearly as many (42 percent) Europe’s migrant crisis.
Only 40 percent said the presidential race was important to them, with the Paris climate change conference right behind (at 38 percent), followed by the Supreme Court’s legalization of gay marriage (36 percent) and the Cuban-U.S. thaw (30 percent).
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RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR
Most Americans plan to celebrate New Year’s Eve either at home (48 percent) or at the home of a friend or family member (20 percent). Nine percent plan to be at a bar, restaurant or organized event, while just under a quarter (22 percent) don’t plan to celebrate at all.
A majority of Americans (56 percent) will watch the New Year’s Eve events in Times Square, and 95 percent of those will see it on TV.
Those findings were similar to those of the past two years.
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THE YEAR IN POP CULTURE
No single pop culture event of 2015 stands out, with fewer than four in 10 Americans rating any as memorable.
The eagerly awaited “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” was memorable only to 37 percent of those polled, and forgettable to 34 percent.
Bill Cosby’s legal woes were memorable to 36 percent; forgettable to 33 percent.
Bruce Jenner becoming Caitlyn Jenner, with a highly orchestrated publicity campaign, was forgettable to 52 percent, and Taylor Swift’s world tour to 55 percent.
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METHODOLOGY
The AP-Times Square Alliance Poll of 1,020 adults was conducted online Dec. 11-13, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll is a cooperative effort between AP and the organizers of the Times Square New Year’s Eve Celebration, the Times Square Alliance and Countdown Entertainment. The Alliance is a nonprofit group that seeks to promote Times Square, and Countdown Entertainment represents the owners of One Times Square and the New Year’s Eve Ball Drop.
Respondents were first selected randomly using phone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them.
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Online:
AP-GfK Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Support for legal abortion in the U.S. has edged up to its highest level in the past two years, with an Associated Press-GfK poll showing an apparent increase in support among Democrats and Republicans alike over the last year.
Nearly six in 10 Americans — 58 percent — now think abortion should be legal in most or all cases, up from 51 percent who said so at the beginning of the year, according to the AP-GfK survey. It was conducted after three people were killed last month in a shooting at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado.
While support for legal abortion edged up to 40 percent among Republicans in this month’s poll, from 35 percent in January, the survey found that the GOP remains deeply divided on the issue: Seven in 10 conservative Republicans said they want abortion to be illegal in most or all cases; six in 10 moderate and liberal Republicans said the opposite.
Burk, a 59-year-old computer programmer, said he tracks his beliefs on the issue to his libertarian leanings and the fact that he’s not religious. He doesn’t see the nation coming to a resolution on the divisive issue any time soon, saying hard-liners on both sides of the question are entrenched and “they’re never going to change.”
Among Democrats, 76 percent of poll respondents now think abortion should be legal all or most of the time, up slightly from 69 percent in January.
Independents are more evenly split, with 54 percent saying abortion should be legal all or most of the time, edging up from 43 percent in January.
For Larry Wiggins, who describes himself as a liberal Democrat from Henderson, North Carolina, legal access to abortion should be — but isn’t — a settled matter.
“A woman has the right to decide what she wants to do with her body,” he said flatly. “I don’t think the government has the right to interfere.”
Nefertiti Durant, a 45-year-old independent voter from Columbia, Maryland, sees abortion as more complex matter, calling it “kind of a Catch-22.” She thinks a woman should have the right to choose abortion but she’s “not so keen on the fact that just anybody can go and have an abortion.” She worries that young people may not understand the effects of the procedure, and the “deep issues” that go along with it.
Still, she said, abortion is legal and “let’s just leave it at that. … I don’t think it’s a matter of discussion.”
It undoubtedly will be up for discussion, though, in a presidential election year. All of the Republican presidential candidates say they favor restricting abortion rights. The Democratic candidates support broad abortion rights.
Interest in the issue picked up this year after anti-abortion activists began releasing undercover videos they said showed Planned Parenthood personnel negotiating the sale of fetal organs. Planned Parenthood said any payments were legally permitted reimbursements for the costs of donating organs to researchers, and it has since stopped accepting even that money. Republicans have sought to cut off federal funding for Planned Parenthood, and several GOP-governed states have tried to block Medicaid funding to the organization.
Overall, the poll found, 45 percent of Americans have a favorable opinion of Planned Parenthood, and 30 percent have an unfavorable opinion. A quarter said they don’t know enough about the organization to say.
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Respondents were first selected randomly using telephone or mail survey methods, and later interviewed online. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn’t otherwise have access to the Internet were provided access at no cost to them.
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17
WASHINGTON (AP) — Retired postal clerk Jerry Wilson likes what he hears from GOP presidential hopefuls about overturning President Barack Obama’s executive order easing deportation policies against people in the U.S. illegally.
But he’ll choose a Republican presidential nominee based on other issues — keeping American companies from moving overseas, for one. Keeping would-be attackers out of the country, for another.
“America comes first when you’re the president of the United States,” the Batavia, Ohio, resident, 67, said. “You do everything you can to keep America safe. What about migrants, people who are already here illegally? That’s not a do-or-die issue to me.”
For all of the ferocity and double-speak at the GOP debate over immigration reform, most Republicans like Wilson say the issue isn’t a decisive factor in their vote for president. Even among conservative Republicans, more than half — 56 percent — say they either prefer a candidate who would keep Obama’s immigration action in place or that they can imagine voting for a Republican presidential hopeful who would.
More broadly, more Americans — regardless of their political affiliation — favor than oppose a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who are in the United States illegally, the poll shows. Even among Republicans, — 4 in 10 of whom oppose making citizenship an option for people in the country illegally, it doesn’t seem to be a make-or-break issue in their choice for president. Four in 10 conservative Republicans and 3 in 10 tea party Republicans favor a path to citizenship for immigrants already in the country illegally.
Notably, the results from the Dec. 3 through Dec. 7 survey are unchanged since the questions were last asked in April — even after months of strong rhetoric by Republican presidential candidates, including front-runner Donald Trump, who proposes deporting the 11.5 million people in the country illegally.
The survey results are powerful data points for the GOP candidates with little more than six weeks to go before the first votes are cast in Iowa. Republican Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, both children of Cuban immigrants, are locked in an extraordinary battle for second place in the nomination fight, in large part over their positions on immigration. Rubio’s rivals had used his 2013 comprehensive immigration reform bill to cast him as a supporter of a path to citizenship for those here illegally. He hasn’t backed off that idea but has abandoned the notion of comprehensive reform on the complex issue and emphasizes border security first.
Cruz, meanwhile, is casting himself as an opponent to “legalization.” He proposed amendments to Rubio’s bill that would have massively increased legal immigration — but mostly, he says, to try to kill Rubio’s legislation.
While illegal immigration may not be a deal-breaker for Republicans on a national scale, few issues are more hotly contested on the ground in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
Some GOP conservatives often lash out at allowing people to stay in the U.S. illegally, producing an environment where Republican candidates like Rubio and Bush have been forced to distance themselves from their own more forgiving policies in the past.
But the poll shows immigration may not be the most pressing issue on Americans’ minds once voting begins in the GOP primary contest.
“No candidate fits everybody’s view,” said Terry Arnell of Tower Lakes, Ill., a retired insurance company manager who right now likes Trump. So, what will be Arnell’s priorities come election day?
“Gun rights. Securing our borders and certainly, securing as much as we can within our borders,” Arnell, 63, said. “I think it’s very important that we secure our borders now. Then, we can worry about the other illegals here.”
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online Dec. 3-7, using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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14
WASHINGTON (AP) — After terrorist attacks at home and abroad, more Americans than ever — but still less than half — support sending U.S. ground troops to fight the Islamic State, according to a new Associated Press-GfK Poll. A large majority also want a clearer explanation from President Barack Obama about his strategy to defeat the group.
The percentage of Americans who favor deploying U.S. troops to fight IS militants has risen from 31 percent to 42 percent over the past year in AP-GfK polling, although it isn’t clear whether those respondents favor a small contingent or a larger ground force that might engage in another protracted Middle Eastern war. Other national surveys in recent weeks have found similar or greater support for American ground troops.
Obama recently dispatched about 50 special operations forces to coordinate the fight in Syria, adding to the more than 3,000 troops already in Iraq. But he and most other politicians oppose sending a large American contingent to augment the U.S.-led coalition air campaign. Most Republicans running for president have not called for that, either, although Donald Trump recently said he would support 10,000 troops, a figure originally floated by South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton has pledged to keep American troops out of Syria, saying she would resist sending forces to fight Islamic militants even if there’s another terrorist attack within the U.S.
In the poll, 56 percent of Americans said the U.S. military response to the Islamic State group has not gone far enough, up from 46 percent since October 2014.
Six in 10 Republicans, but only about 3 in 10 Democrats or independents, support sending ground troops, the poll showed.
Analysts say the public desire for more action reflects growing anxiety over the Islamic State after its attack in Paris, and the shootings in San Bernardino, California, carried out by a couple apparently inspired by the group. There is also widespread unease about Obama’s strategy, which envisions a long, slow campaign of airstrikes, diplomacy, training, financial sanctions and other measures.
White House officials say Obama recognizes the need to make the case for his strategy. The president gave an Oval Office speech last week, visited the Pentagon Monday and is expected to visit a counterterrorism facility later in the week.
But Obama has pointedly made the case against a U.S. ground invasion. The U.S. military could clear the Islamic State from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria, but IS troops would return unless a local ground force was available to keep order, he said Nov, 16, after the attacks in Paris.
“Let’s assume that we were to send 50,000 troops into Syria,” Obama said. “What happens when there’s a terrorist attack generated from Yemen? Do we then send more troops into there? Or Libya, perhaps? ”
Most interviews for the AP-GfK poll, which was conducted Dec. 3-7, were completed before last Sunday’s Oval Office address, but the survey found the president had an uphill battle to allay Americans’ concerns.
Just 28 percent in the survey said Obama had clearly explained the United States’ goals in fighting the Islamic State, while 68 percent said he had not. Eighty-eight percent of Republicans and 66 percent of independents said the president had not clearly explained the goals, and even among Democrats 51 percent agreed.
Daniel Byman, a senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, said Obama’s methodical approach is unsatisfying to Americans but they would be even more displeased if the U.S. troops were dying in Syria.
“Sure, right now, Americans are baying for blood, but if three years down the road, the U.S. has 50,000 troops in Iraq and Syria and we’re taking casualties, then American are going to be saying, ‘Why did people do stupid things and put American troops at risk.”
Shibley Telhami, the Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, has himself conducted surveys showing some support for U.S. ground troops. But he doesn’t believe the public wants an all-out invasion.
“Iraq syndrome is still hanging there,” he said, referring to a hangover from the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq, “and the public doesn’t really think that war is going to solve the ISIS problem.”
One AP poll respondent, Carl Ripperton, a retired executive living near Memphis, Tennessee, said he favored a U.S. invasion if American generals determined that one was needed to defeat the Islamic State.
“It’s gotta be done,” said Ripperton, 76, a National Guard veteran and self-professed political independent. “The bombing doesn’t seem to have done anything. I would think if we just went in there and wiped them out that would take care of it. I mean they might pop up again, but at least we’d take care of this group.”
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,007 adults was conducted online using a sample drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
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Online: http://ap-gfkpoll.com
